Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Have they stopped posting the slides and data on the Gov.uk site. I thought they said they would continue with those even after the daily press conferences stopped but there is nothing since Friday 26th.

@larrygrylls antibodies sadly are Not the holy grail, numerous studies now show they diminish after several months. T cells immunity, although difficult to test for and not as efficient as antibodies has been shown to last for years against coronavirus, hence probably gives reduced symptom severity.

Schools re opening in Switzerland doesn’t seem to have increased infection rate
ncs-tf.ch/en/situation-report

@meercat23

Have they stopped posting the slides and data on the Gov.uk site. I thought they said they would continue with those even after the daily press conferences stopped but there is nothing since Friday 26th.

I was wondering this too, I am sure they said they'd continue. I did see that on 6th July they are going to start sharing more localised data so maybe they have paused while they are working on that.

Please can I ask a question about legalities on here? It would perhaps be more appropriate for the "Leicester" thread, but unfortunately what was a pretty good discussion is starting to become derailed with accusations of racism

My question concerns reports that the law's going to be changed to make sure non-essential shops, etc, are closed, but I thought that already existed - unless so far it's merely guidance?

FurForksSake OK thanks. That could be it. I was finding some of those slides useful and hoped they would continue.

It previously existed as law, but has now been changed and in any case operated as law for all of England. There was no power to introduce a localised lockdown on these lines.

Swiss class sizes are less than 20. Not sure what other differences there are.

@meercat23 there is a new website for this now which is interactive and helpful. Will try and find it for you. Only thing is hospital admissions data seems stuck on 16th June.

Here’s the new website coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Frazzled Thank you so much.

It's just been updated for today

155 deaths
689 cases

Yes, steady drop continues which is encouraging in view of the Leicester news.

Definite steady drop. Last Tue saw 874 cases and 166 deaths (that's new cases/deaths not including historic ones which were added on).

Quite a few days of cases below 1000 over the last week or so as well.

Agreed that it's very encouraging despite the Leicester situation.

Re. the Switzerland schools and infection. Did they have as many active cases as us when they reopened? If circulating virus numbers are very low, then transmission in schools will also be low. If, like the UK, there are still quite a lot of cases in the community (diagnosed and undiagnosed) then the transmission rate in schools and into the community will be much higher presumably. So it is not necessarily a useful comparison. Also if the inconvenient testing is putting off people with mild cases from coming forward for testing, then our numbers will be even higher.

Apparently according to local news in my area, Suffolk has seen a 50% “spike” in cases over the past fortnight!.... .

That seems to be based on Pillar 1 cases increasing from a grand total of 2 for the week a fortnight ago, to 3 over the past week....

Of course, complacency is wrong... but really!

@Frazzled2207

Thanks... Good info.

Interesting to see the growing gap between testing and test capacity. I believe the army are setting up more testing stations generally, but of course people need to be ill and go to them for this to be of any use.

Also, they should be clearer that the daily admissions doesn’t refer to today... it’s actually 2 weeks old!

I’m pleasantly surprised that numbers of infections have continued to fall like this... I was expecting much more of a plateauing.

How ridiculous that hospital admissions data is missing for so long!

Oh I didnt know hospital admissions were 2 weeks out lf date! How long has that been the case?

Phew, I can relax....

With today’s figures, one of Suffolk’s 3 cases now becomes one of the previous week’s cases, and there’s a new historical addition of a case result about 10 days ago.... so in the space of a couple of hours, Suffolk has gone from a 50% spike over a fortnight, to a 50% plummet .

Obviously a running commentary on Suffolk’s cases is hardly riveting and I won’t be continuing ... but it just goes to show how stats can be abused!

@Derbygerbil That highlights the issue with % data doesn't it!

50% of 2 is very different to 50% of say 1000.

When case numbers are so small they should stick to figures instead of %.

I'm pleasantly surprised that case numbers continue to fall plus deaths/patients in hospital/patients in ventilation beds also seem to continue on a downward trend.

Has anyone seen this article about the cases in Leicester and the lack of information given out on pillar 2 cases?? This seems a disaster waiting to happen elsewhere.
www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

There are more up to date admission figures on some of the slides- they're a bit up and down though

there are more recent admissions numbers than on the new site (which is stuck on the 16th for some reason)

from @PatriciaHolm earlier "Yes -we have them up to 23 June on the datasets that have been going with the slides - latest for UK then was 391. "

I don't know why the covid site hasn't been updated with that data.