people, please, stay home if you can

[Lua]

Most places that have eased lockdown measures, are seeing an increase in the number of cases. So there is no way around it (at least in the short-term), live a "normal life" and increase the risk for everyone (there are no "personal risk" in a pandemic).

I see a lot of people in mumsnet saying that we suffer too much to save the lives of 80 year olds. While I find this cold assessment horrible on its own, there are so many case of under 60s suffering badly. This is a harrowing picture of 63 year old woman:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/25/from-cold-to-coma-to-homecoming-one-womans-100-days-of-coronavirus

Sure, the risk is low. Sure, we deal with risks all the time. But we also try to mitigate risks all the time. We use seat belts, and we look before we cross the road, we use helmets, etc There are many reasons why someone needs to go into work, and those are understandable. But do people "need" to go to raves, beaches, cinemas? do we really need to go into shops and buy a new summer outfit?

Life needs to be different, and we need to find new ways to make our economy tick. Lots of opportunities in new fields. Lets support each other and look for new ways to make the world go around.

But people aren't allowed to crowd together and are meant to be 2 metres away from those outside of their households. So those people on the beaches weren't abiding by the rules.

Unless you were there you don’t know that. I strongly suspect most were. They were outside, the risk is tiny.

@saltycat

The thing about bars in Southern Europe where the most strict lockdowns happened, is that most of them can open with outdoor seating.

Many of us know that the most pleasant aspect of eating and drinking in such countries is the ability to sit outdoors and people watch. And the virus apparently does not move much outdoors either.

I don't know how Northern European countries are coping, someone might know wrt outdoor seating, but no matter where I went in Europe, even for the Christmas Markets in deepest cold etc, there was ALWAYS an opportunity to sit outdoors with heaters, blankets and so on to people watch, was great.

Not so much here. Large gatherings indoors do not fill me with confidence anymore.

I’m just telling you what my relatives who live in these countries are telling me. FIL apparently left a restaurant on Saturday night as a large group of ‘madrilenos’ weren’t abiding my social distancing rules inside a restaurant in their local town. There is this strange view over here than in other European countries people are meekly staying at home without a murmur of dissent, and in my experience that is not true.

@IcedPurple

Well, ONS estimates cases to be 1:1100 in the community, so not hospitals or nursing homes

Are you seriously saying that you do not consider a less than 1 in 1000 chance of catching Covid to be a tiny risk? Do you apply the same assessment to the myriad of other risks we all face every single day? Or just this?

No I don't consider it a tiny chance.

A secondary school has around 1000 students so that's roughly one student in every secondary school.

The shop I work in has about 100,000 customers a week. That's 10 customers a week with it.

@Teateaandmoretea

But people aren't allowed to crowd together and are meant to be 2 metres away from those outside of their households. So those people on the beaches weren't abiding by the rules.

Unless you were there you don’t know that. I strongly suspect most were. They were outside, the risk is tiny.

Ok. So all of the newspapers and TV journalists and eye witnesses are lying?

No I don't consider it a tiny chance

OK, if you want to live in fear of a less than 1 in a 1000 chance of something, then go ahead and do so. But you'll have to accept that others will make different risk assessments and live their lives accordingly. They are of course perfectly entitled to do so.

@IcedPurple

No I don't consider it a tiny chance

OK, if you want to live in fear of a less than 1 in a 1000 chance of something, then go ahead and do so. But you'll have to accept that others will make different risk assessments and live their lives accordingly. They are of course perfectly entitled to do so.

People are entitled to.live differently to me. They aren't however, entitled to endanger other people whilst doing so.

People are entitled to.live differently to me. They aren't however, entitled to endanger other people whilst doing so

No they’re not entitled to. But they do anyway. As I said, my brother was killed by a drink driver. Was the driver entitled to drink and drive? No. Did he do it anyway? Yes.
Do you honestly never mitigate for people not following rules in your day to day life? So you don’t lock your house up when you go to bed, or when you go out? Don’t take your keys out of your ignition? Don’t take well lit routes when walking home in the dark?

You cannot accuse people of endangering others just for leaving the house

People always go back to normal after 9/11 people thought numbers flying would drop, and they did for a while as people were scared there are new security measures but after a while it picked up and now more people fly than before 9/11
Humans are social animals no touching and social distancing will not work or last
All over Europe restrictions have been eased for weeks there have been some localised outbreaks ( not second wave) which have generally been swiftly spotted tested and traced and local lockdown for a few weeks
Everything depends on the economy and people working no work no taxes no revenue no spending in NHS benefits or education
People will have to live with virus like they live with Malaria elsewhere
the numbers may go up against next winter but then "normal flu" numbers go up each winter, people seem to forget that on average 28,000 people die from flu each year in UK that is 76 per day obviously it is much more in winter and less in Summer, how many people that died from covid would have died from normal flu this year instead?
in June the average daily number of deaths is about 1150 a day so just today 1000 people died of something else
There maybe some long term minor changes, more people working from home at least a few days a week, maybe some staggered starts, maybe handwashing and cough etiquette will improve, but people want to stand and chat in bars they want to talk to more than the other 5 people they came with, they want the buzz of crowded restaurant, maybe long term people will be more sympathetic to people WFH if they have a cough or cold

Thank goodness there are some realistic people on this thread.

hearhoovesthinkzebras - I too am shielding and was one of the first with the text and just got the latest letter. BUT I don’t think that everyone should live a reduced life for the foreseeable future to protect MEEEEEEEEE. I am not (particularly!) old and I couldn’t bear to see my dcs miss out on schooling, socialising and getting a job because of any risk to me. That to me would be supremely selfish.

It’s fair enough to be astonished at people going to crowded beaches or “raves” (sounds very Aciiiiid !) but you seem to be getting hot under the collar about people doing anything - all because you want to preserve you.

And, as was pointed out upthread, were you cowering indoors a couple of weeks before lockdown? Because you were more likely to catch it back then.

Driving down the101

I hear you and understand.

Still the opportunity to dine and drink outdoors is a lot easier there than here!

But you'll have to accept that others will make different risk assessments and live their lives accordingly. They are of course perfectly entitled to do so

So i do what i like based on my "instincts" catch CV, in a mild form, pass it on to my DD who is doing care work and she gives it to someones much loved Granny who then dies a horrible lonely death?

Most risks in life are in the 10s of 1000s to 1 if not higher and tend not to effect many other people, so the drink driver above, killed an innocent person, he didn't carry on killing 100s, he/she hopefully went to jail.

Covid has gone from a disease no one had heard of at Xmas to having killed (officially) around 500k worldwide and is still killing at a very high rate and as we come out of lockdown, we can travel and infect those from overseas too.

Some people have a very cavalier approach to other peoples health.

@Drivingdownthe101

People are entitled to.live differently to me. They aren't however, entitled to endanger other people whilst doing so

No they’re not entitled to. But they do anyway. As I said, my brother was killed by a drink driver. Was the driver entitled to drink and drive? No. Did he do it anyway? Yes.
Do you honestly never mitigate for people not following rules in your day to day life? So you don’t lock your house up when you go to bed, or when you go out? Don’t take your keys out of your ignition? Don’t take well lit routes when walking home in the dark?

And as I've asked countless times, how, exactly do I or my husband or my son mitigate for this?

There's a nursery in Milton Keynes now with an out break affecting 20 staff, children and parents - how do you mitigate for this? Come August there will be currently shielded staff and children in nurseries - how can they keep themselves safe?

How do you mitigate against an invisible disease and potential carriers who refuse to follow the rules that limit spread?

Most risks in life are in the 10s of 1000s to 1 if not higher

Are you sure?

No they’re not entitled to. But they do anyway. As I said, my brother was killed by a drink driver. Was the driver entitled to drink and drive? No. Did he do it anyway? Yes

Exactly - as I said upthread, you can't control others behaviour - the vast majority of us are sticking to the rules, social distancing etc. You just never hear about the ones going about their business as normal though, it's not newsworthy enough I suppose!
Doesn't get people clicking articles or frothing enough.
You can't just lock yourself away forever in case you get mugged/car accident etc.
Well, you could, but it'd be no life.
Sorry to hear about your brother

IrmaFayLear

But I haven't said people should stay at home, miss school, or not get a job to.protect meeeeee!

I've said people who refuse to follow the rules are selfish. You can still go out, go to school, get jobs whilst following the rules.

And, as was pointed out upthread, were you cowering indoors a couple of weeks before lockdown? Because you were more likely to catch it back then.

Was I cowering? No. I haven't been at home cowering at any point. Did I see what was going on, speak to my consultant and isolate on his advice ten days before lockdown? Yes, I did.

There's a point in all of these threads where it heads south and that point is normally when hooves shows up. Tonight is no exception. You constantly accuse us all of being selfish and me, me, me but I think you are the absolute epitome of me, me, me. You constantly have a go at us for doing what we are allowed to do. You seem to want us to stay locked up for ever to protect the 'shielded'. I know, on here and IRL, a few shielded and you are the only one who constantly goes on, and on, and on, and on.

1 in 100 people die every year
you are least likely to die when you are 10 have some road sense not likely to have accident like a toddler but not "it won't happen to me teenage attitude the risk of a 10 year old not making their 11 th birthday is 1 in 13,000 obviously risk is not evenly spread but most likely cause of death at 10 is an accident , your odds never get better than 1 in 13,000 this doesn't stop people doing stuff
if 1 in 2000 have the virus and half cases are in care homes or hospitals that is 1 in 4000 in the community
if you meet someone at 1 metre for 10 minutes the odds of you catching it are 13% ( at 2 metres its 3%) this now equates to 1 in 32,000 overall the fatality rate is thought to be about 1% higher if older and ill much lower if younger ie at school) so overall your chance of dying is about 1 in 320, 000 that is much less than the risk to the average 10 year old from just living
most encounters without social distancing or just at 1 metre are brief walking past someone in a shop or corridor at work
The chances of catching something from a surface is many many times lower than from being sat next to them on the bus for an hour
in a school it is most likely to be transmitted from one pupil to another in the classroom where they are togeher for 4-5 hours rather than having touched the door in exactly the same spot as someone else

I guess there is a problem in that people will follow rules as a whole provided they don't hit obstacles

So it's been tough, you decide to drive to Bournemouth for they day

You get there. It's heaving, but you have to stop for at least half an hour to recover from the drive ......and it feels so good......

@jasjas1973 your risk of just catching covid is 1 in 1000. That does not mean instant death. You then have a very high chance of being asymptomatic and not even aware you have it, or being mildly ill. You have a very small chance of needing to go to hospital. Judging by your username you are in your 40s. According to PHE you have between 0.024% and 0.36% chance of dying from covid. So yes your risk of first catching it then becoming seriously ill is in the tens of thousands to 1

if 1 in 2000 have the virus and half cases are in care homes or hospitals that is 1 in 4000 in the community

Well none of your calculations are relevant because the figures are 1:1100 within the community, excluding care homes and hospitals, so all your calculations are hypothetical, so irrelevant really.

You seem to want us to stay locked up for ever to protect the 'shielded'.

Not at all. I've said it repeatedly. I don't want people to do anything other than follow the rules.

Chris Whitty has tweeted warning about the scenes on beaches and said that we could see a second spike if people don't adhere to SD - are you telling him that he's the epitome of me,me,me and constantly going on?

How has it become more unacceptable to say "please follow the rules" than it is to say "you were going to die soon anyway why should we protect you anymore?"

Also did you know 30,000 children a year end up in hospital with RSV? 6% need ICU. They get that from other peoples common cold.yet we dont keep them away from school and nursery. People have lost the ability to assess risk

[quote Jrobhatch29]@jasjas1973 your risk of just catching covid is 1 in 1000. That does not mean instant death. You then have a very high chance of being asymptomatic and not even aware you have it, or being mildly ill. You have a very small chance of needing to go to hospital. Judging by your username you are in your 40s. According to PHE you have between 0.024% and 0.36% chance of dying from covid. So yes your risk of first catching it then becoming seriously ill is in the tens of thousands to 1[/quote]
Yet the shielding letters say we have a high chance of becoming seriously ill and being admitted to hospital. They don't say you have a high chance of being asymptomatic or only mildly ill.

So, maybe for the general population there's a very small chance of getting ill but for others there's a high chance of getting seriously ill.

I did exactly as I was told until two weeks ago when lockdown loosened. I made a decision to have two families round. We stayed two meters apart, outside and brought our own food - it was against the rules but frankly safer than going to the supermarket because I knew those two families hadn't been anywhere for the whole of lockdown. So I will make my own mind up. One of my kids is back at school - that's a bigger risk than having family that I know have hardly been out round my house. We need to start getting back to normal now - the risk for us is incredibly low. If you are high risk you need to behave as such but low risk individuals can start to have their lives back.

These threads are so pointless. The vast majority of people are obeying the guidelines most of the time. Although there were hundreds of people on those beaches, that still represents a tiny fraction of the population. The vast majority of them won't have COVID. Any that do will probably not be very close to anyone other than their own group.

And, though I am no mathematician, just because 1 in 1000 people has it in the community doesn't mean that your chance of catching it is 1 in 1000 - even assuming that every day you met 1000 people. Most of the people with the disease will be unwell and staying at home. It's only the very mildly ill and asymptomatic ones who will be going out.