Leicester facing full lockdown

[Ifailed]

According to the BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53206506.
Anyone living there - how do you feel about this? Personally I would feel terribly trapped, almost like I was being punished, like when teacher's used to keep a whole class behind due to the behaviour of a minority.

StrawberryJam I expect monitoring would come under the HSE, who are primarily funded by central government

Whether they'll make the money available for enhanced inspections is anyone's guess, but somehow I doubt Boris will be bothered about much beyond a positive headline

@Llamazoom have you looked at the link with the actual case numbers? You'd probably find it reassuring.

And really 'a local GP receptionist' doesn't count as a reliable source ... anymore than some random bloke in Lidl or something you saw on facebook would do.

36 other areas with v high infection rates.

Anybody on here from Portsmouth or the Isle of Wight, I’ve heard from a fairly reliable source that both areas are affected quite badly.

Depressing how the media has created this concern with such embarrassingly flawed analysis, presenting areas with our lowest infections levels as “hotspots” because their cases went up by 1 in a week!

It’s not just our children that need to get back to school... many of our journalists do too.

There are any other areas of known high infection rates. Just the press misrepresenting data.

@torydeathdrug no I haven’t, the local radio stations website publishes figures for the whole county but the county is huge. I know I shouldn’t believe what I’m told, she was telling everybody in the queue in the post office. I do not use Facebook at all, I can’t imagine what the rumour mill is like on there for my small gossipy town!

Well. according to Andy Burnham, Manchester has six times the number of infections that they thought they had, now they have finally received the Pillar 2 data they've been denied.
here

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-exceedances-in-leicester

PHE have just now published a report into the Leicester outbreak. More up to date data on 7 day infection rate (see attached) shows a decline in 8/10 of the top areas, though only slightly in Leicester. Increases in Doncaster and Bolton but from a much lower start.
Mean age of cases is 40, split 49% male. Ethnicity "likely reflects the local population" (there is a graph)

Locations appear to be around a couple of workplaces, a couple of carehomes, a household , a hospital and a school. With 4 nurseries and a school marked as "exposure/issue/threat".

North Evington ward most significantly impacted.

And this would be why Hancock commented about children -
"The proportion of positive PCR tests (as a proportion of all test) is rising. This is suggestive of a genuine increase in numbers of new infections, not simply an artefact of increasing test rates.

This effect is most marked in the under 19-year-old group where the proportion of test positive cases fell to ≈5% (across all age groups) after the end of the initial epidemic peak, and has climbed back from mid-May to a current value of ≈15%."

Although they note that this pattern is not replicated across the country.

AND they note there has been no increase in hospital admissions, which have been steady at between 6-10 a day for four weeks. So the increase in positive tests is not , at present, leading to more hospital cases.

Conclusions - "Conclusions

1. The strongest evidence of an outbreak is given by the numbers of new infections identified in children and working age people, and rising proportion of positive tests also seen in these age groups, from late May onwards. These are trends not observed in other parts of the Midlands, or related travel areas.
2. Evidence for the scale of the outbreak is limited and may, in part, be artefactually related to growth in availability of testing.
3. If an outbreak is occurring, then care should be taken to ensure that the artificial geographical reporting boundaries do not obscure a problem that may cross the East Midlands and East of England border"

attachment!

@PatriciaHolm that is really interesting thank you. I'll read the report fully as soon as I can.

Interestingly my friend is a research nurse on the covid ward at a leicester hospital, (not the intensive care ward). She said they have ben overrun with Asian people from Leicester under 35 today. I know this seems to go against what is being reported though- maybe it is a timing lag. She feels so frustrated to see hospital cases climbing with local people.

PatriciaHolm Thankyou for that link makes interesting reading. A lot more research into schools / nursery’s needed I think. Primary’s functioning at 38% opening to more children and secondary’s opening to keyworker / vulnerable only is interesting.

Oh and onto the very important matter of Bruccianis- the ice cream soda plus an iced bun was heaven!

I'm hoping there is some taking in of the situation. I've been up to fosse Park this evening and there was no queue for asda.

I've never seen that before, apart from a couple of people it was social distanced and following the one way.

Brucianis and ainsleys was a Saturday afternoon right of passage, along with an underage beer and a game of pool at the superbowl

Wonderful to see those "Top 10" numbers dropping again, Patricia - and thank you from me too for all this great information you're providing

I'd ask how the heck you're finding it, but probably wouldn't understand the answer!!

My dad walked in a main Leicester Park today as he does everyday with his little dog. He said that it was deserted and it's usually very busy.

However, when you look at that video of Spinney Hill yesterday it's hard to be positive about change. A gathering of what looks like hundreds of people playing and watching a cricket match. Standing in several huge groups with no social distancing. Sharing water jugs and big trays of food. Someone had organised it I'd assume from the fact that there were trophies for the winners. It was as if there was no issue locally whatsoever.

Was that video before the lock down again. I'm hoping that things are sinking in.

I'm not in lockdown but most pubs etc aren't opening around me and if they are they're being strict with criteria to get in.

@PatriciaHolm

That’s a very welcome trend!

[quote Derbygerbil]@PatriciaHolm

That’s a very welcome trend![/quote]
It is, and it's not the only one - COVID-Zoe app is showing 1,445 infections a day for the UK down from 2,341 last week (39% decline)
covid.joinzoe.com/

Cambridge Uni NowCasting study says England at 2,950 infections a day, down from 3,700 a week ago (20% decline), with R under 1 everywhere
www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

and that PHE incidence report England above showing 6.7 confirmed by testing infections per 100,000 population a week (so 600/day) down from 10.7 (840/day) (29% decline).

all appears to be going in the right direction....

@Chaotic45

Oh and onto the very important matter of Bruccianis- the ice cream soda plus an iced bun was heaven!

I made an ice cream soda at home last night. Didn't feel the same but was still very nice.

This talk of Bruccianis is making me nostalgic. I used to go every time I went shopping in town with my mum and grandma for a coke float and a vanilla custard slice. The three of us took DS last year when he was a few months old, for old times sake just before it shut down and we bought one of the coffee mugs!

In other news, I'm seeing people on social media from Leicester today making trips to the Bullring in Birmingham for a bit of shopping. It's never going to work is it.

No the transport police need to be making checks at the station and only letting people going to work use the trains. Everyone can shop online there is no excuse.

Lincolnshire don't want holiday makers from Leicester.

Fancy that the yeller bellies turning the chisits away.

@nagynolonger

No the transport police need to be making checks at the station and only letting people going to work use the trains. Everyone can shop online there is no excuse.

Lincolnshire don't want holiday makers from Leicester.

They will do. Give them time, because no one else much goes to skeggie 😂

Don't forget good old Cleethorpes and Mablethorpe with the bracing wind from Siberia😊

@woodhill

Don't forget good old Cleethorpes and Mablethorpe with the bracing wind from Siberia😊

Ingoldmells and Chapel will be deserted.