Do people think it’s over now?

[SpookyNoise]

I’m surprised at how many people seem to think the lockdown is over and there is no threat from the virus. I’ve had a friend ask us over for dinner in their house, and my son has had a friend ask him over to play. We declined both invites, obviously. Has anyone else got friends who think it’s all over?

It is nuanced and local outbreaks are affecting the statistics. It is also impossible to understand from a single R figure whether spread is in the community or in settling such as care homes and hospitals. A blanket R > 1 = bad and R < 1 = good is overly simplistic and not very meaningful.

Particularly as we understand more about how this particular virus spreads and that it seems to spread in clusters with a few people passing it on to a lot of people but most people passing it on to very few or none.

I would recommend people check the LTA data on the government coronavirus to inform their decision making on this. The virus hasn’t magically disappeared, although in some places it’s very much suppressed.

In my town there were no cases in March. The peak came much later and we continue to see a ton of new cases every day. So it’s not particularly safe to go back to normal.

So it’s not particularly safe to go back to normal.

To go back completely to normal as a society at this point would be insane, completely crazy.

It would be like going on a diet, getting close to your desired weight, and then return to eating cakes and pies whilst also being confident you will still continue to lose weight and reach your goal!

Even those people who felt lockdown was a mistake and excessive surely must see the way out isn’t to congratulate ourselves with “mission accomplished!” and that this would risk undermining everything, including the freedoms they, and we all, want to return.

@EmMac7 Where do you live where there's a 'ton' of new cases every day?

I’ve had multiple people tell me that “Covid is over” this week.

The same delusional mindset that earlier in the year had people believing it could never get like Italy here is back, now equating 7% of us being infected to herd immunity.

You can’t fix stupid.

@WinningEveryDay

East Kent.

Even if you wanted to go completely back to normal, you can’t, it is currently completely impossible for me to live my “normal” life.

And what's your version of a 'ton' of cases. Because i'm not seeing them for that area.

It varies, usually 4-5 a day. But the LTA are pillar one tests (hospital only) so for 5 new hospitalised cases for my town there are likely 50 or so suffering at home. Nine people died in a nursing home around the corner 2 weeks back. My neighbours on the left side currently both have confirmed Covid, and so does the fellow two houses up. An ambulance took someone away from up the street last night. So you can fuck off with your skeptical crap.

And if you still don’t believe me, check out this article. Kent is totally out of whack with most of the rest of the country. Regional variation is a thing.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/23/17-cities-counties-had-no-confirmed-covid-19-cases-last-week/

@WinningEveryDay

And what's your version of a 'ton' of cases. Because i'm not seeing them for that area.

Even 1 case is too many to contemplate getting back to "normal" That one person could infect more people who infect other people and then a shopworker who infects an ICU worker and then a fairy somewhere falls down dead

It's not being sceptical to say 5 is not 'a ton'. It's being factual.

Kent as a county has reported just over 6,000 confirmed cases in a population of almost 2 million.

If you have different statistics than the actual official ones, i'll be thrilled to hear them. Or you can just keep telling people to fuck off because they challenge your hyperbole with actual facts

I've just watched Boris, it seems that they are lifting quite a few restrictions on the 4th July.

R is not an indicator of prevalence at all but a forward looking indicator of prevalence as it is is telling you the rate at which cases increase or decrease.

The smaller subset of R you look across, the more nuanced it becomes, as in localities with few cases, a local hospital outbreak greatly affects it (as in Germany or S Korea).

According to JoinZoe, they believe there are currently around 136,000 symptomatic cases of Covid in the uk. This number is big enough for averaging to be effective and local outbreaks to little affect R.

Please do take a look at the site (linked to again below), especially the animated graph half way down, showing the number of infected plunging, then declining more slowly, and then stable to rising a bit.

This is a reputable site and used by many organisations in decision making.

covid19.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

I've just watched Boris, it seems that they are lifting quite a few restrictions on the 4th July.

About bloody time.

So can't wait for an afternoon in the beer garden with my friends :)

Mr Johnson rather, I know people get their knickers in a twist when people say Boris.

Yes I can get my hair done, 2 metre rule reducing, schools should be able to open fully in September 😊

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53146191

@WinningEveryDay

You appear to just be here for an argument. Does it need to be said again that the UTA and LTA case numbers are hospitalised, pillar 1 cases only? That even if the community drive through and post in testing numbers were included they are still only a small fraction of actual cases (current sampling indicates 1/5 to 1/4)?

If there’s 5 hospitalised cases popping up in a day in a smallish town (and 9 poor souls lost in a nursing home nearby) the virus is alive and well in one’s area.

I’m so happy lockdown is ending 😊

Nope, not looking for an argument at all, nor has anyone on this thread said the virus has been eradicated. What is important however, is to be factual about infection rates.

You're the one that told me to fuck off (bit argumentative no?) when I queried what you meant by a 'ton' of new cases daily. I assume because you felt silly since you meant 5 and not 'a ton'.

Oh look, you ignored the heart of my post again. 😂

So let’s do some simple maths. Let’s say 10% of cases are hospitalised (I think that’s very generous, if you include asymptomatic cases, but anyway). So 5 new hospitalised cases in a day = 50 actual cases a day. In a smallish town. Or we could take the Covid Joe data, which reports 0.8% of the broader area is currently suffering from Covid symptoms. A long way from 1 in 1700, no?

There is regional variation. You can live in denial if you like. Better yet, why don’t you come visit East Kent, if you’re so confident it’s safe? The beach is real swell here.

Where are people getting the one in 1700 person infected? My zoe app which is run with kings college, and works with the NHS estimates that 0.4 % are infected in my area. That's just under 1 in 200.

@Happydaysforever123 - can Iask which app you are using@? Searching Zoe covid just gets me this

Nope EmMac7, not ignoring your posts or your unevidenced assumptions about how many undiagnosed infections there may be, nor am I saying there is no regional variation. I'm looking at actual confirmed statistics. Even the article you linked said the entire county of Kent reported 119 confirmed cases in a week, and confirmed cases in total throughout CV of over 6,200 which in a population of over 1,800,000 really isn't high at all.

And I don't take the Zoeapp as valid reflection of infections due to the limitations of its users and therefore, it's data (admitted by the producers of the app).

Particularly so given the number of MNetters i've seen saying they've been logging symptoms which they know are not CV related and then directed by the app to have a test (I don't think anyone came back to say they tested positive). So no, the zoeapp reporting whatever % of people having SYMPTOMS is meaningless as the symptoms on that app can be attributed to numerous other things. Positive tests have meaning however.

'And I don't take the Zoeapp as valid reflection of infections due to the limitations of its users and therefore, it's data (admitted by the producers of the app).'

You should, it is one of the best indicators that we have. They themselves give confidence intervals depending on number of users and how often they report. They are generally reasonably tight.

@larrygrylls

I don’t think people understand the Maths, but a virus does. It care, it will still obey it.

Right now, the risk of being infected is tiny. It is very safe to see people. However, this tiny risk now seems stable, not diminishing (an r of about 1). If enough people take this tiny risk, next week it will still be tiny, but a little less tiny, and even less tiny the following week. In a couple of months it will be significant again, and we will need another lockdown.

Sadly, we are not a very communitarian minded nation right now, so people will do what they want. My bet is another lockdown in September-November.

Another lockdown in September-November would be terrible and threaten to prevent school reopenings. Which is precisely what’s wrong with the government’s approach. Better to keep suppressing now so that we’re in a much stronger position then. Or at least be careful with the reopening in order to break the transmission links (eg only allowed to visit one different household every two weeks).

What’s making me nervous is that it’s exploding in other parts of the world but here we’ve decided we’re basically done with it. OK.

@larrygrylls Its a research project which isn't even supported by NHS England and used by only 3% of the population and those users are disproportionately young, female and of a higher socio-economic status than the general population.