people, please, stay home if you can

[Lua]

Most places that have eased lockdown measures, are seeing an increase in the number of cases. So there is no way around it (at least in the short-term), live a "normal life" and increase the risk for everyone (there are no "personal risk" in a pandemic).

I see a lot of people in mumsnet saying that we suffer too much to save the lives of 80 year olds. While I find this cold assessment horrible on its own, there are so many case of under 60s suffering badly. This is a harrowing picture of 63 year old woman:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/25/from-cold-to-coma-to-homecoming-one-womans-100-days-of-coronavirus

Sure, the risk is low. Sure, we deal with risks all the time. But we also try to mitigate risks all the time. We use seat belts, and we look before we cross the road, we use helmets, etc There are many reasons why someone needs to go into work, and those are understandable. But do people "need" to go to raves, beaches, cinemas? do we really need to go into shops and buy a new summer outfit?

Life needs to be different, and we need to find new ways to make our economy tick. Lots of opportunities in new fields. Lets support each other and look for new ways to make the world go around.

Yes, kids' education being thrown under a bus, peoples' livelihoods under threat or crashing down round them, teetering on the brink of a worldwide recession is just 'little Johnny' not seeing anyone and staying away from people for 'a few weeks' . Day 96 tomorrow.

The NHS is using Covid to screw everything and everyone else to the wall.

The economy will be fucked if lots of people get ill at once.

I don't understand why so many people think the economy will be saved if we stop bothering to avoid catching and spreading the virus. It won't be.

We have to open up and do things, but if we let infection rates go up as we do so we will damage jobs, the economy, education and hospitals.

So unfortunately we have to carry on making some sacrifices and being really selective and careful about which social interactions we take part in and how we do it. Doing it for other people is a red herring - there are plenty of reasons for people to do it for themselves.

Anyone who thinks their job, their kids' education, their cancer treatment and so on are safer in a world in which covid has been allowed to spread widely again is making a terrible mistake.

There's no such thing as safe.

The thing is you can’t stop it spreading, flights are opening up as of 6th July. You can’t stay locked up forever, you can try to slow it down but you can’t stop it now. Now it’s hit India and Africa there is no way they will test 2.5 billion people.

@DisobedientHamster

The NHS is using Covid to screw everything and everyone else to the wall.

What do you mean? Can you expand on that please? love a conspiracy theory

I know of just one person who has been hospitalised with Covid 19 (now home and recovering). I know 3 people who have been made redundant in the last week

You'd know a lot more suffering with covid if we hadn't locked down. It's because of SD and the lockdown that only 1 person you know got it.

What do you mean? Can you expand on that please?

Have you not heard that there are lots of people not getting the medical treatment they need, at a time when doctors and nurses are still saying the clinics/hospitals are empty and they've nothing to do?

Mt OH is STILL WAITING for his urgent cancer treatment to start again after it was stopped mid cycle in March.

NHS management was a shambles before covid and is is complete meltdown now.

10 million back log of treatment with the NHS now, more people will die of cancer than coronvirus.

This is quoted from a cancer surgeon in a cancer support group (American) I’m in:

“A model created by the National Cancer Institute predicts that tens of thousands of excess cancer deaths will occur over the next decade as a result of missed screening, delays in diagnosis, and reductions in oncology treatment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is important that patients continue to be screened and treated.”

Bilzo British experts have been saying the same thing, right from the start. They have been satpying since March that up to about 3 weeks disruption would probably have made little difference, but when you start counting it in monthsit gets serious, and over 3 months and UK could be looking at 50-60,000 cancer deaths which could have been avoided entirely or would have been significantly later.

I think of that quite often when I see the threads when someone advises those who have been asked to isolate rigidly for 2 weeks before admission to certain hospitals which are being kept clean.

If it proves that public behaviour is such that they cannot be clean, then cancer operations will be delayed even further. Some trusts have take over private hospitals to remove those operations entirely from other hospital departments. But not everywhere has at hand a private hospital with sufficient capacity, and restoration of services emails precarious

It isnt a conspiracy theory, the NHS basically shut its doors unless you had covid. Not all though - my nanna has still been to hospital every other day for dialysis, though she has regularly had to share the unit with covid positive patients. I also had a baby 8 weeks ago in May and could not fault the midwives when I was in labour, they were amazing. However my little girl has not been weighed since she was 5 days old and her 6 week check was over the phone. I have not been offered a post partum check either.
We were given the impression the NHS was like a warzone and not to go anywhere near. I had horrendous palpitations, chest pain and shortness of breath in April
(might have been Covid, who knows) but I felt too scared to go to the hospital

A friend told me 28 year friend died of covid this week. Just sayin.

28 year old friend. Need more coffee.

I've said this before, but my Mum has COPD. Lots of things that circulate freely could potentially kill her, 'standard' flu, chest infections, even a cold.

The country didnt shutdown to protect her and the other hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people in similar situations. They were expected to look after themselves and take their own measures to keep safe.

The initial lockdown was the right thing to do whilst we got a handle on things, but we have to start getting back to normal and this includes people going back to taking responsibility for their own health as they had to previously.

Have you not heard that there are lots of people not getting the medical treatment they need, at a time when doctors and nurses are still saying the clinics/hospitals are empty and they've nothing to do?

Agreed. All of my appointments have been cancelled (not cancer related), I've been told that I won't be seeing my consultant for months now and the best he will then offer is a phone appointment, which is no use as he actually needs to see me to assess the condition. The best they can offer me at the moment is a phone appointment with the specialist nurse, which I've taken but what use it will be I'm not sure yet.

It's a complete shambles.

@Alex50

The thing is you can’t stop it spreading, flights are opening up as of 6th July. You can’t stay locked up forever, you can try to slow it down but you can’t stop it now. Now it’s hit India and Africa there is no way they will test 2.5 billion people.

I'm not sure you have understood how much worse things will be if we do give up and just let it spread here, even slowly. Cancer treatment, for one, cannot properly restart if the hospitals start to fill up with covid patients again. That's not just a problem of capacity - it's also because cancer patients like lots of others can't afford to catch covid, and the more infectious covid patients there are in the community and hospitals, the more likely that is.

It's because covid will be spreading uncontrolled in other countries that we need to keep it down here by our collective vigilance, willingness to social distance when out and self-isolate when ill, and track and trace. It will be hard work, but we don't have a choice because the alternative is even worse. Luckily we're a relatively rich country with good infrastructure, so we at least have a chance of making it work.

Anyone who has family who have already been affected by NHS treatment delays due to covid can help them now by doing their very best to avoid spreading the disease, including by choosing to keep their social interactions low and safe, not just giving up.

@Bubbletrouble43 no offence but please don't "just say". We all know young people can die from this. The point alot of people on here are trying to make is that we have read the data, we understand there is a risk, but now feel that the risk is low enough to want our lives and our children's lives back to some kind of normality

@Bubbletrouble43

28 year old friend. Need more coffee.

Any death of a 28 year old is sad, but the numbers are tiny. There have been 21 reported deaths from COVID in the last month for that age bracket. (20-39 - some of these will be men). 208 deaths since March

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

The comparable statistics for cancer (both sexes, age 20-39) for 4 months is 591 deaths. (1773 per year / 3)

www.cancerresearchuk.org/sites/default/files/cancer-stats/deaths_crude_mf_allcancer_m17/deaths_crude_mf_allcancer_m17.xlsx

We cannot keep society shut down, far more people are going to die from other causes than corona

@eeeyoresmiles

The economy will be fucked if lots of people get ill at once.

I don't understand why so many people think the economy will be saved if we stop bothering to avoid catching and spreading the virus. It won't be.

We have to open up and do things, but if we let infection rates go up as we do so we will damage jobs, the economy, education and hospitals.

So unfortunately we have to carry on making some sacrifices and being really selective and careful about which social interactions we take part in and how we do it. Doing it for other people is a red herring - there are plenty of reasons for people to do it for themselves.

Anyone who thinks their job, their kids' education, their cancer treatment and so on are safer in a world in which covid has been allowed to spread widely again is making a terrible mistake.

Exactly this.

What does everything think will happen if we get a second wave? And unless a miracle happens, if we go back to normal we will have a second wave. What do people suggest should happen next time? Should the NHS just be left to fail? Should there be an upper age limit for admission to hospital? What should that be - 50? What should happen to people not admitted to hospital? Just left to die at home?

The country can't afford to lockdown again so, in the event of a second wave, how do you all see it panning out? Many more people get sick, many others forced to self isolate so they won't be able to work. That will affect shops, food production, banks, internet providers, healthcare, schools etc. Do you think that would be preferable to having restrictions now?

You only have to look at America to see what happens when you lift lockdown too soon. Look at Florida. Is that what you want here because it seems that's what you are all choosing.

Now the UK is going to allow holiday makers to go abroad without quarantining on return, from certain countries only I assume? Wonder what that will do to infection rates?

eeeyoresmiles

Absolutely. People don't understand what caused, and continues to cause, the disruption to healthcare.

They seem to think that it's a lack of will to get it up and running again. Not that it's the need to stop the spread of the virus within hospitals which means it isn't possible for them to return to normal. I've just been reading a Dr describing the hospital that he works in. They have six bed bays and can't admit patients to the middle beds due to infection control. So 6 bed bays are now 4 bed bays. That's capacity reduced by 1/3 immediately. Not only that but on admission patients have to be in a single room until they test negative for Covid, so that strains the system even more.

The more community infection there is the higher the risk in hospitals.

If you all want schools, hospitals and businesses back up and running the answer is to keep infection rates in the community low. That means sticking stringently to the rules. They're not there to frustrate your lives, they are there to try to facilitate a more normal way of living. We can't just "go back to normal" because the virus thrives on that.

We cannot keep society shut down, far more people are going to die from other causes than corona

But if we don't open up very, very safely, then non-corona deaths will go up due to high infection rates. High infection rates will affect society in an even worse way than lockdown. Whatever we do, accepting rising infection rates will make things far far worse than trying to keep them low.

It's not a zero sum game. If the economy tanks there will be no healthcare either. Schools / shops / pubs etc - all play their part in allowing people to go to work and to allow businesses to pay taxes to fund the NHS. It's not as simple as a straight choice between people and the economy, they are firmly intertwined.

Everyone should be tested coming in and out of the country if we want to control the spread, otherwise I can’t see how we are going to manage it. I can’t see people doing lockdown again unless there is a serious risk to their personal health or forced by a controlled state. Look at everyone already, a lot of people not sticking to the rules.

@NothingIsWrong

It's not a zero sum game. If the economy tanks there will be no healthcare either. Schools / shops / pubs etc - all play their part in allowing people to go to work and to allow businesses to pay taxes to fund the NHS. It's not as simple as a straight choice between people and the economy, they are firmly intertwined.

So surely the answer is to strike a balance?

Work out the safest way to open up things again so that the economy can start up again whilst trying to keep a lid on infections?

But that involves people being sensible and responsible which it seems many Brits aren't capable of right now.