Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

[mostwonderfultime]

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

Whitty

@853690525d

Suggesting that we need to learn to find ways to live with an endemic virus is not madness, but simply common sense.

Leaving aside the idea that this was what I was calling bonkers (it was not), you don't learn to live with something. What you mean is, you resign yourself to it being around and certain outcomes for (other) people. The ones doing the learning would be those desperately trying to find a cure, or the kind of learning that is doubtless being done by public health systems in California this week. The "what the hell do we do" learning. The people who aren't learning are the majority going about their daily business without social distancing. It would perhaps be a helpful learning experience for them to see the inside of an ICU and learn what that feels like for all involved as there is no learning to live with that. It would perhaps be helpful for them to visit countries with no functioning ICU or access to many other services as that would be our reality if people like you were in charge. Unless you're an ICU nurse and in a position to personally challenge the heartfelt pleas and 'apocalyptic' warnings from the staff who haven't yet recovered from seeing so many patients die just weeks ago.

There isn't a learning process. It's a turn of phrase that sits very oddly alongside genuinely well informed posters (who you not surprisingly describe as apocalyptic).

A genuingly well informed poster could join the calm, rational people on the data thread and discuss their theories. Not start threads about how life will never ever be the same and then when people call him out on it, resort to posting ridiculous studies on kids to try and scare people!

@SengaStrawberry

Chris Whitby, former WHO medics/scientists etc have said that they have faith in medicine and humankind to defeat the virus. I’d listen to them more than the likes of ClimbDad. People can find any old shite and copy and paste it on MN to make it appear they have gravitas.

Has Chris Whitty stated a vaccine will definitely be available by September or Christmas (interesting how the "definitely ready by September" posters have now changed to "definitely ready by Christmas" without missing a beat).

Coronabored looks like a name change to me - or a new registration just to post rubbish - whereas I've had this name for years, sorry to disappoint you.

People can write any old shite on mumsnet, they dont need to cut and paste it - climbdad actually tries to give you some science, sorry you cant understand it.

I'm actually more optimistic about managing the virus - we've already got a couple of treatments and hopefully more will come along in time. I share the scepticism about vaccines, though, as do most people with any scientific training. I'm also slightly more optimistic about schools but mainly because a lot of them had high levels of infection early on.

As long as the virus is not controlled people will not go out and spend money, so the economy will suffer. If you want to see everything improve wear your mask, sanitise your hands, watch the local figures for your area. And please do get any inadequately tested excuse for a vaccine going so I dont have to.

Your best friend’s business may have gone bust but at least she’s still alive OP.

My colleague is dead of CV.

It’s very serious if you get it and your body can’t fight it. Make no mistake.

Not as far as I know, and I didn’t claim that he did @Hearhoovesthinkzebras. But he HAS said that he has faith in modern medicine and science to defeat infectious diseases. So one hell of a lot more positive than @ClimbDad and his copied and pasted misery peddling that life will never return to normal

@SengaStrawberry

Not as far as I know, and I didn’t claim that he did *@Hearhoovesthinkzebras. But he HAS said that he has faith in modern medicine and science to defeat infectious diseases. So one hell of a lot more positive than @ClimbDad* and his copied and pasted misery peddling that life will never return to normal

I'd be really interested to see Chris Whitty respond to some of the posters on this thread. I wonder what he would say to the claims that a vaccine will be ready by Christmas? Or that Covid is just the flu? Or that we've all been duped? I wonder if he would be positive and optimistic in his responses?

I think Climbdad was being realistic. Neither optimistic nor pessimistic but realistic.

@KayEngel

I agree. In years to come, they will say we did the wrong thing.

Totally agree

We’ll have to agree to disagree @Hearhoovesthinkzebras. I think @ClimbDad is a tit and take any claim he makes as to his credentials with a big pinch of salt.

@SengaStrawberry

We’ll have to agree to disagree *@Hearhoovesthinkzebras. I think @ClimbDad* is a tit and take any claim he makes as to his credentials with a big pinch of salt.

Ok. Meanwhile I think people insisting it's just like flu or there'll be a vaccine by Christmas are tits.

Well those two things aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s possible to think both groups are tits. A pair of tits if you will.

@FluffyKittensinabasket

Go back to March / April / May and read the posts on here...calling people murderers, “literally sobbing and shaking” at someone going to the shop to only buy chocolate, we are all going to be in lockdown forever, schools will never go back etc.

I suspect that an awful lot of people have name changed.

Omg the reactions on this forum have been ridiculous. The amount of key board warriors who savaged posters on here was crazy. I get they didn’t know then what they know now but seriously why did the responses have to be so aggressive?

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras

No Chris Whitty won't say we've been duped but he will say that even without a vaccine, on an individual you're unlikely to catch it, likely to have no symptoms if you do, unlikely to need intensive treatment if you are ill with it and very unlikely to die even in the most high-risk group.

Chris whittty said just yesterday the R was well below 1 before lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000l647/select-committees-health-and-social-care-committee

I think its around 1hr 26

So did we need lockdown or were the social distancing measures enough?
The lockdown that will lead to this shit show

www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/19/lockdown-may-cost-200k-lives-government-report-shows/amp/

But yeh they didn't die of covid. We can't catch that so we aren't bothered!

Again, @climbdad's response to my question of 16:17 took 15 minutes. By 16:32 Climbdad's answer leads me to think they are exactly what they said, someone working in the state of the art in the field. None of their answers seem alarmist to me, merely factual. That specific answer looks to me like it's beyond what would be in an undergraduate-level textbook. Now, no one need be what they say they are but based on that answer to a specific question within 15 minutes that gave what to me looked like research-level answers that looked sound, unlike much of what's been posted on this thread which seem to say anything that doesn't assuage their health anxiety must be scaremongering and hasn't understood the difference between a vaccine progressing to the next stage and a vaccine working, nor about antibodies and T-cell responses.

If Climbdad's not working the field then I think they should, if they want to. If they're cutting and pasting then at least they know what to cut and paste which is more than many here do. If they're a cleaner then I hope they find a job in the field if they want one. By the way, I don't regard being a cleaner as an insult.

I think sensible posters can tell who knows what they are talking about.

Chris whittty said just yesterday the R was well below 1 before lockdown.

No he didn't. I've just watched it. He said behaviour's that led to R going below 1 were happening before 23rd March and he said some people believe that R might have crossed 1 then. I didn't hear him say that it was his opinion nor that R was well below 1 before lockdown.

@Zilla1

Again, *@climbdad*'s response to my question of 16:17 took 15 minutes. By 16:32 Climbdad's answer leads me to think they are exactly what they said, someone working in the state of the art in the field. None of their answers seem alarmist to me, merely factual. That specific answer looks to me like it's beyond what would be in an undergraduate-level textbook. Now, no one need be what they say they are but based on that answer to a specific question within 15 minutes that gave what to me looked like research-level answers that looked sound, unlike much of what's been posted on this thread which seem to say anything that doesn't assuage their health anxiety must be scaremongering and hasn't understood the difference between a vaccine progressing to the next stage and a vaccine working, nor about antibodies and T-cell responses.

If Climbdad's not working the field then I think they should, if they want to. If they're cutting and pasting then at least they know what to cut and paste which is more than many here do. If they're a cleaner then I hope they find a job in the field if they want one. By the way, I don't regard being a cleaner as an insult.

I think sensible posters can tell who knows what they are talking about.

Climbdad literally said a quote from a peer reviewed study from Stanford, published on Nature, was wrong....

@Sisterwives what are you on about? Without a vaccine you, as an individual, are very very likely to catch it sooner or later - and definitely sooner if it starts spreading again.

Porcupineinwaiting

What are YOU on about? I was repeating what Chris Whitty, you know, the chief medical advisor to the government, said in the clip I attached

That was all. Just repeating what he said.

"Over the whole epidemic, even if there is no vaccine, a high proportion will not get it"

Not commenting on it, didn't give my opinion, just repeating. The clip is only over a minute long, maybe you should have watched it first.

So did we need lockdown or were the social distancing measures enough? The lockdown that will lead to this shit show

There was a full week between Boris’ first announcement urging people to minimise unnecessary contact, not to go to pubs/restaurants and for the elderly to isolate, and actual lockdown... The majority took this seriously and social contact was drastically reduced over that week. Lockdown was aimed at prevented the few that were continuing to disregard the advice from doing so. Had lockdown not occurred, the social distancing that had already occurred would have hit businesses almost as much similar to lockdown did. Lockdown arguably suppressed the transmission even further, allowing us to reduce Covid to current levels quicker than we would have done without it and the minority who disregarded the advice been allowed to continue to spread it.

Lockdown didn’t screw the economy, Covid and the slowness of our response did... The idea that we’d have carried on regardless as Covid continued to explode exponentially if only the Government hadn’t advised, and then required, us to socially distance is fanciful.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras

Chris whittty said just yesterday the R was well below 1 before lockdown.

No he didn't. I've just watched it. He said behaviour's that led to R going below 1 were happening before 23rd March and he said some people believe that R might have crossed 1 then. I didn't hear him say that it was his opinion nor that R was well below 1 before lockdown.

But if the behaviours we were already doing led the R to drop, maybe already below 1, could we not have continued with those measures? Just for the record i am not saying I dont agree with lockdown. I just think it is a question for the future considering so many have lost their jobs and so many will lose their lives as a result of lockdown.

Over the whole epidemic, even if there is no vaccine, a high proportion will not get it"

If herd immunity is 60-70%, that means 30-40% won’t get it... 30-40% is a high proportion.

@Derbygerbil

So did we need lockdown or were the social distancing measures enough? The lockdown that will lead to this shit show

There was a full week between Boris’ first announcement urging people to minimise unnecessary contact, not to go to pubs/restaurants and for the elderly to isolate, and actual lockdown... The majority took this seriously and social contact was drastically reduced over that week. Lockdown was aimed at prevented the few that were continuing to disregard the advice from doing so. Had lockdown not occurred, the social distancing that had already occurred would have hit businesses almost as much similar to lockdown did. Lockdown arguably suppressed the transmission even further, allowing us to reduce Covid to current levels quicker than we would have done without it and the minority who disregarded the advice been allowed to continue to spread it.

Lockdown didn’t screw the economy, Covid and the slowness of our response did... The idea that we’d have carried on regardless as Covid continued to explode exponentially if only the Government hadn’t advised, and then required, us to socially distance is fanciful.

Sorry yes I didnt explain my point very well. I meant would the social distancing measures implemented before lockdown have been enough to keep it under control as they had been enough to drop the R to close to 1 on their own. I didnt mean just carry on regardless, didnt explain very well.

But if the behaviours we were already doing led the R to drop, maybe already below 1, could we not have continued with those measures?

But we didn’t know that at the time... To have stopped at limited measures in mid-March with a surging virus on a hunch that R was below 1 would have been playing Russian Roulette with the public, and criminally irresponsible.

Also, even if R was below 1, we needed it massively below 1 to avoid a catastrophe. If 100,000 were catching it daily at its peak, a reduction of R of 0.8 would very likely have led 1,000s more deaths than a R of a reduction to say 0.5.

I am reserving judgement at the moment.

I can't believe PHE and WHO would suggest such draconian measures unless the worry was enormous. Even now GPs, hospitals and dentists are taking really strict measures- and we know what is happening n shops and businesses, public transport etc. I can't believe governments would wreck economies if it wasn't incredibly serious.

I am waiting to see what happens in the winter months when another explosion is being predicted.

However, like the OP, I have been surprised by how low the numbers of figures have been in many areas. Currently there are just 3 newly diagnosed cases in the last week in our area. The number of deaths in total here is in the 50-100 range. I know even 1 would be too many but there are 250,000+ people in our area so it's a low death rate.

The Nightingale hospitals were barely used and some never admitted a patient.

It was frightening and we are still taking the precautions advised but I wonder if we had acted differently as a country at the start, if we could have moved to less widespread and more localised measures more quickly as hotspots became obvious.

I know several people who are asking to work from home permanently now and I worry about the impact that will have on cities and the culture of workplaces if it is widespread.

I have been to town today for the first time since lockdown and it was very quiet. I am worried that Newcastle will not recover from this. Eldon Square was, I'd estimate, a quarter as busy as I would expect on a summer's day in school holidays.