Do people think it’s over now?

[SpookyNoise]

I’m surprised at how many people seem to think the lockdown is over and there is no threat from the virus. I’ve had a friend ask us over for dinner in their house, and my son has had a friend ask him over to play. We declined both invites, obviously. Has anyone else got friends who think it’s all over?

Those who think it is all over may want to review the below. Currently about 136,000 symptomatic cases in the U.K. (relatively few but far from zero) and r in London estimated at 0.9. It won’t really take much more relaxation to restart case growth.

covid19.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

@Alipaules33 🤣🤣🤣🤣 brilliant. You've explained it there perfectly.

Life is pretty much back to normal for me. Apart from queuing at the shops that is!

Not back to normal here. Still furloughed with no return date, kids still off school, husband still working from home in spare room, can’t go to doctors, dentist or hairdressers, can’t go in a pub or restaurant, all kids activities still closed, our summer holiday has been cancelled can’t go in anyone’s house, can’t even use the public toilets in the local park.

Baffles me that people feel life is back to normal

I don't think it's all over yet and continuing to shield. Had a telephone appointment with asthma clinic nurse today and she doesn't think it's all over either, doesn't even want me coming for proper appointment yet due to the potential of coming into contact with covid patients, I don't drive and would have to take the kids. She's trying to stablilise my asthma for now till it's safe to attend the clinic, her words. Iin our case wants us stay inside or in garden as can't social distance effectively due to my son and his meltdowns. To me that says it all. But yeah feels like some people think it's all over.

If the government or public health bodies could tell us all to reduce our contacts with other households by, say, 95%, for a while, and know that we would all do that, then they could do a type of lockdown that way.

They don't think that will work though, so instead what they've done is try to get the same temporary huge reduction in interactions that might spread the virus another way. They've done it by putting interactions into categories (essential vs nonessential, work vs play, leisure vs school and so on) and they're blocking and limiting things by category in an attempt to get the same result which is most of us interacting with lots fewer people.

These categories are arbitrary as far as the virus is concerned, yes it will spread as much on an essential shopping trip as on a nonessential one, but the point is by stopping and starting different categories of interactions at different times we can keep infection levels low. Sorting our interactions into categories and having some allowed and some not at any one time is just a means to an end. Just like how in some countries they tried having days when men could go out and days when women could go out - the virus isn't less dangerous to people on their day, the point was just to have fewer people out.

@userxx I can’t take any credit sadly, saw it on someone’s FB and thought it’s irony was brilliant!

@BluebellForest836

Upthread some people were saying they assumed anyone who was concerned about the virus or considered themselves at risk would be at home, and so those who were out and about need not bother taking action to maintain distancing or hand hygeine when out and about.

Went into the local town today for shopping at M and S fine but roads all closed off so people can social distance (which they weren’t) and now no disabled spaces at all

Yes, most people I know do think it's all over. Some are still continuing their isolation (and good luck to them) but some who I'd expected to isolate until the end are now easing up.
Personally, I think the govt got it a wrong to start with, but I backed them and stuck to the letter of the law (and there was no risk of fines around here.) 3 months later I'm sick of their lies and am now pretty half-hearted in their support. I'm pleased to see so many other people just ignoring it now.

It may be lower now in UK but they are having a second spike in Germany and US. I just heard on Sky news today the highest number of new cases since pandemic began. It is rife in South America.

It will not take much to flare up again. I have noticed in UK and in Germany it has flared up in meat processing plants where they work in chilled environment. This virus likes the cold.

Please try not to break the distancing rules and if you meet up do it out doors where the virus is not passed on as much. If you go into shops or are in close proximity wear a face mask. You can get them on internet now. If we all keep sticking to rules now we will get back to normal sooner and our kids may be able to get back to school in September.

Yes, Germany's R rate is reported as having tripled in the last two days and is now 2.88! I am amazed, I had no idea things were going so badly there.

Hadn't seen this thread but literally just posted something similar.

Had a friend invite me for dinner today - didn't go but my other friend did and they did not social distance.

Other friend wants me round to help decorate her new place as she's recently moved.

People asking to meet up to go shopping and to the pub when they open.

It's very stressful and I feel stupid saying no all the time

Yes, Germany's R rate is reported as having tripled in the last two days and is now 2.88! I am amazed, I had no idea things were going so badly there.

Its not going badly there. The high r number is due to an outbreak at a meat plant, and isn't an indication of massive community spread.

But the fact is, when places reopen, cases go up. Its expected and not really a reason to panic.. We can't hide inside forever.

The R rate cannot be looked at in isolation. It doesn't necessarily mean the virus is rampant across the population at large but is often due to a location specific outbreak, like the meat plant in Germany mentioned above, or the hospital in Weston Super Mare.

The r rate is based how much one person spreads if they are infected. If you are seeing more people, not social distancing as much then yes the R rate goes up. I don’t know why people are surprised by this!
I doesn’t mean we should stay locked up forever!!

Bottom line is they asked you to do something illegal with a hefty fine! Wouldn’t be a friend of mine anymore.

'The r rate is based how much one person spreads if they are infected. If you are seeing more people, not social distancing as much then yes the R rate goes up. I don’t know why people are surprised by this!
I doesn’t mean we should stay locked up forever!!'

Ummm, The R rate has MEANING, it is not just a number. If R rises above 1, the case rates start an exponential increase. They will eventually get to untenable levels again and we will HAVE to lock down hard or go for herd immunity.

The problem with herd immunity, as tempting as it sounds, especially if you are young and healthy is that when the epidemic reaches a certain level, people lock themselves down. They are either afraid to go out or looking after sick children or parents.

The research shows that managing an illness is both better in terms of deaths AND economically than a free for all.

We should intelligently manage opening up, not a perpetual lockdown but neither a free for all, ignoring all guidance...

The R number only has meaning when viewed in the context of the number of infections and where those infections are. The R number in the SW was increased by an outbreak in Weston General Hospital but the infections in the SW were still among the lowest in the country.

I wish they’d never used the R rate as a measure for the public. It is pretty nuanced and now prevalence is low is likely just to cause unnecessary alarm.

Life is nowhere near back to normal!

We are both working stupid hours from the dining table and kids no sign of rerurning to school.

And with the odds of 1 in 2,000 having it, I am pleased society will be opening up more.

I hadn't seen my mother for 5 months and decided to visit her. I stayed outside out of respect for her and it was a much needed boost to her mental health to see the children too.

Sunshine,

The R number overall is not ‘nuanced’, except when you get to very low case numbers, when local outbreaks affect the national statistics. This is the case in Germany and South Korea, but not the U.K, where we still have plenty of cases.

The R number is far more important than the case numbers as it is a forward looking indicator of the epidemic, not coincident or backward looking.

The R number in the SW was totally skewed due to one hospital outbreak in one area simply because the numbers were so low in the SW. That's why it's nuanced and why the R number isn't a reliable indicator of prevalence.