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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

982 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 16:05

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

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Thread gallery
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cathyandclare · 25/06/2020 16:41

@Aubretia25 If you click for more information on that page, the 482 figure looks like it relates to June 10th. So, that page may be a bit behind the government figures. Today's figure should be on the daily slides later. They do seem to have been generally going down, although they fluctuate quite a bit.

cathyandclare · 25/06/2020 16:42

I see Patricia beat me to it!!

Aubretia25 · 25/06/2020 16:58

Thanks both. I was hoping (more than!) one of you would come up with an explanation which didn't indicate a steep rise in admissions.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/06/2020 17:05

We need to keep an eye on trends on ICU totals

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itsgettingweird · 25/06/2020 17:07

Agree big I've noticed that some days admissions have been up and rather than compare to previous week they've compared to peak or some other figure.

cathyandclare · 25/06/2020 17:12

Ventilation figures were 311 yesterday though. My friend is an intensivist in Birmingham and they had a tough time through the peak, they whole ITU became Covid-free a couple of days ago after they discharged their last patient.

BabySleepTeacherUK · 25/06/2020 17:36

Checking in

Jrobhatch29 · 25/06/2020 17:47

@torydeathdrug do you have a link to that study? Cant seem to find it. Would be interested to read

PumpkinPie2016 · 25/06/2020 17:48

No daily briefing slides today? I know the actual briefing isn't happening but they did say they would still publish the data slides and we did get them yesterday.

PatriciaHolm · 25/06/2020 17:58

@PumpkinPie2016

No daily briefing slides today? I know the actual briefing isn't happening but they did say they would still publish the data slides and we did get them yesterday.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-on-coronavirus-25-june-2020

Just appeared!

cathyandclare · 25/06/2020 18:21

Admissions up at (419), but down on the same day last week. Ventilation much the same (316).

PatriciaHolm · 25/06/2020 18:29

7 day rolling averages on admissions and beds continuing down as well. Admissions seem to very much follow a pattern of dropping over sat/sun then up again (today's data is from Monday).

torydeathdrug · 25/06/2020 18:33

@Jrobhatch29 it was reported in the Telegraphy but I couldn't find a link to the study either, I wondered if anyone else had!

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/25/highest-coronavirus-immunity-found-austrian-ski-resort/

"Almost half the people living in an Austrian ski resort that was a major centre of the European coronavirus outbreak now have immunity, according to a new study released on Thursday.

Scientists from Innsbruck Medical University found antibodies to the virus in 42.4 per cent of people in Ischgl.

It is one of the highest coronavirus infection rates yet discovered anywhere in the world. A similar study in Geneva found antibodies in just 10 per cent of the population, while in the Italian ski resort of Val Gardena, it was 27 per cent.

“We believe super spreading events, such as those that took place in après-ski bars, made a significant contribution to the widespread spread,” said Prof Dorothee von Laer, the leader of the Ischgl study.

The scientists behind the new study claim it is the highest infection rate found anywhere in the world. A study in Bergamo released earlier this month found antibodies in 57 per cent of people in the Italian city, but the authors of the Ischgl study claim their research is based on more rigorous testing and a higher sample size."

"Research for the new study took place in April, after the resort had been closed to tourists and placed under quarantine"

"1,473 Ischgl residents took part in the study, accounting for 79 per cent of the village’s population.

The scientists followed a rigorous procedure. Blood samples underwent at least two antibody tests, and in some cases were tested four times to eliminate false positives."

Nihiloxica · 25/06/2020 19:02

Ventilation much the same (316).

If ventilation is the same, but they are ventilating less frequently now due to improved treatment protocols, is that a sign of increasing infection?

Nihiloxica · 25/06/2020 19:06

I hope those sufferers don't come up against disbelief when they seek medical support or try to claim benefits.

Disbelief is embedded in the disability benefits system in the UK.

However, awards are made on the basis of effects, not diagnosis, so disbelief about how the effects came about shouldn't come into it as long as there is evidence of the effect.

wintertravel1980 · 25/06/2020 19:10

I would look at 7 day averages for all key indicators. The accuracy and completeness of daily submissions from hospitals can be patchy (especially over the weekend but also during the week) so longer term trends will be more useful than daily numbers.

PatriciaHolm · 25/06/2020 19:13

This is the original press release for the Ischgl study, seems only available in German -

www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html

PatriciaHolm · 25/06/2020 19:16

@wintertravel1980

I would look at 7 day averages for all key indicators. The accuracy and completeness of daily submissions from hospitals can be patchy (especially over the weekend but also during the week) so longer term trends will be more useful than daily numbers.
yep - and 7 day averages for both admissions and ventilation are down, about 15% week on week in both cases.
itsgettingweird · 25/06/2020 20:09

I wonder if admissions going up Monday is also a reporting lag? So it includes admissions from a weekend that weren't reported?

It's not solely the weekends that are extremely busy in beaches and parks so I cannot see that being the reason even though we know it's usually day 6-8 you get ventilated if you are severe.

torydeathdrug · 25/06/2020 20:13

thank you @PatriciaHolm :)

PatriciaHolm · 25/06/2020 20:19

@itsgettingweird

I wonder if admissions going up Monday is also a reporting lag? So it includes admissions from a weekend that weren't reported?

It's not solely the weekends that are extremely busy in beaches and parks so I cannot see that being the reason even though we know it's usually day 6-8 you get ventilated if you are severe.

Yep, I'm sure that's the case as we have several large trusts - for example several in London - who don't seem to report at all over weekends.
averysuitablegirl · 25/06/2020 21:17

Thanks for the new thread.

PumpkinPie2016 · 25/06/2020 21:24

Thank you Patricia.

I agree that 7 day averages give a better indication of how things are going. Reporting lags over weekends affect the figures as do other factors.

This week's average cases should be down again as we had 3 days below 1000. Slightly above 1000 today but still lower than the same day last week, so still a downward trend.

Overall, everything continues on the downward trend which is good.

whatsnext2 · 25/06/2020 21:47

Summary of Ishgl study from Twitter
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1276108130125066241.html

BigChocFrenzy · 25/06/2020 21:55

The study report from Uni Innsbruck (in German)

www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html

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