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Covid

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Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

606 replies

mostwonderfultime · 21/07/2020 10:25

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

OP posts:
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Jrobhatch29 · 23/07/2020 10:19

@LaurieMarlow

Yes, I wasn't suggesting herd immunity through vaccination wasn't a good plan, just that herd immunity through natural infection is unlikely to work

That’s not the case either necessarily. T cells will be part of the answer as well as already existing immunity to other corona viruses.

Yep! There are loads of studies on this now. Climbdad said they are wrong though...
LaurieMarlow · 23/07/2020 10:19

There is already evidence that at least some people who had a very mild case of coronavirus can catch it a second time

Read the article I linked.

Jrobhatch29 · 23/07/2020 10:20

@Porcupineinwaiting

There is already evidence that at least some people who had a very mild case of coronavirus can catch it a second time. That makes sense - mild cases dont generate much of an immune response.

The idea of a vaccine is to produce a strong enough immune response that the person vaccinated has complete or partial (get it but mildly) protection for an acceptable period of time (usually a year plus). Once this protection wears off you would need a booster (or possibly not if there's little of it in the general population and you are low risk.

There are other factors that may possibly complicate the action of a vaccine which need to be considered and they are being. That's why it takes time.

Where is the evidence of people catching it a second time?
LaurieMarlow · 23/07/2020 10:21

said they are wrong though...

Given that climbdad doesn’t understand the very basics of scientific modelling (presume it wasn’t covered on Reddit) I don’t think we need to worry. Grin

hedgehogger1 · 23/07/2020 10:26

To be fair though @lifeafter50 I'm also a teacher and lots of people I know had symptoms. Many of those have paid for antibody tests. The only person I know with a positive antibody test is a nurse. So having had symptoms of having had Covid are worlds apart

Porcupineinwaiting · 23/07/2020 10:27

Where is the evidence of people catching it a second time?

It's starting to come out of the US. That's just about the only place it can come out of because you need a population where there was plenty of COVID both earlier in the year and now and there was testing available both then and now. Not many places in the world meet that criteria.

Please note that I said "some people" not "everybody who". Obviously people who had COVID mildly before and dont catch it again arent turning up in the ER.

Jrobhatch29 · 23/07/2020 10:34

@hedgehogger1

To be fair though *@lifeafter50* I'm also a teacher and lots of people I know had symptoms. Many of those have paid for antibody tests. The only person I know with a positive antibody test is a nurse. So having had symptoms of having had Covid are worlds apart
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

There are loads of studies now that say alot of people don't even produce antibodies but that doesn't mean they havent had cv.
This bbc article gives a good summary.

dustyparadeground · 23/07/2020 11:24

Don't believe anyone was duped but I for one was guilty of just thinking it was a far away disease that wouldn't hit the UK. When it hit we weren't ready. It does feel we will be lot more prepared in the Autumn and Winter when we get hit again

Lowprofilename · 23/07/2020 11:33

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ for privacy reasons.

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 23/07/2020 11:45

[quote duffeldaisy]@GalesThisMorning I read this thread this morning and am absolutely furious with what Climbdad wrote. I think it's deeply irresponsible. A friend of mine who's been struggling a lot with all this was feeling quite desperate last night on social media, and going from that to this post made me angry.

Please don't let it get you down. I don't know why Climbdad is writing what they are - but seeing some others' responses, I was reassured that others aren't taking their words seriously. They're either doing it to cause panic for fun, or despair - or perhaps hoping that people will then say 'oh well, I may as well not be careful then'.

If you read the actual updates direct from the universities involved (Oxford have a page on news and updates, and there are other trials going on too in lots of other countries, and one or more is bound to be successful) then the research does look really promising. Look up The World Health Organisation Covax Facility - there are 150 countries all working together to try "to guarantee rapid, fair and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines for every country in the world, rich and poor, to make rapid progress towards slowing the pandemic".

If Climbdad is really working in vaccine research, perhaps they're working on one of the failing ones, but there are plenty of other tests going on, and I trust the word of actual, published scientists rather than someone on Mumsnet.[/quote]
But what he said isn't really related to what you are saying.

You're saying that many countries are working together with multiple projects researching, developing and testing potential vaccines - that's all true and he hasn't contradicted that.

What he was explaining was the difference between what mainstream media are reporting around the Oxford vaccine in particular (ready by Christmas) and the reality as reported by the scientific community.

If you read the report issued by the researchers it lists the next steps and the research that still needs to be completed. Anyone who reads that and thinks that it can be completed and evaluated in time for vaccines at Christmas is deluded. He isn't saying that there never will be a vaccine (although that remains a possibility) but that there are hurdles that still need to be overcome including side effects which might include ADE, efficacy and a potential for short lived immunity requiring multiple boosters which could cause its own problems. All of this needs more research.

Telling people that a vaccine will be ready by September or Christmas (which plenty of people are confidently saying on MN) is dangerous. I've got a work colleague who is taking six months unpaid leave (which she can't afford) off work because, as she told me, "there will be a vaccine ready by Christmas". So this person has taken a major life choice based on inaccurate stories printed in the mainstream media.

But calling for accuracy when talking about vaccines and explaining the processes of vaccine research are not the same as saying "it will never happen". He also said he was involved in treatment research, I believe, so your catty remark about him being involved in a failed vaccine was wrong too.

Bettyboo1957 · 23/07/2020 12:17

Its a bug!!! Think force of nature. Its normal for us to do the headless chicken dance before we get a grip on BIG things I am very grateful for the lock down as its has allowed us to develop a management strategy for the damn thing and for future horrors . So I'm planning to harry my MP to ensure the proper funding of Track and Trace ...i don't care i may be placed on the crazy cat lady list i want my great grand kids to be really skilled at managing pandemics

SengaStrawberry · 23/07/2020 12:26

Honestly don’t worry a rat’s ass what the likes of climbdad says. He’s just a merchant of doom and quite what he gets out of it I don’t know.

Ontopofthesunset · 23/07/2020 13:01

I think Climbdad is the new name for that person who used to post with a name that was matthew backwards - wehttham or something with some numbers way back on the first threads. No idea what thrills people get out of relentless negativity.

Even if it is as bad as they say (and if you read earlier threads of theirs under this name they don't sound anything like anyone working on treatments for the virus) we're at some point just going to have to accept that this is another thing that could make us seriously ill or kill us. Even if people can get reinfected the fact that swathes of people will be immune for some months will mean that we don't all get it at once again.

Ontopofthesunset · 23/07/2020 13:02

"they'' being the neutral pronoun to refer to Climbdad.

853690525d · 23/07/2020 15:31

on top
Climbdad is the only one on this thread who sounds remotely informed or sane.

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 23/07/2020 15:34

@853690525d

on top Climbdad is the only one on this thread who sounds remotely informed or sane.
Yep. Sadly they are reporting the truth and many people would rather live in wilful ignorance
853690525d · 23/07/2020 15:35

But thank you for that valuable insight into your critical thinking skills.

Climbdad is obviously Matthew backwards and should therefore not be listened to because Matthew backwards didn't sound that well informed (ergo climbdad can't be) but we should still follow climbdad's reasoning to your conclusion and accept that Many May Die, like cancer (which we are obviously doing nothing about because it's just one of those things that kill lots of people-storm in a tea cup).

You're utterly bonkers.

Jrobhatch29 · 23/07/2020 15:45

Yeah he's also really rational and not at all dramatic. Did you see his thread the other day Hmm

Ontopofthesunset · 23/07/2020 15:58

Er, numbery and lettery poster 853690525d , I don't see how you interpreted what I posted in that way at all. I merely commented that Climbdad's posting style reminded me of another apocalpytic poster a few months ago. I don't think either of the posters sound ill-informed as such, merely rather selective in their scanning of news sources. We are all at the mercy of our sources and any one of us can pick a series of end-of-the-world ones or a series of optimistic ones, or we can settle somewhere in the middle.

Suggesting that we need to learn to find ways to live with an endemic virus is not madness, but simply common sense. Of course we try to treat cancer but many of use also do things that increase our risk of cancer - smoking, drinking, eating too much, not using sunscreen. Most of us will try to live in ways that minimise our risk of getting this virus, carrying out our own wise or foolish risk assessments, but if it does turn out to be something that we are all eventually vulnerable to as we age, then we will in time have to view it as another life shortening risk.

KayEngel · 23/07/2020 16:03

I could say I'm a professor of infectious diseases based in a London med school, doesnt mean I am though!

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 23/07/2020 16:11

@KayEngel

I could say I'm a professor of infectious diseases based in a London med school, doesnt mean I am though!
This is true but the comments that he made are very similar to ones being made by many other drs and scientists that I've been listening to throughout the pandemic - both from here and in the US and from the drs at London teaching hospitals who are treating me currently, and that is, hopefully a vaccine will be found though we can't count on it and more research needs to be done but it's looking promising. It won't be available this year though. I don't find any of that wildly alarmist or inaccurate.

The people who are being inaccurate are the ones claiming this is only the flu or that a vaccine will be available by September (or now they're changing to by Christmas) based on what they've read in the Daily Mail.

Anyone who dares to challenge them, even in the mildest of ways are accused of being doom mongers.

853690525d · 23/07/2020 16:36

Suggesting that we need to learn to find ways to live with an endemic virus is not madness, but simply common sense.

Leaving aside the idea that this was what I was calling bonkers (it was not), you don't learn to live with something. What you mean is, you resign yourself to it being around and certain outcomes for (other) people. The ones doing the learning would be those desperately trying to find a cure, or the kind of learning that is doubtless being done by public health systems in California this week. The "what the hell do we do" learning. The people who aren't learning are the majority going about their daily business without social distancing. It would perhaps be a helpful learning experience for them to see the inside of an ICU and learn what that feels like for all involved as there is no learning to live with that. It would perhaps be helpful for them to visit countries with no functioning ICU or access to many other services as that would be our reality if people like you were in charge. Unless you're an ICU nurse and in a position to personally challenge the heartfelt pleas and 'apocalyptic' warnings from the staff who haven't yet recovered from seeing so many patients die just weeks ago.

There isn't a learning process. It's a turn of phrase that sits very oddly alongside genuinely well informed posters (who you not surprisingly describe as apocalyptic).

alreadytaken · 23/07/2020 17:14

I shall have to search and find climbdad's posts if there is a degree of sense on this thread somewhere. I'm not a tin foil anti-vaxer and have had a lot of vaccines - but I'm not overly keen on taking an inadequately tested vaccine if one is rushed out. I shall be more than happy if the idiots here want to test it for me though.

Covid-19 produces very distinct patterns on X-rays. Sometimes those people have not had a positive test because tests are not perfect. Also in the initial stage of the pandemic there were not enough of them. But some of the idiots on this thread think if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's actually a cow. They need a psychiatrist.

Coronabored · 23/07/2020 17:20

Idiots? You are climbdad with a name change hey

SengaStrawberry · 23/07/2020 17:23

Chris Whitby, former WHO medics/scientists etc have said that they have faith in medicine and humankind to defeat the virus. I’d listen to them more than the likes of ClimbDad. People can find any old shite and copy and paste it on MN to make it appear they have gravitas.