To think people need to be released from the idea that they must 'stay safe'?

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

IMO people's heads have been messed with on an absolutely massive scale during this pandemic. So many people seem to be locked into the idea that they absolutely must avoid getting covid at all costs, no matter what, to the extent that they're convinced that if they don't do everything possible to 'stay safe' then they're definitely going to die.

I genuinely think that the extent to which governments around the world have convinced people that the only thing that matters is this virus is a far far far bigger problem than the virus itself. I think governments are too cowardly to say what needs to be said, which is that there is no way to prevent everyone from getting it, and that attempting to prevent it is causing so many other problems that it just can't be done any more.

I think people are being driven around the twist with the idea that this threat is out there, lurking at all times, waiting to get them. It's like a form of mental torture, with people questioning everything and worrying about everything, while the economy crumbles around them.

There is no guarantee of a vaccine or of more effective treatments. There is every chance that covid will still be circulating, along with every other virus, in 2030. You could do everything absolutely 'right' now and still get it next year or in five years.

I get the fact that it was new, unprecedented, etc. But where do we draw the line? When will the acceptance come? When it's too late and there's no way to restore the millions of jobs lost? When economies have collapsed so much that poverty, violence and starvation make covid look like a walk in the park?

ICU beds which are usually full (flooded if you want to use hyperbolic language) due to the illnesses I mentioned.

I meant flooded, not in a hyperbolic way.
I meant having a waiting list for emergency care and being too late.
Including by leaving people with those diseases waiting.

Look back to Italy and Spain to see what I mean by flooded.

Heart disease doesn't spread like sars-cov-2. You don't go from 10 deaths to 100 deaths per day in a short time with heart disease. And further increasing thereafter.

@MarshaBradyo

Op if the infection rate is around 10% (scientists say 8) then isn’t the IC model close?

Can you say why you think it’s wrong

This article is old, unfortunately, but it's useful in that it discusses the nature of modelling: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Because of the nature of the pandemic the model had to rely on a lot of assumptions - about people's behaviour, about how it would spread, about natural immunity, etc etc. Data coming out now shows that many of those assumptions were wrong. For example, it's been shown that levels of infection are higher than once thought because some people don't develop antibodies but do develop a T-cell response: news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown. Higher infection levels means that the death rate is lower than first calculated - it is quite possibly the case that has infected millions and millions and killed a very small proportion. That doesn't take away from the fact that those deaths are tragedy, but it does mean that on the scale of things covid may not in fact be a 'deadly' illness.

Britons are more scared of coronavirus than rest of the world

"People in Britain are more scared of coronavirus than those in other countries because they care more about their fellow citizens, the first international study into fear of the disease has concluded.

The research carried out by a team from the University of Cambridge found that a British sense of social responsibility was fuelling the highest levels of concerns over the risk posed by Covid-19"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/britons-scared-coronavirus-infection-rest-world/

I'm in Leicester and as of yesterday the message we're getting isn't stay safe it's 'Stay home'. No non essential travel, no non-essential shops, no relaxing of shielding.

So I suppose if you want to drop the 'stay safe' message and start just doing what you like based on your own risk assessment you need to also factor in the possibility that you are jeopardising yours and everyone else's ability to come out of lockdown.

I'm incredibly pissed off by the cavalier attitudes of some people. I've had no contact with anyone outside my household since March. I've stuck to the guidelines, maintained social distancing, worn a mask in shops, seen family from a distance and via video chat. Now because others haven't I'm stuck in for another 2 and a half weeks at least and the small additional freedoms we had got like non essential shops have gone.

Holland didn't do nothing, and did suffer.

From the link (above)

"Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, the head of the University of Cambridge's Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication which carried out the study, has expressed his concern that the UK has become "over anxious" and called for a campaign to get people "to start living again".Sir David, who sits on Downing Street's main scientific Covid-19 advisory panel, said: "People in the UK are particularly anxious about this and are reluctant to go out.

"I think we do need to have some sort of campaign to encourage people who are very low risk to get out and start living again, when we are able to."

Well, maybe they should have thought of that before their adverts etc what did they think would happen

Holland didn't do nothing, and did suffer

Of course they had what they called an 'intelligent lockdown' and some people did die, I am aware of that.

However I think their fear is less than here which may be a good thing for them in terms of their mental health.

@TorysSuckRevokeArticle50

I'm in Leicester and as of yesterday the message we're getting isn't stay safe it's 'Stay home'. No non essential travel, no non-essential shops, no relaxing of shielding.

So I suppose if you want to drop the 'stay safe' message and start just doing what you like based on your own risk assessment you need to also factor in the possibility that you are jeopardising yours and everyone else's ability to come out of lockdown.

I'm incredibly pissed off by the cavalier attitudes of some people. I've had no contact with anyone outside my household since March. I've stuck to the guidelines, maintained social distancing, worn a mask in shops, seen family from a distance and via video chat. Now because others haven't I'm stuck in for another 2 and a half weeks at least and the small additional freedoms we had got like non essential shops have gone.

That's really shit for you and I can see why you're angry, but my take on it is that it shouldn't be the case that you have had no contact with anyone since March, because even though you have done that, you're still stuck in and cases are still ongoing. The question to be asking IMO is what's the point? If you can lock down for three months and destroy the economy and that still doesn't work, where does the line get drawn? Does it just go on and on and on until everyone sees no point in living any more?

Thanks, yes I had heard a bit about t-cell response on here, now my surprise is that just last week a scientist rather confidently said 8%. The T cell issue is a large unknown I’d have thought they’d reflect that in statements on infection rate.

Yes if the rate is far higher, great if so, then the model is out.

@TheDailyCarbuncle but if everyone had done what they were supposed to do we wouldn't be in this position.

The selfishness of the few who thought they were entitled to overrule the guidance and do what they wanted is now affecting the many.

I think OP is right and all that lockdowns and SD achieve - unless you implement them 100pct and indefinitely - is changing the timing and shape of the curve, not the area underneath it.

This makes perfect sense if you have the goal of 1) not overwhelming healthcare services (mission accomplished) or 2) expect a vaccine (and an efficacious one at that) in the near future.

Maybe I'm a dreadful pessimist but the history of vaccine development suggests it will take a few years at least (if ever). On the plus side, we can cope, healthcare services wise.

So I'd be totally fine ending any kind of lockdown right now. If you're going to get it, you're going to get it. Unless you live in a bubble forever, and that's no life.

The economy has to be protected too or other - very significant - harms will result. But governments in democracies tend to be short termist and always focused on the next election. The economic, health (the non corona kind of health) and educational devastation will be someone else's problem to deal with, so they've kicked that can down the road.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, the head of the University of Cambridge's Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication which carried out the study, has expressed his concern that the UK has become "over anxious" and called for a campaign to get people "to start living again".Sir David, who sits on Downing Street's main scientific Covid-19 advisory panel, said: "People in the UK are particularly anxious about this and are reluctant to go out.

This is not in keeping with what we’ve seen, people bound like spring springs - beaches, Primark, raves.

I don’t think the majority are scared, the messaging isn’t a problem for me it’s the actions that I want to review.

Schools, local lockdowns, financial packages - all can cause damage or not.

Sprung springs

Just as the virus is rising again seems an odd time to suggest people stop being safe.

1 i wasnt afraid because of what uk gov said. They were worse than useless. It was china and italy with 40yo in hospital.
2 i am afraid more than necessary because uk gov have mishandled it.
3 we cant trust them.

There is a huge middle ground between "frightened to leave the house, ever" (which seems pretty reasonable to me if you happen to be in the most vulnerable categories), and "let's get back to normal asap".

My dad is terrified of leaving the house because he's a man over 70, with 4 conditions that increase his risk of complications. He's looked at the figures, and has concluded that since the fatality rate for men his age with his list of conditions is high, and he has no way of knowing who is infected, he needs to stay away from everyone. This is a rational fear. He is already fairly ill, so IF he were to catch it (which we all know is a low risk right now) he would in all likelihood die. He's seen 4 of his friends, all younger and healthier than he is, die since March.

My neighbours are the other end of the spectrum, in that they are very young and healthy, so it is unlikely to affect them. Therefore, they have never observed social distancing, and have treated furlough as one big party. I know this because they are literally having parties in their garden where I have no choice but to see and hear it.

I'm somewhere in the middle. I've always stuck to social distancing rules, but am happy enough going out for walks and to the supermarket. I'm back at work, in a secondary school, where I'm currently (not right this minute, I'm waiting for replies from my home learning classes right now) in a classroom with up to 15 teen-agers who may or may not be strictly observing social distancing. I'm concerned about spread of the virus increasing again, because in September the plan seems to be that I will have classes of 30 again with no social distancing other than me having to stick to the front of the room, but no masks for anyone. If any of those teen-agers catch it, they are pretty likely to spread it to me because of the whole inside, no masks or social distancing thing. I'm diabetic, so at greater risk of complications. I'm not worried I'll die, because that's a tiny, tiny chance. I am concerned about being ill, with complications, because I don't know how ill I could get, and I don't know how long it would take to recover. It's not stopping me from doing my job, but it is making me concerned, and a lot more cautious than I normally am.

They really do OP.
Some people seem to have been unaware, pre-Covid, of illness, death, and the risks in everyday life. And if anyone points out that how we deal with Covid has to be balanced against how we deal with absolutely everything else, they are immediately attacked as being 'stupid/selfish/moronic' etc which doesn't make it easy to find solutions.
A good start would be making sure that children get a really strong grounding in maths, which would also help with understanding of statistics. However, that's obviously a very long term solution and I'm not sure we can stay locked down for 10 years while we teach more STEM .

@iamapixie

They really do OP. Some people seem to have been unaware, pre-Covid, of illness, death, and the risks in everyday life. And if anyone points out that how we deal with Covid has to be balanced against how we deal with absolutely everything else, they are immediately attacked as being 'stupid/selfish/moronic' etc which doesn't make it easy to find solutions. A good start would be making sure that children get a really strong grounding in maths, which would also help with understanding of statistics. However, that's obviously a very long term solution and I'm not sure we can stay locked down for 10 years while we teach more STEM .

Not just Maths - Critical thinking should be also be taught so people don't just read headlines and run with it but actually delve further

Well while we’re at it my proposal would be economics earlier in schools.

But I don’t think overall people are scared and at risk of developing OCD as pp.
Most people are keen to ‘start living’ as we’ll probably see when things open up soon.

I haven’t got an issue with the messaging. People aren’t so nuanced to react differently to stay safe v something like we’ll get through this together.

UserAccess Yes, happy to accept that!

But have you seen the death rate OP?
Many many thousands of people have DIED. Each one a terrible tragedy. Many many people left with long term health problems.
I think it's very reasonable to want to avoid the risk of dying or being left with a permanent heath problem.
Maybe you are at low risk yourself OP and your views are skewed in the opposite direction to those you think are worried unreasonably.
A middle ground perhaps?
The risk of death from COVID is a very real one.

My brother and his family live in Holland and he works in Germany. He says people in both countries are bewildered by the fear in some of the UK people they know. It’s not because they didn’t have as many deaths in Netherlands or Germany but neither government tried to frighten people to death and most people in those countries understand who the virus can be bad for, which is mainly the very elderly, and they are just getting on with their lives, rather than cowering in fear and hanging onto every bit of bad news.

I find it embarrassing that UK people are seemingly quite dim and unable to assess risk compared to other countries.

I'm a maths teacher, obviously with a maths degree, so I have a pretty good understanding of statistics and risk analysis. What I don't have, which I need in order to make decent analysis of the risks, is accurate data. The actual number of positive tests from all settings isn't available in an area by area format (the data they release is only positive tests in hospital settings). The proportions of people developing complications along with their occupations, ages and health conditions would be useful data to have as well, but it's not available, it's possible to get that data about deaths but not complications.

So for a lot of us, we don't need a better understanding of the statistics, we just need the actual statistics!!!

Theluggage have they not seen the images of packed trains and beaches as other countries have?

Who do they know and why are they such outliers?

I think it's weird how people can be amazed at others being more scared than of any other illness when those people working in hospitals ARE saying it's like no other illness they've seen before.
I want life to get back to normal. I also don't want to roll the dice on my or my family's life.