Anyone else think our reprieve might be short lived?

[Lemons1571]

The briefing just seemed so, abrupt today. Suddenly it’s ‘the last ever briefing’, most things are allowed to open up next week, keep your distance, and then a “right we’re off good luck” sort of exit. While there’s still hundreds of deaths a week.

Seems a bit premature - I would’ve thought they would at least do a weekly briefing. I can’t decide if they think taking the briefings off the air will be “out of sight out of mind”, and people will chill out and start spending and going out again. Or whether they’ve run out of steam and need a break before the autumn colds season descends. Whitty seemed sure this wasn’t going anywhere and we’re in for a year plus of this. What do you think?

@HollyBollyBooBoo

Yeah crazy times. Our business is already prepping for the second wave (which apparently always happens in pandemics) from October onwards. The NHS' ability to deal with the second wave will be severely compromised compared to the first wave because it will already be stretched due to the natural winter increase in requirements for its services.

Also because we have massive NHS waiting lists from the first lockdown that we simply cannot afford ignore.

@RightIsRight

I’d describe myself as centre left if pushed and whilst I’d like to consider myself realistic I’m also pretty optimistic about the ability of science to pull us out of this! There are plenty of people of my persuasion who are of a similar opinion. The “left” are not a single homogeneous group anymore than the “right” are.

One day this will be history

I think the penny has dropped that the economic fallout of a lockdown is not worth it/ will cause more disruption and fallout than they could have predicted at the start.

They know there will likely be a second wave, but this is the lesser of two evils as the economy cannot be allowed to falter again.

I think they're right to choose the economy in this way FWIW

@ FrugiFan

My sister who is a GP Head Practice partner (Oxon DPhil in some disease research too) in a large 10 GP plus surgery plus also a medical officer for her authority is pretty surprising unimpaired by Covid. She had more than one negative tests so far and getting on with a relatively new normal daily lifestyle. Out and about and not as risk averse as me. So from this particular doctor’s experience she is not massively changing but moderately adapting her daily life.

Don’t think she ever mentioned about the Oxford nor Imperial research.

Not been in touch with former Cantab gang but one went on post tripos to John Hopkins apparently. I think for neuro from distant memory.

People are getting a touch judgy on Mumsnet as obviously we Uber privilege mums are just here for entertainment “wfh” as an art form waiting for Covid cures to arrive via expedited Amazon Fresh!

Any death is truly terrible but why do so many people still think that the number of deaths given each day is from the previous 24 hours?

It’s been written time and time again that it is recorded deaths, not actual deaths. NHS England show how many deaths in the previous 24 hours in hospital (5pm - 5pm I believe)
Yesterday it was something like 8.

It’s only making some people’s mental heath worse just reading a headline and nothing else.

Yellowbutterfly1

I do not think the technicality matters but the point is sadly each number is a loved one (and one too many) as there will more daily. All lives matter! That’s the sad part and people seemingly (some political “leadership”) happy for the lowering rates of daily overall Covid fatalities. I am guessing so many of us survivors are massively Covid fatigued and not sensitive to this anymore as possibly why English/UK government dispensing with daily briefings.

@somewhereovertherainbutt

Wasn't the whole point of being able to ease lockdown the (now laughable) test and trace system in the UK?

What’s laughable about it, may I ask?

The thing is there's 3 types of people in this country regarding their own behaviour over the virus.

1. Follow every rule and guideline to the letter at all times

2. Generally follow the rules and guidelines but will risk assess and apply common sense and good hygiene practice

2.5) Try and follow the rules but give them an inch and they'll take a mile

3. Will do what they want and don't give a shit

The 1's are generally shielding so have good reason. If everyone else could abide by 2 we'd be okay.

The problem is we're relying now on those living in England using common sense when the 3's are increasing and there's an awful lot of 2.5's

@CloudsCanLookLikeSheep

I think the penny has dropped that the economic fallout of a lockdown is not worth it/ will cause more disruption and fallout than they could have predicted at the start.

They know there will likely be a second wave, but this is the lesser of two evils as the economy cannot be allowed to falter again.

I think they're right to choose the economy in this way FWIW

Yeah, and they're right. But as i've touched on in above post, relying on people's common sense is basically setting up for a second wave.

annabel85

Nice one and I concur!

Could apply same generalisation for most if not all rules and laws.

Perhaps 3 could be also known as the Cummings and going type!

Lives have always mattered but until COVID we did not hang on every death as it occurred. Half a million children dying of malaria in Africa every year and no one bats an eyelid. My dad died of sepsis 2 years ago, one of the 40,000 or so who die of sepsis every year.

When deaths are occurring is relevant in terms of a discussion around people’s perception of risk. If think 171 people actually died yesterday then I can see that they would be more concerned about the pace of relaxation.

@HollyBollyBooBoo

Yeah crazy times. Our business is already prepping for the second wave (which apparently always happens in pandemics) from October onwards. The NHS' ability to deal with the second wave will be severely compromised compared to the first wave because it will already be stretched due to the natural winter increase in requirements for its services.

There was an Australian poster on another thread saying their levels of flu (in their winter) were lower due to increased hygiene measures/distancing, hopefully that will be the same here.

I'd love to think everything will be ok but I am cautious and worried about a second wave.

I am currently type 1.5 but was pre pre lockdown and before bulk buying was a thing type 0.5 as we lockdown too late and unlocked too soon!

UK Covid numbers possibly suggest anything to anyone? 50k is not a good look on anyone’s watch is it?!

Annabel I agree, let's hope most of us can be a 2 and mostly stick to the rules and not go crazy and we can avoid a second wave.

I don't think Boris will quit yet, he's got to claw back some of his legacy - using Brexit I assume.
Let's all watch him cock that up too (I'm a remainer, so very happy to cancel Brexit completely)

@AlexTheLittleCat

Annabel I agree, let's hope most of us can be a 2 and mostly stick to the rules and not go crazy and we can avoid a second wave.

And now the rules are a lot more lax from July it requires people being able to risk assess and using common sense.

However, each time rules are relaxed the 2.5's come out. Like when you could suddenly travel through England without restrictions and suddenly people are traveling hundreds of miles to a beach and then pissing and shitting all over it because the loos are shut.

I won't be going to the pub next weekend, i'll be at least waiting to see if people can follow the guidelines first and which pubs apply them within reason.

I think we have to work on the generally true assumption that about 80% of the people will follow the rules most of the time, making a few more or less sensible judgements when they don't. Actually it seems that most people hardly transmit the virus but about 20% of sufferers do most of the spreading - we know of several cases of households where only one or two members tested positive while the others just didn't get it. So once the numbers are pretty low the risk decreases substantially.

It also appears that there will quite a few people jumping with glee if/when we have a second wave - some just cannot wait for the 'I told you so'.

Let's hope that apart from small spikes in some places which can be shut down quickly we don't actually get one.....

@FromMarch2020

It also appears that there will quite a few people jumping with glee if/when we have a second wave - some just cannot wait for the 'I told you so'.

Let's hope that apart from small spikes in some places which can be shut down quickly we don't actually get one.....

It'll depend how a second wave is defined anyway given that we still have a thousand plus new cases a day in the first wave.

The virus won't vanish. It's a balancing act of keeping the economy running through the rest of the year while not overwhelming the NHS. Winter is going to be tough given that it always is anyway

@Sunshinegirl82

I’m optimistic and I remain optimistic! 40 million doses of the Oxford vaccine have been ordered and are expected to be delivered by October (assuming it works). I see no reason why the government would sit on 40 million doses of the vaccine and 3 months seems a reasonable time frame to vaccinate the most vulnerable (not everyone but those most at risk).

I accept it might not happen but I hope it does and I think there is a chance that it will.

But they've made the vaccine before the results of the trials are known. That's the issue. They need to test safety and efficacy. I've not seen one Dr or scientist saying that there will be a vaccination programme this winter.

Yes, they have made it anticipating results of clinical trials in August. They may not get those results in that timeframe (and of course it may not work at all) but if they do they will be ready to go. They now have trials ongoing in Brazil and the US where transmission rates are higher and so results should be quicker.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-manufacturing-begins-on-millions-of-doses-of-the-oxford-vaccine-candidate/amp/

It also appears that there will quite a few people jumping with glee if/when we have a second wave - some just cannot wait for the 'I told you so'.

I certainly won't be. I desperately hope there won't be a second wave but I can't see how we prevent one without being proactive and that's what worries me.

@Sunshinegirl82

Yes, they have made it anticipating results of clinical trials in August. They may not get those results in that timeframe (and of course it may not work at all) but if they do they will be ready to go. They now have trials ongoing in Brazil and the US where transmission rates are higher and so results should be quicker.

And I'll believe it when it happens. I've read lots of views from doctors and scientists who all say the very earliest we will have a vaccine ready to be used will be next year and that will be with everything going as planned, so no safety concerns, tolerable side effects, efficacy proved.

Time will tell.