Leicester facing full lockdown

[Ifailed]

According to the BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53206506.
Anyone living there - how do you feel about this? Personally I would feel terribly trapped, almost like I was being punished, like when teacher's used to keep a whole class behind due to the behaviour of a minority.

What @Puzzledandpissedoff said. The numbers don't seem to add up with what we're told nationally. And certainly doesn't fit with The Guardian's 'How many cases in your area' map.

Only wanted to say I love your Mayor. So sensible, so calm. Really admire what he said about the inadequacy of the 'status quo' so why would sticking to it be helpful! Logic in a person in a responsible position! Wonderful He should be PM.

Yes not the government's fault.

I am quite repulsed by what Oliver just wrote. Although not surprised. Why single out a group of people? This is just blatant racism.

BLM protests at least had a social purpose. To highlight ingrained privilege and racism. Just like the post.

Parties in Liverpool and jollies to the beach served no purpose other than selfish pleasure. But you can’t bring yourself to condemn that ?

I'm just hoping our town doesn't get an influx of non locals. We've done well enough to have had the lowest infection rate in Leicestershire and I don't want to see that ruined.

But there's another twist to all of this. I've seen reports this morning that there is a strain of flu in pigs emerging in China that has the potential to become a human pandemic. Apparently being monitored closely.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

From ITV today: "Leicester City Council said there had been 944 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the city in the past two weeks"

Unless as I've said this is being masked by falls in cases elsewhere, I simply can't see how these numbers are being reflected in the national figures. I'm no statistician, but can anyone else make sense of this?

Over the past 2 weeks (say from June 10-24, as that fits with the region data we have) there were 17,764 confirmed cases, so 944 would be about 5% of them.

According to the PHE England stats (graph attached, courtesy of @RP131 on Twitter), East Midlands had around 1150 confirmed cases from 10 June - 24 June.

I don't think it fits too badly.

I assume it is because numbers are going down in most places so the local rise is not visible in national statistics

That's the only thing I could think, though with Hancock's refusal to give figures it's hard to know.
Even the Guardian site Chaotica mentioned gives the highest numbers per 100k in Wales with Leicester way down the list, so lord knows what's going on

As said, the danger with suppressing facts is that people make up their own, which is why it doesn't seem to me to be helpful at all

@Chaotica

What *@Puzzledandpissedoff* said. The numbers don't seem to add up with what we're told nationally. And certainly doesn't fit with The Guardian's 'How many cases in your area' map.

It won't, because that is just Pillar 1 testing (clinically driven/healthcare), and doesn't include any Pillar 2 (community). Pillar 2 is now about 75% of tests and positives.

Ah - thank you, Patricia; finally some numbers which make sense to my addled mind

Still not sure, though, why it's Leicester which has been chosen in view of their relative position in that Guardian table (unless that's wrong too of course)

If the BLM events had caused spikes we would be seeing them around the country, there were events everywhere. This doesn't seem to be the case. At these events, as on the beach there were some key factors - many people were wearing masks, they were in the open air and there was some social distancing.

People have mentioned poverty and living conditions. There are many many areas in the UK with terrible poverty and people living in poor conditions - have we seen a trend on cases linked to this?

If we are going to overcome this there needs to be honesty. If this outbreak is due to sections of the population ignoring advice then it needs to be recognised and dealt. If it is mainly the Asian population then perhaps the time is to address the calls of 'racism'. This pussyfooting around citing cultural differences has gone too far. Have your culture but it needs to fit in with the laws and rules.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Ah - thank you, Patricia; finally some numbers which make sense to my addled mind

Still not sure, though, why it's Leicester which has been chosen in view of their relative position in that Guardian table (unless that's wrong too of course)

it is, as said above - it only looks at Pillar 1 testing, the healthcare settings, not Pillar 2, community data. It will only have about 25% of cases.

Yes, just seen your update Patricia. It wasn't very clear that the Guardian's figures didn't include "community cases", so thanks again for clarifying that

There are whole sections of the UK population who have never felt the rules applied to them, whether it be my neighbours, my friends Dad, protestors, beach goers, those instructed to obey Allah or footballers with immaculate hair.

@randomer

There are whole sections of the UK population who have never felt the rules applied to them, whether it be my neighbours, my friends Dad, protestors, beach goers, those instructed to obey Allah or footballers with immaculate hair.

Come on now. MN likes to blame the BAME community. All the I'm not racist but... comments on this thread prove how racist MN is.

Get those tanks on the streets to show those foreign types how to behave.

If the BLM events had caused spikes we would be seeing them around the country, there were events everywhere.

What is needed for the spike is the combination of (i) a potential superspreading event and (ii) the actual super spreader. It is not impossible that this is what has happened in some places and not others.

What we have seen in other parts of the country is plateauing of new cases. In other words, the rate of infection has stopped falling and it is not unreasonable to assume that BLM events might have been a contributing factor.

People congregating and having picnics on beaches are much lower risk since they are unlikely to shout or talk loudly. Protests by definition are not particularly quiet even if people try to socially distance.

What should happen in the case of Leicester though anon.

What we have seen in other parts of the country is plateauing of new cases. In other words, the rate of infection has stopped falling and it is not unreasonable to assume that BLM events might have been a contributing factor

Let's not forget, though, that we weren't promised a "plateau" as a result of BLM protests, packed beaches, football celebrations and all the rest; we were told it would be armageddon

Maybe I'm over optimistic or even just plain wrong, but at least that doesn't seem to have happened - not yet anyway

Let's not forget, though, that we weren't promised a "plateau" as a result of BLM protests, packed beaches, football celebrations and all the rest; we were told it would be armageddon

Who by? not the experts for sure (or none i listened too) outdoor transmission is far less than indoor.

So what is the answer if people in Leicester don’t stick to the guidelines?

So what is the answer if people in Leicester don’t stick to the guidelines?

First, make sure that they know there are guidelines to stick to.

I've been working for a few hours but I'm not sure we've been given rules yet? Shops to close today, schools Thursday, and essential travel only I know about.

I'm not yet sure about- meeting others outside, places of worship, bubbles, Leicester's open air market, parks, golf courses (several in lockdown area), B&Q, garden centres.

Personally I'd avoid all of this but some people need more guidance.

Yeah, let’s lock down Leicester but keep the flights from the US, China, Iran and Pakistan coming in.

Genius.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

Yeah, let’s lock down Leicester but keep the flights from the US, China, Iran and Pakistan coming in.

Genius.

A lot of those people on flights from India and Pakistan will end up in Leicester visiting relatives/ bringing over a new bride/ elderly parent to live with the family. It's very unlikely they will have been isolating in a hotel for 14 days first.