very interesting (imho) article posted by a doctor in Leicester
Leicester’s Unnecessary Second Lockdown
lockdownsceptics.org/why-leicester-doesnt-need-a-local-lockdown/
a few snippets
By May, positive cases averaged around 10 a day and deaths were continuing to fall. In late May, we started swabbing every single admission to the hospitals, and this is where things get interesting. I work in a department that isn’t respiratory medicine. This means that the patients who are in our area are there for other health issues that are not caused by COVID-19 (think surgery or mental health). Of those we swabbed, just 1% tested positive and all of them were asymptomatic. That rate has been steady since May 23rd. I believe that our patients are representative of the rate in the UK population and, for what it’s worth, it’s the same story in Manchester, Leeds and Guildford, where I’ve been comparing notes with colleagues. Unpublished data shared on an open forum from Leeds, Manchester, Sussex also confirms this – 1%, all asymptomatic when testing positive. These patients have, almost without exception, not developed any symptoms, although some have had household members with a cough.
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We have also brought in two mobile testing stations into these areas, just so we can find all of these people with the virus, which, as I say, are almost certainly no more than 1% of the population. So lets get this really clear: we have locked down based on unreliable test results which may contain multiple positives for one person, all accompanied by a falling rate of hospital admissions and death
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The final reason we don’t need to worry about the risk of overwhelming the hospital is the age of the people affected. The median age of those with a positive community test is 39. The risk of a 39 year-old dying from COVID-19 is less than that of them drowning (based on the ONS data). Thirty-nine year-olds are out at work, particularly 39 year-olds who live in North Evington, the worst affected area in Leicester city. Over 95% cases are in under-65 year-olds, again at substantially decreased risk. North Evington has a higher than average population who were not born in the UK, and have fewer qualifications and work in manual jobs. They live in smaller houses with less outside space. This means that they have not had a middle class luxury lockdown with working from home and sitting in their garden.
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The only other thing I want to address is the myth of Covid and children. We had one child with COVID-19 in our hospitals back in May and none since. Public Health England say in their report “that the number of children with positive tests remains relatively static”. We absolutely do not need to worry about our children or teachers under the age of 65. The research worldwide is clear. However, they have shut our schools again. Education is the best long-term route out of poverty, the best thing we can do for vulnerable children and we are punishing them for a disease that isn’t even making our population ill.
Local Lockdown in Leicester is purely a tool of control. It’s a threat to make us behave. We weren’t actually misbehaving for the record – our protests have had lower numbers and less violence than the national average, we haven’t been going to any beaches – there aren’t any – and the vast majority of the population have taken the random rules of lockdown very seriously. Be warned. Given our cases have already started falling, they will be able to call this a success in two weeks. By then it might be your turn.
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