people, please, stay home if you can

[Lua]

Most places that have eased lockdown measures, are seeing an increase in the number of cases. So there is no way around it (at least in the short-term), live a "normal life" and increase the risk for everyone (there are no "personal risk" in a pandemic).

I see a lot of people in mumsnet saying that we suffer too much to save the lives of 80 year olds. While I find this cold assessment horrible on its own, there are so many case of under 60s suffering badly. This is a harrowing picture of 63 year old woman:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/25/from-cold-to-coma-to-homecoming-one-womans-100-days-of-coronavirus

Sure, the risk is low. Sure, we deal with risks all the time. But we also try to mitigate risks all the time. We use seat belts, and we look before we cross the road, we use helmets, etc There are many reasons why someone needs to go into work, and those are understandable. But do people "need" to go to raves, beaches, cinemas? do we really need to go into shops and buy a new summer outfit?

Life needs to be different, and we need to find new ways to make our economy tick. Lots of opportunities in new fields. Lets support each other and look for new ways to make the world go around.

I know of just one person who has been hospitalised with Covid 19 (now home and recovering). I know 3 people who have been made redundant in the last week

Lucky you. I know at least 4 people who've been very sick, and 3 who have died. I know several self-employed people who have had no income for nearly 3 months (can't get help from the government, and no redundancy payments either). I also know that anyone without income will recover, and there is help to support them. The dead are still dead.

There is no solution that works for everyone, but letting the sick and old die isn't the answer.

I'm also waiting on an urgent referral for a respiratory consultation. This was made at the beginning of February as a result of tests I had just before Christmas. At the time I was told I would be waiting about four weeks because they are concerned about my results. Then Covid happened. Obviously, respiratory services were hit hard and I've been shielding at home so don't consider myself a priority.

Last week I had a telephone consultation with a respiratory physio because they are trying to assess people on the list. Apparently they are very concerned about me as my tests are very abnormal for someone of my age but services are still very disrupted and now they are over run with patients who have had Covid. They have no idea how long it will be before I can be seen and that is a direct result of the volume of patients who.now have post Covid complications. How much worse would that be if many more people had it or get it?

Irma I'm not baying about dementia deaths, but those last days were made significantly worse for people as a result of lockdown restrictions.

I am simply trying to point out that lockdown might be stopping deaths from covid, it is also causing untold suffering elsewhere.

I for one won’t be going out loads as I can’t be arsed.

I also know that anyone without income will recover, and there is help to support them

There isn’t help for everyone, no. What is there will run out soon. Furlough can’t last for more than a few months.

Sure economically people may recover eventually, but how long and what cost in the medium term?

Families looking at losing their homes will be not relaxed about the impact that will have on their children’s prospects. By the time they ‘recover’ very serious damage will be done.

You can’t expect people to be ok about not being able to provide for their loved ones.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras where about sin the country are you? The hospital in my area doesn’t have any Covid patients at the moment, out of a population of 260,000. We haven’t had any new infections for over 2 weeks.

It's about having some common sense. My mental health wouldn't survive staying at home indefinitely but I don't want to put myself or others at risk either. Go out but be sensible. Don't go to a very crowded beach in Bournemouth where there's no room to move but yes there are plenty of other almost empty beaches where the risk of transmission would be almost 0%. So you can go to beach but be sensible! Don't go to a house party with loads of people but you can sit in a friend's garden at a safe distance. It's really not rocket science. Just avoid places where there will be lots of people close together. I don't staying indoors all the time is helpful advice when you can leave the house perfectly safely.

The hospitalisation rate is not as high as we think. There have been around 280,000 confirmed cases in the UK. No where near all of them have been hospitalised. Lots are pillar 2 community tests, from care homes, NHS staff tests etc. We can assume everyone that has been hospitalised is within this 280,000 though. However lets for argumente sake say ALL 280,000 confirmed cases needed hospital treatment. Lets compare that to how many we know have had the virus. Antibody tests (which have been proven to miss lots of positives and we do not know how many fight off with T Cells) show around 5% have had it. This is around 3 and a half million. So even if every single person who tested positive needed hospital (which is not the case) it would be around 8% hospitalisation rate. This would be very heavily skewed by the very elderly. I cannot find a figure for how many have actually been hospitalised. It is nowhere near the 20% of cases need hospital that people state on here.

@Alex50

So what’s the answer we sit at home and hide, worrying about what everyone else is doing? I can’t live my life like that, I will stick to the guidelines the government have laid out. I will carry on my life as normal as possible, if I get symptoms I will get a test and isolate for 14 days. You can’t control what other people do and you can’t live your life worrying about whether they are following the rules or not.

But that's all anyone is asking for - do what the government is asking you to do.

You can’t control what other people do and you can’t live your life worrying about whether they are following the rules or not.

Then you are very lucky if you don't have to worry. Sadly, some of us do need to worry because of the serious implications it has for our health. I've always had to worry about the chance of me catching something and have always had to be meticulous with hand hygiene and trying to avoid people who are ill. But I realise how careless people are with others health. I work in s supermarket. Three times now I've served mums with young children, chatted to the kids as I always do, they've handed me money or just been interacting with me only for mum at some point pipe up that the child has chickenpox and they've just come out for X,y or Z. Great. Thanks. That's potentially very serious for me and many others. That's what scares me now. At least other illnesses have treatments that can lessen the risk somewhat. Covid doesn't at the moment.

Alot of the people who were hospitalised for covid were already in hospital for something else too - around 20% of all cases

[quote Alex50]@Hearhoovesthinkzebras where about sin the country are you? The hospital in my area doesn’t have any Covid patients at the moment, out of a population of 260,000. We haven’t had any new infections for over 2 weeks.[/quote]
I'm in London but this isn't about patients who currently have the infection.

This is about patients who had it, have "recovered," but have been left with respiratory complications that now need outpatient treatment and monitoring. That's increased demand on outpatient services and pushed everyone else down the line.

That's what people Barent understanding - the implications of this are much wider than just the risk of dying.

So what’s the answer we sit at home and hide, worrying about what everyone else is doing?

No, we take simple/reasonable precautions like we were asked to do back in February. Wash hands regularly, avoid crowded places, respect personal space, self isolate with symptoms. You can still do things but take precautions. Why is that so hard for some people to understand?

If the beach is crowded, go and find another beach or do something else.

I'm just waiting for the howls of anguish from the idiots who just had to be first to go abroad for their holiday and then whinge that the water park was closed, there wasn't the usual "all you can eat" buffet, etc.

Things ARE different, and they're going to be different for many months. The longer that people don't take precautions and take unnecessary risks, the longer we'll all be stuck with the virus on the loose.

You must be in the eye of the storm, Hearhoovesthinkzebras. I have been to the hospital since lockdown (told to come on in, no excuses!) and the respiratory department after the initial panic is operating just fine.

@IrmaFayLear

You must be in the eye of the storm, Hearhoovesthinkzebras. I have been to the hospital since lockdown (told to come on in, no excuses!) and the respiratory department after the initial panic is operating just fine.

I guess London is in the eye of the storm. I don't know. I can only go by what they told me last week. They are trying to assess people and prioritise but the number of very unwell post Covid patients is restricting the number of waiting list patients that they can see.

I'm under the care of several different consultants at three hospitals in London and all of my appointments are still telephone appointments. I've got three this week coming - all over the phone. The one on Friday was made following a telephone consultation in March where the consultant told me that he needed to see me face to face and would make an appointment for, hopefully, when this was over. So, that's this Friday. I assumed it would be face to face but hot a text yesterday telling me it's a telephone consultation.

So what’s the answer we sit at home and hide, worrying about what everyone else is doing?

No, we take simple/reasonable precautions like we were asked to do back in February. Wash hands regularly, avoid crowded places, respect personal space, self isolate with symptoms. You can still do things but take precautions. Why is that so hard for some people to understand?

I agree, we need to be able to carry on as normal as possible. And if we have a second wave, do you think the government is going to fund people being at home like they have this time, I'd hazard a guess it won't be anywhere near or at all. Do you really not think some companies will just think it's not worth trying to stay open and more people will lose their jobs.

Unfortunately some people won't follow the guidelines, so will go to overcrowded beaches because they can.

I do believe the vast majority of people are still following the guidelines and not go out and about, and making sure they are doing all the protective advice.

@Alex50

So what’s the answer we sit at home and hide, worrying about what everyone else is doing? I can’t live my life like that, I will stick to the guidelines the government have laid out. I will carry on my life as normal as possible, if I get symptoms I will get a test and isolate for 14 days. You can’t control what other people do and you can’t live your life worrying about whether they are following the rules or not.

I'm glad that you'll be doing those things. Unfortunately people who don't will affect me living my life, so it's hard to ignore them. I'm waiting for medical treatment that won't happen if infection rates rise, and I have adult dc who need to get on with their lives and education and who won't be able to do that if covid rates go up again.

This has just been shared on another thread.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-secondary-schools-might-not-be-able-to-fully-reopen-in-september-hrfmxlg5j?wgu=270525_54264_15932550838707_759f0f356a&wgexpiry=1601031083&utm_source=planit&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_content=22278

SAGE are warning that even a modest rise in leisure activities over the summer might mean that secondary schools can't open fully in September. It seems clear that there will be choices to be made and we can't have everything.

You can see the start of the article but the rest is behind a pay wall. This is taken from the other thread and is from the same article

It says

"Public Health England data shows that outbreaks of suspected coronavirus in schools have tripled since they reopened to more pupils on June 1.

There were 44 respiratory outbreaks in schools last week, of which 23 were confirmed as coronavirus, up from 14 suspected in the first week of June, nine confirmed as coronavirus.

Sage documents released yesterday revealed that without an effective contact-tracing system, the return of all primary school children would push the reproductive rate of the virus above the crucial level of 1, even at current levels of social contact.

Even with contact tracing reaching 80 per cent of contacts in 48 hours — better than current performance — the return of secondary schools would be likely to push R above 1 once people return to half their normal level of work and leisure contacts.

It is thought that contact levels are just below this at present and that Sage has concluded there is hope of a full return by September if people interpret social-distancing advice very strictly.

If people increase their contacts scientists have warned ministers that they face the tough choice between keeping teenagers at home or shutting down other sectors of the economy to allow them to return to education. Pubs have been mentioned as an example of what might have to close."

@Kazzyhoward oh for Christ’s sake, don’t make it a class thing. It is absolutely NOT just ‘yobs and chavs’ who are doing what they please now. Not every person whining about their ‘mental health’ (preferences and comforts) to justify their actions is a ‘chav’ in a tracksuit. And not everyone saying the vulnerable should lock themselves away and let everyone else enjoy their life , is a working class ‘yob’ you can look down on or blame so you can distance yourself . In fact, in my experience, the middle classes tend to be much more exceptionalist than anyone else. My OH is from a very well off family, I’m from the roughest of backgrounds. You’d be amazed how selfish, entitled and completely out of touch with reality a posh family can be, all while being incredibly intelligent and generally ‘good’ people. Let’s remember that the initial spread in the U.K. was from people who insisted on indulging their ski holidays and I can assure you, there were no skiers in the council estates I grew up on. There also wasn’t anyone who could afford to stockpile months worth of groceries or snatch up all the delivery slots for themselves. Where I grew up, people have to shop weekly because they never have a big enough block of cash for a monthly shop. They have to walk or bus those groceries home because they don’t drive, and there’s no one going anywhere on holiday any other year never mind in 2020. There have been many many saddening displays of selfishness and despairing examples of human response to a crisis throughout this. And they came from all walks of life.
Your prime minister shrugged his shoulders and assumed it wouldn’t touch US because we ate Britain...we are special. He told you to wash your hands and sing happy birthday, keep up the handshakes and let’s just let it run through the population. He’s not a yob or a chav. The politicians are the ones you should be pointing at. They get paid a lot more to be responsible for public health and order ...than some working class ’chav’

8% is a high hospitalisation rate, unfortunately - only manageable if not many people have the illness but a lot for a new disease if it spreads widely. Enough to overwhelm hospitals if infection rates are high. 20% was an early estimate from China, I think.

I absolutely agree that this is not a class thing.

@eeyoresmiles but like i said it is nowhere near 8% as that only applies if every single person who has tested positive in the uk was admitted to hospital. Which is not the case...

Even if 1000 people a day were admitted every single day for the past 3 months (which there wasn't) this would give a 3% hospitalisation rate.

We didn't need people to be hospitalised for NHS services to collapse. Back in March, before lockdown, wards, clinics and GP practices were closing because of lack of staff due to unprecented numbers of staff being off sick, self isolating etc. Same happened with schools.

It's not just about numbers of infected who need hospital treatment - staff etc with even mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all) need to be off work, and if numbers are high enough (like in march), then NHS services have to be curtailed.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras you’re brave working in a supermarket when you are shielding, that must be very worrying.

I don’t have the answers, all I can do is stick to the guidelines if I do get it I will self isolate for 14 days, I don’t want to give it to anyone and make them ill.

I don’t think most people on mumsnet are breaking the rules. I can’t think of anything worse than driving 2 hours to a packed beach with no toilets, i’d prefer to stay in my garden, I don’t have parties, only my elderly parents visit in the garden social distancing and I have never protested in my life.

I have carried on with my life though throughout lockdown, without going near people.