Boris announcement- November. Does he know something?

[Yetiyoga]

Not sure if this has been suggested. We are supposed to find out next week about how successful the Oxford vaccine has gone aren't we? Do you think Boris Johnson knows the result and that is why he thinks we could be back to normal by November / Christmas? Or am I being naive/ too optimistic?
I just can't see 'normal' by Christmas as things are currently. And I'm fairly relaxed about it all.
I have a first niece / nephew due late October so it would mean the world to be able to meet them this year.

@Yetiyoga I think the info coming out the the Oxford trials next week is already out in a simplified form - several articles out in the last few days talking about how the vaccine stimulates antibody and t-cell responses. What’s coming next week is the full report on the phase 1 trials in The Lancet but I think it will basically be confirming the above. They won’t have further data while the trials are still running as it’s all blind I believe, so no one knows until the end.

Dh and I had the same conversation earlier this evening, wouldn’t it be lovely if boris knows something we don’t about the vaccine... I don’t think he does though, I think it’s just his natural state to be optimistic.

Having said that, personally I’m optimistic about the vaccine, I just don’t think it will be coming that quickly.

New Zealand did better. Taiwan did better. Greece did better. South Korea did better Japan did better. Germany did better. Portugal did better. And, to be fair, so did Italy and France, though they had bad death rates. And within the UK Scotland did better. Northern Ireland did better. Wales did better.

It wasn't hindsight. We knew it was coming. We were told.

I did watch an interview earlier on CNN with the head of the NIH in the US (he’s dr Fauci’s boss! I always thought he was the boss!) who was saying he was fairly optimistic about a successful (enough) vaccine being found by the end of the year and being rolled out early 2021, I’ll take that as a win!

Hopefully this link will work re today's evidence from Valance & Whitty plus others, quite long but interesting.

I think he’s dangling a carrot in front of the U.K. and saying go on go on spend your money and get outside, knowing full well that there are models suggesting that there could be another 120,000 deaths come winter if mitigations aren’t in place. If I was trying to be kind, I’d say he was trying to give the mental health and the hopes of the nation a boost by saying look what could happen!

What people will actually hear though is, the virus has gone, you can go back to football games in October.

Lords Science and Technology Committee today with Whitty and Valence: parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/ef237bfb-b5b1-489d-9db0-9267021d9142

It’ll be all over by Christmas...

... hmm, sure that sort of prediction has been made before

Sorry sun. Didn't realise you'd posted the link. Watched it live earlier. They do seem worried about winter

@TheMurk "nhs underwhelmed if anything" 😂😂🙄😡

I have first hand experience of that as do my colleagues and er well thats not the case .

Many of them are burnt out , having difficulty sleeping and experiencing ptsd type symptoms as a result of the last 4 months .

It’s dire though isn’t it. If we just continue to lockdown, the economy will collapse as will millions of jobs.
If there is a second wave in the autumn, I don’t think they will furlough people a second time, companies will say enough is enough anyway.

@IfOnlyOurEyesSawSouls

I also have first hand experience of it being entirely underwhelmed, under used, unavailable to those in dire need of it.

Perhaps you’re in London.

While I am a fan of listening to scientific advice, the reason we don't have a Scientochracy is that scientists are very risk averse and not likely to listen to the other pressures on the country. Businesses are starting to go down, much more limited working and we could have 3 million unemployed.

Also worth remembering that people have died and will have undiagnosed conditions because of the NHS shutdown. There objective for three months was covid 19.
For some it’ll be too late, and some will be scared to go into hospital.

The thing is the science would say the way to protect people would be a full lockdown. Everyone. Until a vaccine is created.
The reality is , this isn’t possible. We had a half hearted lockdown and people couldn’t stick to it for three weeks.
Science V economy.

@akerman

New Zealand did better. Taiwan did better. Greece did better. South Korea did better Japan did better. Germany did better. Portugal did better. And, to be fair, so did Italy and France, though they had bad death rates. And within the UK Scotland did better. Northern Ireland did better. Wales did better.

It wasn't hindsight. We knew it was coming. We were told.

You do realise it isn't over yet? Impossible to say who 'did better' .

It hadn't crossed my mind that this could be anything other than Alexander's usual bullshit. Utter arse.

Weird for them to say social distancing could end in November at the earliest. In the middle of funking winter, which can last till March. In any case its going to be cold and humid beyond November.

Remember, more importantly, what is coming at the end of December.

Also, hope for the best and prepare for the worst.... the reality will most likely be something in between. I dont believe the UK is decisive and organised enough to keep numbers down permanently as Germany for example. Once we are let out the numbers will keep rising and plateau. Not to mention we never reached the very low daily infection rates Germany or France did for example towards the end of their lockdown.

@Pixxie7

He is bumbling through this, has admitted they are longer following the science. Of course he was it over by Christmas so he can focus on the next mess, BREXIT. Even if it’s good news about the vaccine not everyone will be vaccinated by then.

@Pixxie7 this is so true!

They just had the entirely inappropriate (currently) UK's New Start Let's Get Going campaign billboard.

I dare say Cummings has been champing out the bit having to delay the Great Saviour that is Brexit latest promotion. What an irritating inconvenience COVID has been to him!

Boris was bragging today that we have more tests per capita than Germany and some other countries. As if that is an achievement given we have a much higher number of infections.

My experience as a lay person is that it's hard to see where we are going to be in 4-6 weeks never mind months in advance. We thought that VE Day/beachgoers/BLM protesters... would cause a spike but infections and deaths have been steadily falling. We thought that the kids would all be back at school in May and look what happened- we had no clue. Even Boris thought he'd get to hug his mum on Mother's Day.
It's good to hear the changes that are coming in the next few weeks though. The speculation each time we approach a "change date" is pretty tiresome.
I am very sceptical that he's using this as a diversion. So many clouds hanging over this government - Cummings, Jenrick, Russia Report...

It’ll be all over by Christmas...

... hmm, sure that sort of prediction has been made before

That was the first thing that came into my mind too.

Boris is all wind and no piss. I despair.

@Lisette1940

Sorry sun. Didn't realise you'd posted the link. Watched it live earlier. They do seem worried about winter

I think it’s as much realistic as worried. It certainly wasn’t the rosy it’ll all be fine by Christmas picture that came from the Boris press conference.

If Boris knows something about a vaccine I’d assume they would know it too and they certainly didn’t give the impression that they thought anything was coming soon, or even this year.

With regards to the Oxford Trial I believe that they have focused on T-cell response rather than antibodies and their vaccine produces killer t
T-cells.

I believe that there is a good candidate for vaccine in the US too which is why it was reported that there were Russian cyber attacks trying to get details.