Vaccine thread

[Layladylay234]

I know someone on another thread suggest someone start one of these. Considering I've just watched a video with the person leading the vaccine trial,I thought now's as good a time as any. Here's the link to the video,it's really hopeful

Good results for one of the vaccines being developed in China as well

www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)31605-6?utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

@Mybrowneyedgal

Cats I think it sounds really good, the results were what they were hoping for.

Although I'm confused why the UK has ordered 100million doses when the population is 65million? Is it because we may need two doses?

Maybe as they don't know how long immunity will last, or they may be expecting it to be a yearly vaccine like flu.

@Beebityboo

Boris saying he's not confident we will get a vaccine even next year has really worried me .

I think he's very confident, and has been for some time. But even the best case scenario (say starting to vaccinate on October 1st) leaves a gap of 9-10 weeks. We still have to be very careful because the virus can easily get out of control again in that time.

also I think the 100 million doses includes doses from 3 different companies, doesn't it - so it might be that they don't all work euqally effectively, or that some are better than others for certain age groups or other different populations. So it's a good idea to have invested in some of all of them - though how they'll decide which is best, remains to be seen

@Beebityboo

Boris saying he's not confident we will get a vaccine even next year has really worried me .

The thing is, they can't afford to be confident and positive about a vaccine until they are actually poised to administer it. If people are allowed to think that a vaccine is guaranteed then everybody will relax, stop wearing masks, social distancing etc and wait for the vaccine to "rescue" us. The trouble is, even if they're ready to give some doses by October, they still need us to follow the rules until the majority of the population is covered.

A good friend who works in the nhs told me the Oxford vaccine is to be rolled out in November. But it's two parts a month apart. So even with mass urgent vaccinations it'll take a few months to have effect. He also said that even 20% effectiveness would have some impact, as I think that's the bit they're not 100% on yet.

I think that's why bojo is November happy.

And the post above mine is why they're not advertising it in the press! !

If people are allowed to think that a vaccine is guaranteed then everybody will relax, stop wearing masks, social distancing etc and wait for the vaccine to "rescue" us.

This might well be the case, but if I was told I could have a vaccine against Covid in November/January/February then that's a good incentive to do nothing socially until then, as opposed to the no-end-in-sight feeling.

also I think the 100 million doses includes doses from 3 different companies, doesn't it

Nope - 100 million of the Oxford vaccine, 60 million from a 2nd company and 30 million from a third.

I've only read the BBC News report so far (will read the papers later), but key things for me are:-

• 90% of people given one shot developed antibodies.
• only 10 people were given two shots, and they all developed antibodies
• 70% of people had side effects of either fever or headache (worth it, IMO).

If I were organising this trial.... I would give a second shot to the 10% of people who didn't develop antibodies after one shot, and see if they did with two.

I'm hopeful :-)

@annabel85

If people are allowed to think that a vaccine is guaranteed then everybody will relax, stop wearing masks, social distancing etc and wait for the vaccine to "rescue" us.

This might well be the case, but if I was told I could have a vaccine against Covid in November/January/February then that's a good incentive to do nothing socially until then, as opposed to the no-end-in-sight feeling.

You sound very sensible then @annabel85. Unfortunately, as we've already seen, a lot of people are not so sensible and also a lot of people are absolutely desperate for lockdown to end so announcing that a vaccine programme would "definitely" begin in November would result in a huge drop in compliance now. Not everybody, but some.

A huge amount of the media headlines have been designed to make large groups of people do as they're told because actually if we decide to ignore all the rules there's very little they can do to stop us.

@JumpingJackFrost

You're right, but logically if it was the case that a vaccine was being rolled out imminently then it would make even more sense to follow the guidelines until then, as opposed to having to follow them indefinitely with no end in sight.

In reality I think you're giving Boris/this government too much credit to think that they can actually think that laterally. They've played the British common sense card again and again when it clearly doesn't exist.

Hi Folks, here's the phase i/II data for the Oxford vaccine, as promised. Looks as if this is about as well tolerated as the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. The cohort of this trial is also about 10 times as large (although antigenicity data are only from a subset) and has a placebo group, which means we can be more confident in these safety results. No efficacy data was reported here (slightly disappointingly)
www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)31604-4

Also of note: not strictly a vaccine, but a useful finding nonetheless for a novel inhaled anti-inflammatory agent, which apparently provided a 79% reduction in the risk of death or requiring mechanical ventilation compared with placebo. Of note, this is only a press release, and i've not seen the full study report, so can't comment on how robust these data are. Looks promising though. I don't know if NICE will approve based on this evidence alone.
www.pharmatimes.com/news/synairgens_sng001_shows_strong_promise_in_covid-19_trial_1345119

Speculate with me....

Let’s guess that the vaccine starts being rolled out to health and social care workers in November, and then to the general population in the New Year.... with everyone who wants the vaccine having had it by Easter.

At what point do you think social distancing rules would be removed?

My hunch is that it would be guided by the rate of new infections and efficacy of contact tracing. Maybe they would remove restrictions in any area which hasn’t seen a new case for 3 weeks, but be ready to reimpose them if there is evidence of community spread.

[quote TheWhalrus]Also of note: not strictly a vaccine, but a useful finding nonetheless for a novel inhaled anti-inflammatory agent, which apparently provided a 79% reduction in the risk of death or requiring mechanical ventilation compared with placebo. Of note, this is only a press release, and i've not seen the full study report, so can't comment on how robust these data are. Looks promising though. I don't know if NICE will approve based on this evidence alone.
www.pharmatimes.com/news/synairgens_sng001_shows_strong_promise_in_covid-19_trial_1345119[/quote]
I was coming on to say this too!

This treatment has been a bit of a bridesmaid in the news today! How lovely to have two pieces of very promising news in one day!

The news from the Oxford team really feels like the beginning of the end of this awful pandemic, to me. I know we mustn't get overhopeful, and we mustn't get complacement, because the vaccine(s) need further trials and will take time to be produced on a large scale, but it does give a real glimmer of hope. My elderly MIL will be relieved, she has really struggled with being in lockdown for weeks and has been too frightened to venture out for anything other than essential visits to her GP.

I hope that people will stick with social distancing and those that can wear masks in shops etc will do so - this isn't the time to be careless and cause a nasty spike so close to the end of this awful pandemic. My face gets a bit hot and sweaty wearing masks, but the hope that we could have an effective vaccine by the year's end is making me feel much brighter about that minor irritation. Come on Oxford!!!

@Defenbaker I really hope so 🤞🤞
We could do with a timeframe for this all to calm down now.

I read today that they have changed the timeline to the end of the year. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/20/coronavirus-vaccine-could-ready-end-year-50000-people-can-take/amp/

I was really hoping this would all be starting to be over in September/October as previously talked about.

This gives me SO much hope !!!!! And there are so many people suffering mental health etc ... I just want my parents to have the vaccine and I can relax a bit x

That's a bit disappointing NLN20 although I've been psychologically prepared for it to be slightly later than was originally hoped; even though that might still be optimistic! Somehow I feel if we get the green light before Christmas that would be amazing and make such a difference if we knew it was going to start to be deployed by new year. It would be absolutely extraordinary in the history of vaccine development!

Together with the beta interferon treatment news today, and maybe other treatments etc being available, how great would that be?

In terms of the timescale, I am just watching Adrian Hill doing an interview on CNN where he is saying that they are hoping to get results by September or October....

Let’s guess that the vaccine starts being rolled out to health and social care workers in November, and then to the general population in the New Year.... with everyone who wants the vaccine having had it by Easter.

When I asked my Gp friend for clarification as to what Nov meant, he said it would be physically with gps to begin vaccinations for over 50 and clinically vulnerable in November. Obviously there's anywhere between Nov 1st and Nov 30th, but he was clear that this was the start of the rolling out.

Jan and Feb would be the worry regarding hospitals for all flu plus Covid so targeting those most at risk would be the priority before that date.

As long as all goes to plan.

On another note, my mate knows the journalist who wrote that telegraph article and I know her dad.

There's going to be an expanded flu jab campaign this year - sounds like it will be offered to more groups (not yet specified) and hopes are that uptake will be high.

Last thing we need right now is a bad season for flu!

I'm continuing to keep everything crossed for a Oxford. Ive been following them from the start really closely and it has all seemed so positive all the way through, let's hope that carries on.

Sarah Gilbert seems like a fascinating person, she had triplets a year before she became a university lecturer!

@Dinodana1 I recognise a fellow parent of a dinosaur lover, I've learnt a lot from Dana!