Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

There was another comment somewhere about hospitals being empty in relation to deaths - I dont even know what that was supposed to mean but to quote from someone working in one - the virus has not gone away, it's just that there is space now for you in ICU. Although since posting that the ICUs are filling up again, not with Covid cases but with normal NHS work. Someone without an agenda would simply have said that deaths in hospital were now nearly back to the seasonal norm.

but they aren't though. They are below the quietest week of the year, and at a minimum 10% below average for this time of year.

Deaths at home are MASSIVELY above seasonal average, and above worst-week-of-the-year average.

Hospital deaths were above normal January averages for weeks 14-17, only, and are now below the average for any week (to week 24 - we are now in week 26)

I don't know why you are determined that facts have agendas, or on behalf of what/whom.

It's quite clear that deaths have been shifted out of NHS hospitals to alternative venues. This was inevitable at the peak, because the number of deaths were so large.

In particular, if we consider 'normal winter excess mortality' as something that afflicts the old, and we look at weeks 33-36 as a quiet time of year, then there are around 4100 weekly deaths occurring in hospital, 1950 in care homes, and 2200 at home.

When excess winter mortality occurs, the extra deaths go:

+2200 in hospitals
+950 in care homes
+600 in home
i.e. around 60% of the excess death burden occurs in hospitals, presumably in many cases from care home residents.

What we have now is

-500 in hospitals (compared to annual minimum)
+200 in care homes
+950 at home

And at the peak we had (vs. normal January peak):
+3500 hospital
+2000 at home
+4000 care home (and +800 more the following week)

It's understandable that at the peak there were large numbers of people in care homes dying who would normally move into hospital, and indeed whereas there is a seasonal increase of up to 60% versus minimum in care homes, 30% at home, and 50% in hospitals, we had care home deaths at 4x seasonal minimums, hospital deaths up 128%, and deaths at home up by around 120%.

but I am not clear why the 'at home' mortality remains so very high now.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/11622fiveyearaverageweeklydeathsbyplaceofdeathenglandandwalesdeathsoccurringbetween2015and2019

sleep Numbers were down the first couple of weeks, but about back to normal now
I'm almost 64, but I'm healthy BMI and fit, very few cases in my state - and I'm a gym rat, so I was in from day 1.
if I catch the bugger I'll post here and 'fess up !

Restaurants took a while but now the outdoor tables at least are full in this beautiful weather

Dino We're pretty good at SD most of the time,
but I suspect with all the panting in spin and advanced lifting that 1.5m is not enough if community infection rises significantly.

I'm sure if cases rose significantly, then gyms would be one of the first things to be closed, like they were one of the last to open

Listening gyms here rarely have pools, only the health club type, too posh for me
If we get another 40C heatwave, I'll join the local teens in the Rhine

" I am not clear why the 'at home' mortality remains so very high now."

This is presumably the elderly at home - most people never go into care homes, (isn't it only about 1 in 4 go) -

So putting off 999 / 111 calls to a later date, because of fear of going to hospital and becoming infected ?

It's a bit early to see significant extra deaths because of cancelled cancer treatments, general operations or cancelled checkups

Quick search showed up just one outbreak related to exercise

No, it was multiple outbreaks. The risk was specifically isolated to Zumba and other high-intensity confined indoor exercise. Pilates and yoga did not transmit the virus.

The instructors infected the gym users at a rate of 26% of class goers, but the small classes (5 people) were not infected - it was the busy, full (22 people) classes that got infected.

I imagine they will allow gyms to re-open without such classes and with more cleaning of machines etc.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-0633_article

Maybe some deaths because some elderly won't have had visitors for months,
to check up on them ?

Has there been an earlier ONS breakdown for age & causes of deaths at home ?

This is presumably the elderly at home - most people never go into care homes, (isn't it only about 1 in 4 go) -

could be. Neither of my grandmothers wanted to die in hospital, though one did (following a fall), and the other in her care home.

Death is inevitable, maybe not today but some time, and for people who are realistically facing that 'real soon now', they may prefer to do it at home, rather than in some hospital with more unpleasant conditions than usual.

Oh, here there was no restriction on type of gym classes, just limited numbers for SD

Most of our classes are pretty energetic, especially my favourites - spin, pump, advanced barbell lifting
and the timetable would be pretty bare without them.

I do 7 classes per week .... I hope I never have anything to report from there !

We have 14 people per class now - it was 12 up to 2 weeks ago, when the regulations were relaxed further
and also then permitted the showers (communal) and sauna to open

No limits on people outside the training rooms, but the main body of the gym has never been too crowded

Some people are hoping for another 40C summer - hoping that may destroy the remaining virus
Even if it did, which is debatable, the winter skiers would bring it back

FT have just updated their excess mortality tracker

US at 122k - but thought to be a big lag in stats, so this may rise comsiderably
UK 66k
France 25k
Germany 9k
Norway, Israel - no excess deaths
Denmark almost none

171. Lowest Tuesday in 13 weeks

Yesterdays figure was - 42647 todays figure is 42927 = 280 not the 171 proclaimed.

I know they have done this before but again 109 amiss somewhere with no explanation, just slipped in on the quiet.

It usually is because of adjusting for deaths on previous days not yet counted,
but doing it so soon, for yesterday, is not a good look

I get there is adjustments etc, and I know it's been posted about before but it is still wrong to sneak those numbers in just like that.

We had those 22 consecutive days on which deaths exceeded 1,000
but this was before care home deaths were included, so the official figure never reached 1,000

However, if we look back at the stats now, the numbers have been updated,
so we can see those 22 days and the peak of 1,445 deaths on 8 April

Some people may only be aware of the official figures on the day and hence may never realise the real numbers at peak

The discrepancy between official figures for deaths on the day and the updated numbers are striking

• but may be unavoidable because of how data is reported and collated ?

However, we need to bear this in mind when we receive the official figure each day.

Should be much closer to reality since about 29 April, when care home deaths were included

Yes @BigChocFrenzy i am the 'some people' thank you for explaining

From the FT graphs

UK deaths - all 12 regions had significant excess mortality

• +52% in England
• +41% in Scotland
• +34% in Wales
• +34% in N. Ireland

Whereas some regions of Italy and Spain had none

The Uk infections seem spread over the whole country to at least some extent - because of smaller geographical area or - imo - mainly because more time to spread before lockdown ?

FT chart of excess deaths / million

• Parts of S America are suffering badly atm, so likely to increase further there

know they have done this before but again 109 amiss somewhere with no explanation, just slipped in on the quiet.

They did specifically mention the extra numbers during the briefing and it was mentioned on a slide and commented on on the news. So not really on the quiet.

The extra 109 is due to "improvements in how covid-19 deaths are processed" and relate to deaths in april, may and june apparently. There is an note under the dhsc tweet with the figures which is how they usually do it when they have a historic correction but it doesn't seem to get commented on in the press conferences etc so it does like they are sneaking them in which isn't the best optics (esp yesterday).

Not found what these improvements are yet, if I get chance today I'll dig. Previously they've been including non hospital deaths and including deaths with a pillar 2 test. There is a tweet in reply to the dhsc one that has the actual day of death for these 109 if you are interested. There are some useful info on those threads usually with people doing rolling averages and pulling out how the figures are complied (and some absolute nonsense as well)

Ok so I missed it getting commented on in the press conference yesterday , watched that one as well

Was anyone watching Newsnight last night? They were talking about the excess deaths figures and in relation to care homes I'm sure they said that 13% of the care home population had died from Covid. Can this be right? I must admit I wasn't fully concentrating (very late for me!) but can this be correct? Given that I thought it had 'only' been present in 40% of care homes, that seems an extraordinarily high figure.
Apologies if this has been covered previously and I've missed it!

Was anyone watching Newsnight last night? They were talking about the excess deaths figures and in relation to care homes I'm sure they said that 13% of the care home population had died from Covid. Can this be right? I must admit I wasn't fully concentrating (very late for me!) but can this be correct? Given that I thought it had 'only' been present in 40% of care homes, that seems an extraordinarily high figure.

Well, we expect all of the care home population to die about every 26 months, so 13% in 3 months isn't as huge as it sounds.

There aren't proper statistics afaict for death by normal residence (care home vs. not), but we do have stats for people dying in care homes.

However it's certain that some people who would normally die in hospital are dying instead in their care home. So some caution needed.

Anyway official stats for covid-19 deaths in care homes is 14,513. And population AIR is around 300k. So that's nowhere near 13%

But you are conflating two things - 'excess deaths' and 'the care home that population that has died from covid-19'.

For weeks 12-24, we had 53,405 deaths in care homes in England & Wales. Meanwhile the normal expected weekly deaths in care homes are 26,982. So that's 26,423 excess.

Which is also not 13%, it's just below 9%.

We are now in Week 26, but deaths have slowed down to a trickle, so excess deaths will be around 9% of population.

BUT, unless the ONS publishes statistics by 'normal place of residence' and compares this with the 5-year-average [it doesn't publish such statistics], we won't be able to identify the extent to which the real excess is actually lower than 9%, given that some deaths that normally would occur in hospitals have instead occurred in care homes.

It won't be too big an effect, but it does mean the numbers are lower, not higher.

Normally we get around 5700 excess deaths in care homes in the worst 6 weeks in winter (the 6 after Christmas) compared to the best 6 weeks of summer, but there are also 11,300 extra deaths in hospitals, many of which will be of care home residents [sorry no statistics here]

Apologies if anyone has already linked to this.
Study of outcomes in New York
www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1966
"impairment of oxygen on admission and markers of inflammation were most strongly associated with critical illness and mortality. Outcomes seem to be improving over time, potentially suggesting improvements in care."
Be interesting to compare with countries where patients get medical care earlier in the infection. I suspect the UK is similar to the US in that most people are left to struggle at home until very ill before being admitted.

Juo having read about hospitalised covid survivors in the US being presented with bills for hundreds of thousands of dollars, I expect That for many, there is also a reluctance to go to hospital until absolutely necessary there as well.