Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

[mostwonderfultime]

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

@Derbygerbil

But if the behaviours we were already doing led the R to drop, maybe already below 1, could we not have continued with those measures?

But we didn’t know that at the time... To have stopped at limited measures in mid-March with a surging virus on a hunch that R was below 1 would have been playing Russian Roulette with the public, and criminally irresponsible.

Also, even if R was below 1, we needed it massively below 1 to avoid a catastrophe. If 100,000 were catching it daily at its peak, a reduction of R of 0.8 would very likely have led 1,000s more deaths than a R of a reduction to say 0.5.

Yes I can see your point. I can see why people get upset about it though. Predicting 200,000 people will lose their life because of missed treatment or not having screenings is really upsetting. It just seems like if its not covid it isn't important.

So which of you are offering opinions and which ones facts? I dunno.So play safe ...wear your shopping masks tomorrow . Remember to watch the enquiry when it happens and don't let them get away with anything. This will not be the only rodeo

But if the behaviours we were already doing led the R to drop, maybe already below 1, could we not have continued with those measures?
Just for the record i am not saying I dont agree with lockdown. I just think it is a question for the future considering so many have lost their jobs and so many will lose their lives as a result of lockdown.

Firstly, you completely misrepresented what was said in that committee hearing. Secondly, he was referring to behaviour that happened the week before lockdown. That's when Boris appealed to everyone to do what was asked voluntarily and avoid the need of an official lockdown. That weekend saw pubs packed to the gunnels with people clearly not willing to voluntarily do anything. At that point the situation was becoming dire and I don't blame government for taking a punt on whether the British public would come good. SAGE have commented on the lives saved had we locked down only a couple of weeks earlier so I wonder what the implications would have been of delaying it another week to see how civic minded would could become?

But we didn’t know that at the time...
Nor did Sweden but they acted more sensibly, not shutting schools for example. I sincerely hope that n any future on damp s we adopt the Swedish model instead of OTT lockdown.

I think the R number dropping before lockdown shows nothing more than that the British public took it more seriously than the government and that we should probably have locked down sooner. With that and the care home mess not happening we could have been sitting here in a much better position now, albeit of course not “back to normal”

Some of the British public I mean. My friends and I had all stopped meeting up and going out end Feb/beginning March.

@lifeafter50

But we didn’t know that at the time... Nor did Sweden but they acted more sensibly, not shutting schools for example. I sincerely hope that n any future on damp s we adopt the Swedish model instead of OTT lockdown.

Sweden's rate of infections is now one of the highest in the World.

I agree OP. Massive overreaction and many people reported from dying of Covid when they actually died of something else. Also no autopsies.

FizzAfterSix you need to consider the thousands that haven't died, but have got long term health implications from covid, even mild cases. Even only a few days on a ventilator can have you needing months of physio to learn to talk, swallow, eat again.

Honestly, it's not just about the deaths.

Lulu I've not yet taken a trip to the 'toon', ive been told Eldon square and Northumberland street are v quiet and Boots in metro centre is to close. We are in Northumberland, perhaps same area, our figures are v low. Im not sure I believe the figures anymore anyway. We've taken our precautions, done as we we were told, and lost our jobs. Mine is safe but now my daughter, son in law have been made redundant. My brothers job is looking iffy as if Dhs business which has been badly effected and may close. I feel very worn down and stressed about the future.

Sweden's rate of infection is one of the highest in the world despite them already having a lot of people working from home and life there not going on as normal. www.euronews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-in-sweden-it-s-a-myth-that-life-is-going-on-as-normal-says-swedish-government

and the man behind their strategy now admitting they made mistakes
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

Chris Whitty wouldnt be allowed out - like the senior nurse and Prof Van Tam - unless he said what the government want you to hear. I also wonder if he'd say the same things again. He's "seriously concerned" about winter www.cityam.com/chris-whitty-second-wave-of-coronavirus-is-a-really-serious-concern/

If we had locked down a week earlier there would have been many fewer deaths and the economy would have suffered far less because we could have reopened sooner. There were also some daft decisions over what had to stop and what was allowed to continue, causing more economic damage than was necessary. Some parts of the country - mainly the south west - could have got away with less restrictions as long as you banned other people travelling to them but that would have been impossible to police.

As for the ridiculous newspaper articles about how many people will die as a result of lockdown - without lockdown there would still have been people dying at home of cancer because a lot more NHS beds would have been full of people dying of Covid-19 while even more doctors and nurses would have been sick or dying from it. You'd also have had trouble maintaining any sort of economy, and even food supplies, with more people off sick.

The idea that life could have continued normally without lockdown is just a sick joke. This is what you would have had

How are we still discussing the seriousness of Covid 5 months on. It has claimed the lives of over 600,000 people world wide FFS??

I don't want these restrictions either, I don't want to wear a mask, I want everything back to normal, but that's just not the reality, so I put my big girl pants on and make the best of it by taking sensible precautions and adhering to guidelines. I'm not panicking I know it's likely I'll be fine if I get it, but it's not about me is it?

I feel the same. So many people have lost all common sense and I think the media has really ruined the way people are thinking.

Regarding the NHS, I feel it was used as propaganda to get people to stop. Most people Clapping on Thursday but most of those people will ignore the termination of student nhs contracts and the MPs voting against protecting the NHS just a couple of days ago after telling the nation to follow guidelines to protect the NHS. It’s a such BS.

Police commissioner Cressida Dick has said regarding masks that it will be hard to enforce so they’re relying on people to shame others into wearing. I am exempt for medical reasons and I will not be shamed or mistreated by someone who feels entitled enough to do so.

No one gives sepsis this type of attention and that is brutal and kills nearly 50,000 in the U.K. every year.

Yes I can see your point. I can see why people get upset about it though. Predicting 200,000 people will lose their life because of missed treatment or not having screenings is really upsetting. It just seems like if its not covid it isn't important.

But isn’t the point that it’s not an either or situation? Those 200,000 aren’t prevented if the health service breaks because it’s overwhelmed with COVID patients and he whole hospital is a red zone.

It’s a shit situation where whatever you do people are going to die. But the fault of that lies with the virus. And tbh I suspect people are just as upset when people write of the deaths of others as ‘people with underlying condituons’ or ‘would have died in the next year anyway’ to prove Covid isn’t dangerous.

Although there is a fair amount of cognitive dissonance involved when people do that and complain about people not getting treatment.

Oh my lord. Just read climbdad’s comments. He is literally talking rubbish. He has no knowledge of t-cells. He’s just cutting and pasting nonsense!

He has no knowledge of t-cells

Or how scientific modelling works.

Plenty of fools falling for him on here though. 🤯

I don't think that's a fair comment @LaurieMarlow. I guess you must also work in a scientific or medical field but most of us don't. It's not foolish to believe someone who sounds clear, coherent, plausible and knowledgeable. There was a lady on radio 4 yesterday who said much the same as that poster: the virus is not going away anytime soon and will change the way we live for years to come.

I have no knowledge about how t-cells work. I'm probably not alone in that. Still, it seems more plausible to me to believe that this virus is a very real threat than to believe it's a bad cold. Why else would the whole world have taken this action?

Still, it seems more plausible to me to believe that this virus is a very real threat than to believe it's a bad cold.

I don’t think anyone is disputing that. I’m certainly not.

But there are medical advances happening at a significant rate now, which in time will result in our better handling of the disease.

We have no proof of the credentials of anyone posting here. It would be naive to take anyone at favs value. If we want to educate ourselves, we should seek out better sources than some random on MN.

I think this is a helpful article for example.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.amp.html

I don't think that's a fair comment LaurieMarlow. I guess you must also work in a scientific or medical field but most of us don't

Based on her earlier comments in this thread, @LaurieMarlow knows stuff all about medical research or vaccine development either.

It's not foolish to believe someone who sounds clear, coherent, plausible and knowledgeable.

This is exactly how conmen take people in.

Based on her earlier comments in this thread, @LaurieMarlow knows stuff all about medical research or vaccine development either.

Unlike climbdad I’m not holding myself up as any kind of expert. I’m heartened by developments. That is all.

Oh and I also have some basic understanding of the role T cells could play in immunity building. Another difference.

There was a lady on radio 4 yesterday who said much the same as that poster: the virus is not going away anytime soon and will change the way we live for years to come.

But who was she?

Why are people so willing to accept all negative proclamations as fact but any more positive spin is dismissed?

This is exactly how conmen take people in.

Quite.

We’d do well to remember any poster on here could be a teenage troll having a laugh.

Why are people so willing to accept all negative proclamations as fact but any more positive spin is dismissed?

Because that’s what they want to believe (for a wide variety of reasons).

And confirmation bias.