Vaccine thread

[Layladylay234]

I know someone on another thread suggest someone start one of these. Considering I've just watched a video with the person leading the vaccine trial,I thought now's as good a time as any. Here's the link to the video,it's really hopeful

yes, 1000 is the phase 1 group, but that's the one that we were wondering if they might have some efficacy data on by now. The 10,000 group doesn't have an end date until May 2021. I'd like some idea of how the results are going already - hoping Brazil and South Africa will give some good data, if they have study finishing dates that are in the autumn. The large US sample would be good too but I don't think that will finish any sooner than the UK sample, unless they decide that the results are good enough from the other data and finish early.

Challenge trials would be extremely useful, but I know I'd not volunteer for that, and wouldn't expect anyone else to - although I know there is a list of volunteers who are willing!!

I suppose they have to decide what is the minimum length of time it's worth having a vaccine for. If it only covers 6 months, then you might use it for front line health workers and (if they can safely receive it) the exceptionally vulnerable, and not attempt to vaccinate those in normal health with no occupational risk

(Interesting to see if the 'why should be be restricted when we're not going to die, everyone else should protect not us' posters would think if that happened, and protection could be by vaccine not just isolation)

So they need to trial it for as long as it takes (possibly on several cohorts) to establish how long it is likely to pretext for. Which is a question that needs a rather more certain answer when it is likely it will wane in months/years, rather than years/indefinite.

I thought it was the results of the phase 1 trial that were announced on Monday - it does produce an immune response. That wasn’t a blind trial.

Phase 2 and 3 are about how many people who have received the vaccine get infected compared to the control group, and they are waiting until a total of 30 are infected. Then they will unblind, and know who got which vaccine.

I think phase one was certainly blind to the participants - I know people in it who don't know which vaccine they got - but it may not have been blind to the researchers if they were looking at the data all along. And yes, that's the one that was announced on Monday. But I'm surprised that they didn't also get at least a sense of its efficacy at the same time, but have concluded that there would just not have been enough transmission for the small number of participants to generate any reliable data (though I'd be interested if any of the vaccine participants did come down with it - at what point, after single dose, double dose, etc). I understand they can't comment on that though, as there would be a lot of media mis-reporting.

From a lengthy interview with Neil Ferguson, on timing of a vaccine, he says: "Best case, the UK population will have some vaccine available to target high-risk people by February, March. More realistically, this time next year.”

"Ferguson expects the UK will have an effective and scalable vaccine by the middle of next year, perhaps as early as the spring. The Oxford project, which is seeking to produce a recombinant vaccine, has entered phase three trials. The genome of a different, attenuated virus - adenovirus – is edited so that when it is introduced, the body starts making the coronavirus spike protein, triggering an immune response. There are no human vaccines yet licensed using this technology, although it has been shown to be effective in animal studies. There is, for instance, an animal rabies vaccine produced commercially using the technology.

“I would give it probably a 50/50 chance that we will have demonstrated some degree of efficacy and safety of a vaccine candidate by mid-November to early December,” Ferguson says. “The benefit of the Oxford vaccine is that it builds on what’s a known vaccine platform; it’s a technology that has been used before. But there are dozens and dozens of vaccine candidates and developments. We will get a vaccine. It will not be a perfect vaccine, probably, but it will probably be good enough. Best case, the UK population will have some vaccine available to target high-risk people by February, March. More realistically, this time next year.”
www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/07/covid-modeller

I am confused...Why is it now next year for the oxford vaccine when previously they were getting doses ready for October?

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]From a lengthy interview with Neil Ferguson, on timing of a vaccine, he says: "Best case, the UK population will have some vaccine available to target high-risk people by February, March. More realistically, this time next year.”

"Ferguson expects the UK will have an effective and scalable vaccine by the middle of next year, perhaps as early as the spring. The Oxford project, which is seeking to produce a recombinant vaccine, has entered phase three trials. The genome of a different, attenuated virus - adenovirus – is edited so that when it is introduced, the body starts making the coronavirus spike protein, triggering an immune response. There are no human vaccines yet licensed using this technology, although it has been shown to be effective in animal studies. There is, for instance, an animal rabies vaccine produced commercially using the technology.

“I would give it probably a 50/50 chance that we will have demonstrated some degree of efficacy and safety of a vaccine candidate by mid-November to early December,” Ferguson says. “The benefit of the Oxford vaccine is that it builds on what’s a known vaccine platform; it’s a technology that has been used before. But there are dozens and dozens of vaccine candidates and developments. We will get a vaccine. It will not be a perfect vaccine, probably, but it will probably be good enough. Best case, the UK population will have some vaccine available to target high-risk people by February, March. More realistically, this time next year.”
www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/07/covid-modeller[/quote]
Wasn't this the guy that predicted 500'000 deaths/had lots of animals slaughtered in vain/broke his own lockdown rules and works for imperial not oxford ?

There was an update from Oxford today to say that the trials were still going well so far, and it says there

"AstraZeneca forged deals with multiple countries to produce more than two billion doses of the investigational Covid-19 vaccine and hopes to secure approval by the end of this year."

I can't find it in this one, but am sure I read that the doses have already gone into production, in the hope that it will be approved, and so the first batches will be ready to go if it is. But, like I say, I can't now find where I read that, so that might just be wishful thinking!

www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-progress/

Wasn't this the guy that predicted 500'000 deaths/had lots of animals slaughtered in vain/broke his own lockdown rules and works for imperial not oxford ?

If you had read the piece I linked to it addressed all of those points. I never said he worked for Oxford, am well aware of who he is and works for and was merely sharing his view on the timetable for a vaccine.

[quote duffeldaisy]There was an update from Oxford today to say that the trials were still going well so far, and it says there

"AstraZeneca forged deals with multiple countries to produce more than two billion doses of the investigational Covid-19 vaccine and hopes to secure approval by the end of this year."

I can't find it in this one, but am sure I read that the doses have already gone into production, in the hope that it will be approved, and so the first batches will be ready to go if it is. But, like I say, I can't now find where I read that, so that might just be wishful thinking!

www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-progress/[/quote]
Does his view really count everything he said has been wrong so far

I’m hopeful that the vaccine will work. A family member is working with the imperial vaccine. But can’t tell us anything as it’s confidential. But this family member is v high in the trials. I keep probing, but they won’t reveal.

I trust them to be getting this right. Some very clever people involved.

Russia apparently planning mass vaccination in October . I'm very much pro-vaccination but it would be a no from me!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53621708

Yet another different candidate vaccine ordered by the UK. We now have access to six different vaccine candidates. Surely at least one of them will be at least partially effective.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53772650

Does anyone know - is there any such thing as a 100% effective vaccine?

@DobbyTheHouseElk - ISTR that the Oxford vaccine trial will be unblinded once 30 participants have contracted Covid. Could you even get your relative to tell you how close they are to that number?

@PuzzledObserver they are working with imperial not the oxford trial.

It doesn't look like the UK has bought into the american Moderna one, has it? And that is one of the most promising looking ones. I wonder how they choose which ones to go for - how much is science and how much politics and how much economics

[quote DobbyTheHouseElk]@PuzzledObserver they are working with imperial not the oxford trial.[/quote]
Oh, right. Like you said in your post

I haven’t heard anything in the news regarding the Imperial vaccine. All I know is what they were hoping to achieve in the way the vaccine works. The way it disables the virus cells.

@PuzzledObserver - I could be wrong, but I remember reading that the measles vaccine is one of the most effective vaccines available (just as well cos the R rate of measles is really high) and that it is about 98%.

Actually, just checked, and measles vaccine is approx 96% effective.

@blametheparents thank you.

The lower the efficacy, the more need there will be for vaccinated people to maintain SD, I would think. Whereas if you knew you were definitely immune, you might think you could afford to get as close as you want to as many people as you want.

But, I would think that efficacy and R rate are both important.
In that the R rate for measles is upwards of 12.
The R rate of Covid is approx 2.2.
So - a vaccine for Covid could have a lower efficacy than measles vaccine and still be as useful in stopping the need for SD.
Does that make sense?
I think it does! But my logic could be wrong!

I think the FDA said it would license any vaccine with an efficacy of 50% or above so long as the safety profile was acceptable.

I think even with a vaccine, some social distancing will have to be maintained until they know more about it.

It's not yet known how easily someone who might be immune themselves could still carry the virus on clothes, skin, objects, etc., and the chances of someone touching those is greater with no distancing at all (though obviously not as much as breathing/coughing/sneezing etc., so the distances might not have to be as great!)

Also, it could be a vaccine is not all or nothing - it might be that it mitigates the effects of the virus, but doesn't stop people actually getting it. In that case, they could still pass it on, potentially, to people who don't even have that partial protection. So distancing might well still be needed.

I wonder what the criteria for ending the Phase 3 trials is? Well, not ending, but unblinding to start with. Someone mentioned 30 cases, but I've not seen it written anywhere. I thought I saw November 2 as a possible date as well, but can't find the reference to that either.

I wonder also why the UK hasn't bought any Moderna vaccines, when the initial data for those looked more promising than some of the others, including the Oxford one. I wonder if they will, as they seem to have invested in quite a few others. And I wonder how they will choose who gets which one!

I also hope that individual response to vaccines isn't something consistent, but depends on the type of vaccine, as I had both the measles and the rubella vaccines as a child, and still got both diseases, despite their high efficacy! I don't know why I was one of the people that they didn't work for, but I hope it doesn't mean I will generally respond like that to vaccines...

I think there may be a ban on large gatherings for a while and I can see masks staying for a bit but if I'm honest I think the chances of the vast majority of the population persisting with much SD beyond that are practically nil.

I suspect that as the Moderna vaccine is produced in the US it will be difficult to extract the vaccine in a timely fashion as Trump will just stop all exports until the US has been fully vaccinated.

I think sourcing vaccines produced in different ways using different technologies is sensible. Avoids putting all our eggs in one basket. Isn't Moderna produced in a very similar fashion to imperial? I'm really hoping vaccines is the one bit of this the government get right!

@Sunshinegirl82

I think there may be a ban on large gatherings for a while and I can see masks staying for a bit but if I'm honest I think the chances of the vast majority of the population persisting with much SD beyond that are practically nil.

I suspect that as the Moderna vaccine is produced in the US it will be difficult to extract the vaccine in a timely fashion as Trump will just stop all exports until the US has been fully vaccinated.

I think sourcing vaccines produced in different ways using different technologies is sensible. Avoids putting all our eggs in one basket. Isn't Moderna produced in a very similar fashion to imperial? I'm really hoping vaccines is the one bit of this the government get right!

I agree I think by Feb/March next year no one will SD it would have been a year