Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

With COVID, age is such a dominating factor that if the death rate of patients admitted is reducing,
I would expect that means that more younger patients are being admitted

• unless there has been a significant improvement in treatment, also possible.

Younger patients would be much less likely to die, so they would be a smaller % of the deaths
and hence older patients would be a higher %

Other countries such as Germany and the USA have evidence that more of the younger people are becoming infected as lockdown is eased,
so I'd expect the UK to behave likewise

There has been no scientific evidence produced so far that the virus is weakening / much weaker variant

• and I gather it was expected to take a year or 2 before this might happen -

but that is another possibility

@Bigchoc. That isn't the case though - because the average age of people who die has got older, not younger. It's not plausible that the age of people catching it and bring admitted to hospital has got younger, and at the same time the age of those who die has got older (not unless doctors had somehow got better at treating young people and worse at treating old ones, which seems unlikely)

Sorry I don't get it, re it being younger patients now as lockdown eases and younger people are going out more.

In Mar-April those dying would have mainly become infected pre-lockdown, yes?

Is it just that the vulnerable were/ are still in many cases staying home or shielding, which only a few were doing pre lockdown?

I tend to think it's more to do with the threshold for admission being lower. Which would seem likely if Germany's fatality rate has stayed more constant, as they've always had a lower threshold.

Oh sorry have just seen that @BigChocFrenzy says Germany are reporting a lower fatality rate as well. Bang goes my theory.

The total number of people dying with Covid-19 in hospitals in England each week has fallen from a peak of 899 on the 8th April to 50 on the 15 June.

On first reading it looks like weekly deaths were 899 on 8 April, but it must be deaths on that day... It’s not clearly written. It’s almost feels as though it’s been deliberately phrased to mislead.

You would think/hope that medics would be better at treating patients and that would be reducing the death rate. Also might suggests that the (unproven) theory of the virus weakening may be true?

Do the datasets still routinely show positive test numbers for people already in hospital? Many of whom might not be very ill with covid at all...

"a peak of 899 on the 8th April"

Yes, hospital deaths only

Total deaths on 8 April were 1,445 - but that tends not to get mentioned in official statements
or the 22 consecutive days on which total deaths exceeded 1,000

Firefliess If the infected patients are a higher % of younger people, but a lower % of both middle-aged and elderly,
then the average age of patients would be lower, but fewer middle-aged would die
It is possible then that the average age of death could be higher, since the number of young dying is v v low

e.g. invented example:

before, say of every 100 patients,
there were 20 young (0 died), 30 middle-aged (1 died), 50 elderly (5 died)
there are 5 elderly out of 6 deaths

now, say
there are 40 young (0 died), 20 middle-aged (0 died), 40 elderly (4 died)
there are 4 elderly out of 4 deaths

"Can anyone point me in the direction of where I can find the European average no of cases? I believe it's being used as a benchmark for deciding if Greece will allow flights from the uk over the summer."

@theskyispurple Sorry for late reply - you probably have the info now, but ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/us-visitors-set-to-remain-banned-from-entering-eu

A key threshold is the EU average infection rate of around 16 per 100,000 inhabitants
with only those countries with comparable or better rates considered for inclusion.

@Bigchoc But those stats would suggest that the death rate has fallen for younger people, but not for older people. Perfectly possible with small numbers as in your example, but less likely on the scale of UK infections.

The news today is all about Leicester. Wonder what it is about Leicester that has made it spread there rather than other places? It's certainly not people crowding onto the beach - Leicester is about as inland as you can get!

The issues with Leicester and many and complex

• big food manufacturing sites
• terraced housing
• large non-english speaking populations

-HMO's and overcrowding of families into one house

I am wondering if some of it is caused by Eid sadly, that could have caused a lot more spread as it wasn't widely done with good adherence to guidelines (would christians / celebrators of christmas have adhered?? almost certainly not).

They can't solve a lot of that and I can't see how they can stop people leaving. I live 50 miles away and the plumber sent by my builder was from leicester (he told me this after he had been in my house without a mask for an hour...)

Bet you were quoting your username FurForksSake!!

-HMO's and overcrowding of families into one house

I read that parts of Leicester are full of housing managed by appalling landlords who leave their properties not much better than slums.

So not only are people overcrowded, they are overcrowded in unhealthy conditions that don't meet public health standards - damp, poor ventilation etc.

Is this accurate, do you know?

@sleepwhenidie

Bet you were quoting your username FurForksSake!!

i felt like such an idiot for not insisting and also not putting one on myself, he was briefly pretty close to me a few times and afterwards I was very FFS!!!!

The etiquette on masks and people in the home is tricky right now.

@Nihiloxica

-HMO's and overcrowding of families into one house

I read that parts of Leicester are full of housing managed by appalling landlords who leave their properties not much better than slums.

So not only are people overcrowded, they are overcrowded in unhealthy conditions that don't meet public health standards - damp, poor ventilation etc.

Is this accurate, do you know?

One of the faith leaders was saying as much. I have worked a bit in Glenfield Hospital and the staff there have told me just how bad some areas are. A quick google also has some stories. I am not sure if it is particularly worse than other areas, but the mix of issues creates a massive issue.

I have worked a bit in Glenfield Hospital and the staff there have told me just how bad some areas are.

Shit. Although, as you point out, this could be a widespread issue in UK cities.

Not only was the public health infrastructure deliberately run down, we have people living in Dickensian housing. Which we KNOW (and have known for centuries) has public health implications.

Fuck.

Covid-19 intensifies elder abuse globally as hospitals prioritise young

Very grim when insufficient resources to treat all cases, or when vulnerable elderly are resented for lockdowns

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jun/30/covid-19-intensifies-elder-abuse-globally-as-hospitals-prioritise-young

Older patients turned away or left untreated, while domestic abuse is also rising, leading charity reports

stuart mcdonald @ActuaryByDay

Over the last five weeks, non-COVID deaths have been around 95% of the 5yr average.
That’s about the same as they were before the pandemic.

So I’m not seeing any evidence supporting the idea that many of those who died during the COVID peak would otherwise have died around now.
......
non-COVID deaths are about 5% lower than average, just as they were between Jan and mid March.

Overcrowding is generally considerable worse in London than other parts of the country (because housing is so much more expensive there) I don't think the housing in Leicester is really much different from most other cities in the Midlands or North of England. Eid (late May) and specific factory outbreaks look more likely explanations for an early June outbreak

I am leaning towards the fact that London has a measure of herd immunity.

I do believe London was hit early and hard. The ski season in Europe is big for many Londoners and we also have Chinatown and the two biggest airports in the UK.

I am not convinced that the antibody tests tell the whole story. Do they pick up those partially immune from having been partly infected by other Corona viruses or those who somehow never develop the disease. I know of several people who tested negative despite having very corona like sicknesses early in the year (including loss of smell and taste).

Another theory that I have heard is Londoners are mainly white collar workers, who find it easier to work from home than, say, in the industrial conurbations in the Midlands.

Many around here (London, Zone 3) seem to be very relaxed about social distancing now. We also had the riots. I guess the next few weeks will tell whether we do have a measure of immunity or just not enough contact YET for a second wave.

What riots? We haven't had riots in London since 2011.

Some of the Black Lives Matter protests turned into a bit of a riot. Then there were also far right protests/riots in response.

I doubt there were really that many people involved though - compared to the numbers who may be gathering in indoors private gatherings or working in factories. It's the indoors, out of sight, gatherings that pose more risk than riots or beach visits.

• "a peak of 899 on the 8th April"

Yes, hospital deaths only*

Total deaths on 8 April were 1,445 - but that tends not to get mentioned in official statements
or the 22 consecutive days on which total deaths exceeded 1,000

despite following these thread I hadn't realised that. That's actually really saddening statistics

It was said on an news interview earlier with a councillor in Leicester that language barrier was a huge issue with understanding.

You'd think I'm a diverse 21st century U.K. that wouldn't even be an issue. Surely as a minimum you deliver messages for all minority groups as standard?
That includes disability - so signed, Braille, etc

Its shocking that we still have such poor housing. One of the priorities after this should be better houses. It seems the government have actually cut their budget for affordable housing.