Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Interesting change in weekly demographics of cases in Germany from the RKI:

"The depiction of notified COVID-19 cases in Germany according to age groups and reporting week,
shows a continuous and distinct relative decrease among the over 80 year olds since reporting week 17.

In comparison, the proportion of cases in the younger age groups between 0-29 years of age is increasing."

Care home & hospital infection control was set up v early but was tightened as soon as the scale of the risk there became apparent

From week 19, schools and small non-essential shop were reopened
week 21 all other shops and gyms
week 22 outdoor restaurants, meeting more people

Age distribution has probably lowered because of more cases in several slaughterhouses, and a few logistics centres (DPD etc)
but these were all working throughout lockdown, so arose from other community infection

The younger demographic lower the death rate of confirmed cases of course as well as the % in ICU

Lower death rate is not due to hospital capacity

• even at the peak when over 30,000 were admitted , there was massive spare capacity and home visits to check on the less seriously ill

It's age and presumably to some extent improved knowledge for treatment protocols and infection control
Also, lower infection rate could mean a lower dose of virus - from only 1 instead of several people.

==> Have we seen a similar change in age demographics of new cases in the UK ?
Or will this happen as measures are relaxed more ?

Or will this happen as measures are relaxed more ?

^ I think that’s what we’ll see & subsequent fall in CFR. They are seeing it already in Portugal & Florida.

Thanks so much for the explanation @ShootsFruitAndLeaves. It's a bit confusing the way it was presented on Newsnight, and I've checked back on twitter. The journalist (Lewis Goodall) was quoting deaths of 56,732 from week 11 to now, which he has stated to be 13.6% of the care home population, when they would normally expect around 6% to die in the same period.

@BigChocFrenzy do you think that more people in that age group are actually being infected than before or rather just that more of the cases are being picked up?

Juo having read about hospitalised covid survivors in the US being presented with bills for hundreds of thousands of dollars

To be clear, these bills are notional. They are presented to the patient, before the insurer pays a much lower amount.

There are various provisions in the US for financial aid specifically for covid-19 treatment.

Nobody has been asked to actually pay such a bill

This is an interesting read comparing the different approaches and outcomes between the UK and Germany @BigChocFrenzy
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/24/germany-coronavirus-britain-health-spending-test-trace

"Nobody has been asked to actually pay such a bill"

==> Reports are that some have been asked to pay reduced - but still v high bills

That can be those without insurance, or those who find they have high copays and are being harassed for payment while still convalescing and maybe jobless
e.g.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-patients-medical-bills-hospitals-doctors-insurance-2020-5?r=DE&IR=T

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/16/coronavirus-hospital-bill-healthcare-america

www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/got-coronavirus-you-may-get-surprise-medical-bill-too-n1187966

www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-health-care-costs-medical-treatment/

Marceline Testing here has switched to concentrate on mass testing around new clusters,
to help squash them asap
but no analysis / evidence afaik how this would affect age demograohics of positive test results

You'd expect to see more younger people diagnosed when there's more testing. Because when testing was restricted it was offered to hospital patients, who are predominantly older. So these older, sicker patients formed a larger proportion of cases.

The care home epidemic appears to have run slightly separately from the one in the general population (starting later - no ski trips for them - and peaking later, as they were unable to lock down effectively like private households did) But it seems unlikely to me that the spread in the general population could be just in one age group and not others, as there's too much interaction between age groups in workplaces, families etc. So I suspect increased diagnosis of young people is the reason for the increase.

The actual number of tests in Germany has been somewhat lower for several weeks than the mass testing during the peak weeks of the crisis.

However as said, the strategy switched to mass testing after the 1st wave dropped right down and lockdown measures removed in stages.

Strategy would presumably switch again and labs would be redirected to max testing capacity if a mass 2nd wave appears later

Personally, I expect several small ripples, not a wave
but it could all go wrong if too many people become blase

I'm off for my Rhine walk and then gym, so here is the

new thread 11:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3948518-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-11?watched=1

The testing centre near me has never had more than a few people at a time
even hospital tests give up to 29% false negatives
home testing will be even less accurate

hopefully the new saliva test can be rolled out PDQ and then we might get a truer picture

Another BBC one here. I hope you don't mind if I ask your thoughts again

It seems more cases in UK but also more testing. I wondered about the impact of this; could it be we are picking up more cases due to more testing than the other European countries, perhaps

I read today there are 12 'active outbreaks' in Spain at present.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53157269

Sorry will post on the new thread