Anyone else think our reprieve might be short lived?

[Lemons1571]

The briefing just seemed so, abrupt today. Suddenly it’s ‘the last ever briefing’, most things are allowed to open up next week, keep your distance, and then a “right we’re off good luck” sort of exit. While there’s still hundreds of deaths a week.

Seems a bit premature - I would’ve thought they would at least do a weekly briefing. I can’t decide if they think taking the briefings off the air will be “out of sight out of mind”, and people will chill out and start spending and going out again. Or whether they’ve run out of steam and need a break before the autumn colds season descends. Whitty seemed sure this wasn’t going anywhere and we’re in for a year plus of this. What do you think?

I wouldn’t anticipate a vaccine for general use until early next year (ie in operation like the flu vaccine and available to all) but I’m hopeful of something for those most at risk. Vaccinating all HCP’s plus care home residents and staff would make a huge difference on its own.

Personally I think the government are hoping that being first in the queue for the first licensed vaccine will be their political get out of jail free card so if there is even a small chance they can make it happen earlier they will throw everything at it.

I can’t believe they would be willing to produce 10s of millions of doses of vaccine prior to the conclusion of the trials if they weren’t at least 50:50 on it being effective.

As you say time will tell, I’m watching closely for news and keeping everything crossed!

280 deaths today on world in data. Last time it was near that number was 2 weeks ago

I don’t even know any more! 🤷🏻‍♀️

"I believe the first wave was beginning of December-end of January then there was a lull and then it returned with a vengeance"

A "lull"?

You think this virus just thought, jeeez, Christmas was a bastard, I need a break and took some time off? Have a word 🥴

280 deaths today on world in data. Last time it was near that number was 2 weeks ago

I assume this is for the UK as opposed to England?

I have tried looking around via Google to try and find England’s daily death rate but I can’t find the information anywhere.

154 deaths and 600 and something cases.

The cases are massively down with a lot of tests.

Yep. Few months of summer fun then inevitable peak. Sigh.

@hedgehogger1

280 deaths today on world in data. Last time it was near that number was 2 weeks ago

That was yesterday

A number of historical deaths were added to the overall figures yesterday which I suspect were included in the Worldometer figures for today.

@Flowerycurtain

"600 cases and that's with a lot of tests"

How many of those tests have had results?
We know that the government count a nose and throat swab as 2 tests so that artificially inflates the number of tests.

We also know that the number of tests includes those that are posted out. So if they say 150,000 tests today, that could be 75,000 test packs have been processed. Of those 75,000, half may have been posted so we're down to 37,500 tests done and the rest in the hands of Royal Mail. Some will never be delivered, some will be put in a drawer because "I'm feeling better now so I'll save that for if I get ill again", some will be completed and posted back......

What would actually be useful to know is how many RESULTS there were yesterday, and of those how many were positive. That would be much better than a standalone number of positives with no context.

How many of those tests have had results?
We know that the government count a nose and throat swab as 2 tests so that artificially inflates the number of tests.

I didn't know that. I had both done, i certainly had no idea that they would be calculated as 2 separate tests.

We know that the government count a nose and throat swab as 2 tests

Do we know that?

And it's not 'the government' who calculate the test figures. It's the NHS.

The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England have both confirmed that where a nasal swab and saliva swab are taken from one person they are counted as 2 tests.

The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England have both confirmed that where a nasal swab and saliva swab are taken from one person they are counted as 2 tests

So not 'the government' then.

@IcedPurple

The Department of Health and Social care is a government department.

Have I somehow offended you by suggesting that the government may not be being 100% transparent in the data that they're providing?

If so sorry, but here's another fun fact from the Government website.

They count and report the number of Pillar 3 and 4 tests (antibody and ONS survey) in the daily figure but don't include the number of positives from those tests in the cases daily figure. Screenshot of .gov.uk webpage included.

I personally feel that we're in a much better position now than we were in the few weeks before lockdown. If you recall, they would only test people if they had been abroad, yet we now have been told that Covid19 came to the UK on 1300 different occasions, from Europe, so as many suspected, the actual cases were much higher at this point, we just didn't know! Someone on MN said before lockdown there has been estimated as 100,000 daily cases, though in unsure if that's true and if that's UK or Worldwide.

This time, anyone can get tested, so we can keep a much clearer picture on local figures and act quickly now the testing systems are in place.

Add into this the vaccine developments and the newly discovered treatment for worse cases, we're in a position we had hoped for coming out of lockdown.

I think that many people like myself and many of you will be cautious, we won't head straight into packed pubs or mix closely and so the government and their scientists have probably used data from pubs to work out how much % of people will do this and how many % of these people may have Covid when they do and they will consider if those numbers are manageable. Its not great because we wnat numbers DOWN but at this point, new cases may be offset by an even lower community transmission and care homes more under control too. I hope!

Summer will help keep cases low, we can have friends for Bbqs and meet outside which is what most people do in the summer. By September when the kids are due to return, the cases should hopefully be low enough to really stamp it out, possibly died out before then.

Disclaimer: Not a scientist, just applying my own logic.

@RapidRainbow You're so right. My DD2 (8) and I both reported symptoms of COVID-19 in late February/early March, yet they refused to test us because we hadn't been overseas or in direct contact with a confirmed case. But there's no real doubt that I had it, having had long-term symptoms, and my DD2 was unwell not long after me (though in her case only for 4 days!).

We weren't told to self-isolate back then, and it would have been the same story for a lot of other people. There really is no surprise that the virus spread the way it did.

[quote Mittens030869]@RapidRainbow You're so right. My DD2 (8) and I both reported symptoms of COVID-19 in late February/early March, yet they refused to test us because we hadn't been overseas or in direct contact with a confirmed case. But there's no real doubt that I had it, having had long-term symptoms, and my DD2 was unwell not long after me (though in her case only for 4 days!).

We weren't told to self-isolate back then, and it would have been the same story for a lot of other people. There really is no surprise that the virus spread the way it did. [/quote]
I hope I'm right! Don't get me wrong, I do wish the cases were lower before lockdown lifts, but, it's not happening yet and I imagine the government have a figure in mind of where they expect cases to be and are acting on that figure, not the current figures.

Yes everyone I speak to has been ill with CV symptoms prior to March which could obviously be flu but very apparent that it could very well have been Covid.

The way our curve went could just have been representative of our testing growing and detecting more cases, perhaps if we'd had the capacity to test everyone from Day 1 we'd have had even higher figures. Our peak may have just been the point when our testing capabilities met the number of cases presented.

It's very much a theory but I stand by our position is much stronger now so hopefully that means any new outbreaks will quickly be detected to stop the all out chaos we had in March.

And there is still every possibility this could die out completely in the summer in the UK which will bring its own challenges with stopping it being imported but eventually when all countries run their course and all have a similar grasp of their cases, we shall see a return to the old way of living, albeit hopefully more healthier and hygienic.

@TorysSuckRevokeArticle50
What would actually be useful to know is how many RESULTS there were yesterday, and of those how many were positive. That would be much better than a standalone number of positives with no context.
^^ Exactly that

OneMetreWithMitigation

You do know what “waves” look like

"I’m sorry but I find it incredibly hard to believe that any doctor is spouting that there is no possibility of a vaccine or cure! They must have very little faith in their research colleagues."

Its nothing to do with faith in their colleagues. If its not possible then its not possible.

@Oliversmumsarmy

Yep. Totally understand

"I believe the first wave was beginning of December-end of January then there was a lull and then it returned with a vengeance"

Care to explain the absurd theory I questioned? How exactly does that work?

Oliversmumsarmy. I read a theory put forward by a medic (a while ago and won’t be able to link) that the first peak was nov, dec, jan with so many unexplained ‘flu type’ illnesses around, and that it was Covid and mutated in to the second stronger peak that we are seeing now. In fact that it was in wuhan a few months before that.

I read a theory put forward by a medic (a while ago and won’t be able to link) that the first peak was nov, dec, jan with so many unexplained ‘flu type’ illnesses around, and that it was Covid and mutated in to the second stronger peak that we are seeing now. In fact that it was in wuhan a few months before that.

^That figures in a way. From what I've read about the Spanish flu in 1919, that's what happened. It is clear that there were cases of COVID-19 in Europe at the end of last year; I saw on the News that a post mortem on someone who died back in November showed that he died of COVID.

There's certainly plenty of anecdotal evidence of a pneumonia type illness at around that time.

It's also hard to believe that, with regular flight from Wuhan, it's hard to believe that there were no cases of COVID in Europe before mid February.

@PomBearsyummy

How can they possibly know, after 6 months that it is not possible? They don’t know, no-one does. It’s opinion, not fact.