Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

So we need to check the figures for each age group as a % of that age group in the UK population
(which in my head was what I thought was being done)
and look then for anomalies, especially between S Asian and black minorities

There was also the statistic that - once in ICU - S Asians were about 20% more likely to die there than people of other ethnicities

I can't see a demographic reason for this to be so much higher than e.g. for black minorities.

People of S Asian origin having to be hospitalised at a younger age than people of other ethnicities indicates something particular to S Asians
just as having a younger average age of death from COVID does

No, definitely not!

If you invited 1 million Atlantean migrant workers all aged 20-30 to the UK last year, covid-19 broke out, and 1 of them died, then the average age at death for people of Atlantean ethnicity would necessarily be between 20 and 30. This would be 50+ years younger than the average age at death for white British people, but the average age at death or hospitalisation would tell you nothing about the relative risk.

It is a necessary function of a population being younger that those hospitalised or dying within that population will be on average younger.

We need to be careful to use comparable statistics, e.g., 'age-standardized hospitalisation rate'.

Here it would be necessary to divide the number hospitalised per age group by the number in each age group of the underlying population.

'age-standardized hospitalisation rate'

Yes, that's required before we can compare anything, as age is so dominant

That's what was in my head .... but unfortunately not in the ICNARC tables !

There was also the statistic that - once in ICU - S Asians were about 20% more likely to die there than people of other ethnicities

I can't see a demographic reason for this to be so much higher than e.g. for black minorities.

Part of this was identified in the study as excess South Asian diabetes rates. That still leaves 14% not identified.

However since comorbidities differ substantially by ethnicity there could be other reasons.

I don't think that 14% is a particularly high figure, if it can be isolated to ethnicity rather than other comorbidities, compared to identified risk factors such as diabates, age or sex.

Has anyone seen today's figures for UK?

@BruceAndNosh

Has anyone seen today's figures for UK?

171. Lowest Tuesday in 13 weeks.

oh and 874 positive tests.

171 deaths, 874 new cases.

Hospitals continue to be empty in terms of people dying.

Very small decrease in deaths at home compared to same time last week (-42), hospital down 306, care home down 186.

Weekly deaths now essentially trivially above normal, and covid-19 is 'over' in the sense of being something that is killing significant numbers of people.

Continues to be with us in fear of a re-escalation, but no longer a serious cause of mortality.

This is interesting.

Oh, impossible to read. Will link the tweet.

twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1275455497441689605/photo/1

just link the source

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/892043/S0484_Transmission_of_SARS-CoV-2_and_Mitigating_Measures.pdf

much more useful than a picture on twitter.

Executive summary
• Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is most strongly associated with close and prolonged contact in
indoor environments. The highest risks of transmission are in crowded spaces over extended
periods (high confidence

"There is weak evidence that aerosol transmission may play a role under some conditions
such as in poorly ventilated crowded environments. T"

"Where it is necessary for people to be closer than 2m face-to-face for a prolonged period or
where someone has multiple frequent interactions with others at shorter distance,
additional measures will be required to disrupt close-range transmission. In most cases this
is likely to be based on limiting duration of contact, using face coverings and orientation of
people. "

"The highest risk for close-range transmission is when someone is face-to-face with an
infectious person at a distance of 2m or less for a prolonged period. The risk increases with
the amount of time spent in close proximity to the infectious person and with the reduction
of distance. A calculation based on [3] suggests risk at 2m face-to-face is around 10 times
lower than the risk at 1m. A new meta-analysis paper of reported transmission suggests that
the risk of transmission at 2m separation is approximately half that at 1m, although this does
not consider the orientation or the mode of transmission [4]. When people are side-to-side
or behind one another risk is via aerosols and so is determined by the influence of
ventilation; at 1m the exposure risks would be similar to 2m when face-to-face in an indoor
environment

Virus is not likely to survive for long
periods of time on outdoor surfaces in sunlight, but may survive for more than 24 hours in
indoor environments.

Risk of aerosol transmission is highest when people share poorly ventilated spaces where
the viral aerosols can build up rather than being diluted and removed by the ventilation. Risk
increases with time spent in the same shared air

Aerosol transmission risk is considered to be very low outdoors due to high
dilution of virus carrying aerosols and UV inactivation of the virus

Evidence that transmission is predominantly occurring in indoor spaces where people are in
close proximity continues to grow [7].

Yes Sir, will link properly Sir.

As far as I can see, these are the best things:

Reduce time in an environment
Change to work in a cohort
Technology rather than face to face
Maintain 2m distance
Lower density of occupants

Other good things:

Surface cleaning in general
New handwash stations
Face shields or goggles
No sharing of equipment

Useless:

Propping open doors to increase airflow.

Considering schools have been told they don't need to do any of the first list, don't need to or can't have money to do any of the second list, and have actively been told that the third list is what they definitely need to do, I'm unsurprised about teaching unions getting on their high horse.

Damn. I was genuinely relying on opening the door in my windowless classroom.

I'm still puzzled why we don't have outbreaks yet in gyms, nearly 6 weeks on since reopening here.
Indoors, people panting & gasping in a closed room together for 60 minutes

Most gyms I've belonged to over the decades have had a good few retired people in the gentler classes
(admittedly I've never been in the fashionable upmarket health club type gyms)

My Friday flexibility class is typical of the less energetic ones - half the class of 14 are 60-75

www.texastribune.org/2020/06/22/texas-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-austin-houston-dallas/
Includes this worrying graph of hospitalisations which I hope you can read from a screenshot

Bigchoc from a personal POV I won’t be rushing back to a gym... aren’t numbers massively down?

"And as per the link in my previous post there is no correlation between catching covid-19 and Vitamin D levels. "

One study said that - and as I pointed out they control for factors known to related to vitamin D levels. In controlling for those factors you are already adjusting out differences in level. The intervention studies are mostly aimed at vitamin D as a treatment rather then prevention but they will hopefully provide an answer before winter. Meanwhile enjoy the sunshine when you can.

There was another comment somewhere about hospitals being empty in relation to deaths - I dont even know what that was supposed to mean but to quote from someone working in one - the virus has not gone away, it's just that there is space now for you in ICU. Although since posting that the ICUs are filling up again, not with Covid cases but with normal NHS work. Someone without an agenda would simply have said that deaths in hospital were now nearly back to the seasonal norm.

There is some pretty conflicting evidence around about whether children get or transmit the virus at the same levels as adults. They are less likely to be recorded as infected when someone in the household gets the virus. If I was a teacher I'd want temperature checks at the door and since the virus probably enters first through the nose I'd want a mask or face shield, I hope teachers are allowed to wear them.

All the research on surfaces points to that rarely being a source of transmission. If I was a teacher I'd probably have my own cleaning spray for any metal door handles. I'd also probably stay away from adult colleagues as much as possible.

The lack of gym outbreaks is wierd.

Also on gyms..(I’m pondering!) maybe there’s a high proportion of previously infected people back there now because they were keen gym people before lockdown and it could have been prevalent? 🤷‍♀️

Gyms :
Johnson understands pubs
he does not understand gyms
ditto most of the cabinet

so its safe to sit in a pub garden with another 100 drunk people
but not
swim in a chlorinated pool

Earlier, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said gyms are staying shut “because of the level of activity that goes on, the number of surfaces that are touched, there’s a far greater risk of infection than one where people are stationary and breathing less hard and touching fewer surfaces”.

I imagine they spread infection very well, but to often asymptomatic people. I note a large proportion of the Pakistan cricket squad is asymptomatically positive

Quick search showed up just one outbreak related to exercise

www.businessinsider.com/dance-fitness-class-linked-to-outbreak-coronavirus-in-south-korea-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

www.texastribune.org/2020/06/22/texas-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-austin-houston-dallas/
Includes this worrying graph of hospitalisations which I hope you can read from a screenshot

Thank you for that - that is a HUGE increase and very very worrying.

Gyms... this is massive stereotyping but could people who frequent gyms also be very aware of their health and so by proxy, be very good as SD generally?

Thanks for that transmission info Ohthe. Ventilation in my classroom is an issue I've already raised.

It's also the physical handling of some pupils with Sen that's a concern for some teaching staff.

There's zero SD in bubbles at schools too, it's near impossible with children who want to play.