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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

966 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2020 19:35

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
torydeathdrug · 20/06/2020 09:49

It was working last night - had a map of positives from their swabbing & cases in UK & regions

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
whatsnext2 · 20/06/2020 09:58

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves
"Lots of people are stupid and impressionable and assent to stupid fake shit without fact checking. This is universal and it applies as much to supporting Black Lives Matter (which wants to defund the UK police, smash capitalism, etc., which is fine if you agree with that, but most people don't), as it does to agreeing to idiotic conspiracy theories when presented with them"

As you have often told others, please let's stick to the data, and not give your own 'batshot crazy' ideas airtime either.

I'm getting worried about the agenda here, there have been innumerable studies highlighting the risk to BAME and yet the risk is constantly dismissed on this thread.

Edujaded · 20/06/2020 10:17

'More or less' on radio four was excellent this week, as always. Some very insightful analysis by an actuary about the excess deaths and relative risk of death according to age groups. Plus, they announced they are extending the current series by a few more episodes.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 20/06/2020 10:39

More Or Less is very much needed at the moment. Cometh the hour, cometh the Radio 4 programme.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 10:48

The Institute & Faculty of Actuaries has a Continuous Mortality Investigation :

www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality-monitor-Week-23-2020-v01-2020-06-16.pdf

There have been around 63,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 5 June 2020
than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

At this stage of the pandemic, we prefer to focus on registered rather than estimated ‘excess’ deaths figures
as estimates of ‘excess’ deaths could now be materially affected by non-COVID sources of variance.

There were 4% more deaths registered in England & Wales in week 23 of 2020
than if standardised mortality rates had been the same as week 23 of 2019.

The difference was 17% in week 22 and 18% in week 21.
....
Full details of the methods used for results based on the ONS data are included in Working Paper 111.
Our analysis is based on Standardised Mortality Rates (SMRs).
These adjust the provisional weekly deaths data published by the ONS to allow for changes in the age and gender distribution of the population over time.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
OP posts:
ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 20/06/2020 11:41

As you have often told others, please let's stick to the data, and not give your own 'batshot crazy' ideas airtime either.

My post included data. Yours had none. I'm not going to apologise for observing that people are generally impressionable and easily led by superficially appealing ideas.

I'm getting worried about the agenda here, there have been innumerable studies highlighting the risk to BAME and yet the risk is constantly dismissed on this thread.

There is no 'agenda here', since this is a data-driven thread on a parenting website it doesn't have an agenda per se. That doesn't mean nobody posting has an agenda, including me or you, but in general we can all post our opinions here providing they have supporting data.

That's the whole point of this. Not that 'nobody is allowed to have an opinion', but that we should have opinions that are informed by facts. The same facts, or a different selection of them, may inform completely opposite opinions, and we are likely to selectively ignore or amplify those facts that confirm our own, but that's unavoidable. Let's not pretend that science is apolitical, as it never has been.

Returning to the topic of data after your derail, here's the latest ONS study on ethnicity, religion, disability & covid-19 deaths:

www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19relatedmortalitybyreligionethnicityanddisabilityenglandandwales2march2020to15may2020

It shows the (93.6% white-identifying) Jewish males as having been most likely to die of all religious people.

After adjusting for "population density, region, rural and urban classification, area deprivation, household composition, socio-economic position, highest qualification held, household tenure, household exposure, and self-reported health and disability"

the excess risk was 95% for Jewish males, 42% for Muslim males, 16% for Sikh males, 36% for Hindu males and small are negative for other reigious groups.

White Jews were slightly more likely to die than non-white Jews, though this might not be statistically significant.

It's not possible to distinguish Islam, Sikhism and Hinduism from their corresponding most common ethnic groups, not least because more than 90% of British Bangladeshis/Pakistanis identify as Muslim.

I pointed out that the BBC was pushing the 'ethnicity' theory hard while ignoring religion in this previous thread

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/a3905548-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-8?msgid=96710071#96710071

I am not sure what it says about us if we are prepared to believe that the cultural and/or religious practices of Jews put them at risk, not some inherent theory about 'Jews as a race', yet at the same time we want to insist that 'ethnicity' is inherently a risk factor for non-white people.

I'm not really sure where you are going with the 'risk to BAME' people thing. Do you mean that 'BAME people' have some inherent genetic defect that makes them more likely to die from covid-19? It's fact that for example Bangladeshi males are many times more likely than white males to work as a taxi/minicab driver. But that doesn't mean a Bangladeshi taxi driver is more likely to die from his job than a white taxi driver.

In total the ONS study considers 37,956 deaths, of which 88.6% were white, as against 86.4% of the underlying population. 31,000 of the deaths were old (65+) and white .

The ONS found that when adjusting for region, population density, area deprivation, household composition, socio-economic position, highest qualification held, household tenure, multigenerational household flags and occupation indicators, that there was no statistically significant excess risk for Pakistani & Bangladeshi women, a small excess for Indian women (14% ±12%), and a larger risk for black women (41% ±13%).

For males there was around a 50% excess risk for South Asian men, and a 103% excess risk for black men.

The ONS conclude:

"We find that differences across ethnic groups alter across age groups. The differences in mortality risk are larger for younger (people aged under 70 years) than older people"

"This could be partly explained by the greater likelihood of this population being economically active and in employment; although we account for some measures of occupational exposure, an imbalance across ethnic groups in likelihood to be working in at-risk occupations, such as front-facing occupations, could be a determining factor yet to be explored in detail with additional data sources."

also

"we have found evidence that the ethnic differences are more pronounced among the groups that are at lower risk of dying of COVID-19. "

and

"We found that the differences across ethnic groups were more pronounced among those who were not key workers. "

and

"that differences in the risk of death between ethnic minority groups and the White population tend to be larger among non-deprived households and those with a degree. "

i.e. poor white people are relatively closer to poor BAME people in terms of risk, while richer BAME people are more at risk than richer white people, and the excess risk for BAME people is much smaller for older people (who are at highest risk).

It seems that younger South Asian men & black people generally are more likely to have died than younger white people, but young people in general are at low risk. The overwhelming risk is to old people, who are more likely to be white than the population as a whole. Exactly why Jewish men, younger South Asian men, and black people are more likely to have died is not clear.

But we still know with complete certainty that age is an inherent (biological) risk factor, while religion cannot possibly be, yet it also influences the likelihood someone has died.

It seems likely that different employment, diet, health, social practices etc. will have given different groups different risks of catching and then recovering from covid-19.

For example, it could be that Jewish men having a large excess risk of dying from covid-19 because they are more likely to have caught it. But we don't have data on that. We do know in general that men and women are equally likely to have covid-19. And then women are less likely to die from it. But this infection risk doesn't necessarily apply to sub-populations .

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
marcus242628 · 20/06/2020 12:10

Surely it is vitamin D deficiency as people from BAME communities need far more vitamin D than white people living in UK. Nearly all white people in UK will be deficient by March as reserves cant last more than 3 months and you cant make it from sunlight in UK over the winter (unless they supplement or holiday abroad in winter). BAME community will obviously be far more deficient by March in UK.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 12:14

Looking at German cases over the last several weeks since relaation ...

churches / places of worship stand out as risks

Maybe the biggest avoidable risk for the retired and that is increasingly being noted by people here,
see Berliner Spectator front page with giant Coronavirus ball hanging from the church roof

People would be in places of worship about 1.5 hours per week,
compared to 40 hours per week for slaughterhouses,
but the number of outbreaks listed seems similar

Far more people work in a meat plant than are in the average church congregation and they would be of working age, no pensioners

Hence the number of cases would be much higher, but maybe not the number of deaths

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 12:23

Sex

Looking at German death rates, although we've been saying COVID deaths are about 2:1 male:female,

the comparative risk for males is even higher when we compensate for the much higher % of women in the oldest age groups.

The population sex imbalance becomes significant after about age 70, as women increasingly survive longer

but look at the ID deaths male:female in the middle age group, which is getting near 3:1

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 12:24

"but look at the ID ratio deaths male:female"

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 12:28

btw, in a country of 83 million, 414 women dying under age 60 - and the vast majority of teachers are women -

indicates why Merkel got such wide agreement a few days ago to resume ft schools after the vacation

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 12:33

Oops bad TYPO , I was multitasking total deaths for another post: Blush

in a country of 83 million, 112 women dying under age 60

OP posts:
torydeathdrug · 20/06/2020 12:33

More Or Less is very much needed at the moment

^ absolutely, should be made compulsory listening, not least to force people to think rather than just react.

I really like Tim Harford, he recently wrote a really measured piece about schools www.ft.com/content/1de6a2c7-f91f-4bfc-ae35-85425b8cc152

BigChocFrenzy · 20/06/2020 12:42

Possibly even without lockdown, the risk of COVID to children would not justify closing schools even at peak epidemic
... if we only consider children

Very early on, there was enough evidence about risks for the concern to be about risks to staff and household members of staff & students
and then also of them spreading infection to other adults.

However, those risks even for the UK have been v low for some weeks now for those of working age.

The % who live with someone retired are sufficiently small that they could be supported separately,
while the vast majority of children are allowed to attend school.

There are v few conditions that would give a younger person the same risk as someone > 65
and they must also be a v tiny % of the population

All this - and ft schools - is conditional on the % infected in the community remaining low

OP posts:
alreadytaken · 20/06/2020 14:47

Good scientists are aware of the risk of bias and do their best to avoid it. Hence the ONS statistics attempt to be impartial - but liars use statistics.

The ONS study on death and ethnicity is here www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwales/latest

and points to a higher risk in black people that cannot be explained by any of the data they had available. That data would not have included vitamin D status and would have been out of date. I'll see if I can find any data on vitamin Dstatus by ethnicity - it would be logical to expect it to be lower in dark skinned people in Britain but I know some take supplements, I dont know if it's a higher number than lighter skinned people.

There is a lot of evidence on the significant numbers of people with other conditions, again I'll see if I can find data on the numbers, rather than making assumptions.

It is very clear that some people on this thread have agendas.

alreadytaken · 20/06/2020 14:56

Shielded patients 0-19 93,902 and 19-64 1,173, 652. If there is a more detailed breakdown I havent found it.

The numbers are likely to reduce though.

alreadytaken · 20/06/2020 15:32

From the BDA - vitamin D deficiency is common in the uk at the time when the epidemic hit the uk "The NDNS collects data throughout the year, and so seasonal effects can be examined. For all age / sex groups, average 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) were lowest in January to March, with 19% of children aged 4 to 10 years, 37% aged 11 to 18 years and 29% of adults had 25-OHD below the deficiency threshold. "

I cant easily find the NDNS data quickly but this abstract suggests deficiency is much more common in BAME than white people europepmc.org/article/med/27637325 (50% v 20%)

One study suggested vitamin D was not relevant to Covid-19 but since it is probably also associated with socio economic status it would be hard to separate the effect.

CallmeAngelina · 20/06/2020 16:34

How do you know if you have a vitamin deficiency? I would hazard a guess I'm OK for Vit D as I take daily supplements (multi-vitamins) and I have quite a tan at the moment after all the gorgeous weather. But how does one actually know?

RhubarbJelly · 20/06/2020 16:41

A blood test shows whether you are deficient.

Beccatheboo · 20/06/2020 17:22

Sorry if this isn’t the best place but started a thread & no one has replied so just in case...

Could early cases of Covid 19 have been diagnosed as ‘influenza A unknown type’? Both are, I believe, RNA viruses.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891589/National_influenza_report_11_June_2020_week_24.pdf The graph at the top shows a peak of influenza in the UK from weeks 48 (2019) to about week 5 (2020). Looking at the next document (a report about week 48) shows 19 care home outbreaks positive for influenza A ‘unknown subtype’ and 16 schools from an outbreak of 108 schools positive for influenza A ‘unknown subtype’. www.gov.uk/government/publications/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season/national-flu-report-summary-5-december-2019-week-49

This next document shows over half of the hospitalised patients aged 15-44 suffering from influenza A ‘unknown type’ and over half of the hospitalised patients aged 65+ also suffering from the unknown type.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/851697/PHE_Influenza_Surveillance_graphs_2019_2020_week_50.pdf

I’m no clinician or statistician! Just interested how others more knowledgeable might interpret the information?

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 20/06/2020 18:42

Good scientists are aware of the risk of bias and do their best to avoid it. Hence the ONS statistics attempt to be impartial - but liars use statistics.

Depends on your subjective definition of 'good'. Mathematics is relatively objective, but things like gender studies, anything to do with race will tend not to be.

ONS tend to avoid conclusions about reasons and instead present statistics. This has upset people demanding conclusions about racism, etc. in covid-19 reports.

and points to a higher risk in black people that cannot be explained by any of the data they had available. That data would not have included vitamin D status and would have been out of date. I'll see if I can find any data on vitamin Dstatus by ethnicity - it would be logical to expect it to be lower in dark skinned people in Britain but I know some take supplements, I dont know if it's a higher number than lighter skinned people.

study here shows South Asian most likely to be Vit-D deficient, black people next, white people much less likely.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7204679/

Same study shows no link at all between Vit D and catching covid-19, but a straightforward link between ethnicity and catching covid-19. The size of this excess risk of having caught covid-19 for black (4.3x) and south Asian (2.4x) people is similar to the excess risk of death found in the relatively contemporaneous ONS study of death rates (www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/coronavirusrelateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwales/2march2020to10april2020 - (4.2x for black, around 3x for South Asian).

We do know that BME populations much more likely to have caught covid-19, have higher occurrence of diabetes and morbid obesity, and the former is straightforwardly going to lead to higher death, and the latter two risk factors from various studies.

It might be that vitamin D is a risk factor once you adjust out infection rates, age, obesity and other proven risk factors, but you'd actually have to study that rather than assert it as fact.

whatsnext2 · 20/06/2020 19:21

In the USA blacks aged 35-44 had a mortality rate x9 that of white with Covid

cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1266/2020/06/20_Bassett-Chen-Krieger_COVID-19_plus_age_working-paper_0612_Vol-19_No-3_with-cover.pdf

Whether down to inequalities in accessing healthcare, socioeconomic factors or a genetic component eg sugar metabolism/diabetes needs to be unpicked. But A very real difference.

Yummyoldbag · 20/06/2020 19:40

Shoots, forgive me if I am missing something obvious (I am going to blame menopause brain...😂). Does your last post concur that BME populations are at greater risk, is that irrespective of other (known) factors? Previous threads had all but convinced me that this was not so, especially when you consider the number of BME people working within the NHS and Care sectors.

The Vitamin D stuff is very interesting, I know our NICE levels for normal are set very low which might have some impact? Have other European countries identified a risk associated with ethnicity? The cross referencing with cultural or religious risk is interesting, socialising (worshipping) in groups indoors would have a place in the numbers I am sure.

However, on the face of it the numbers seem to support some kind of genetic predisposition or ability to fight Covid. Does anyone know if there are such groupings seen with any other coronavirus? There are known genetic influences on HIV and Malaria mortality but what of corona?

Firefliess · 20/06/2020 19:43

Is one possible explanation for differences between ethic groups possibly genetic vulnerability? It's known that white Europeans have certain immunity from past exposure to diseases - including the plague. In the other extreme, native South American groups have been wiped out by measles and the common cold as they lack a history of exposure to those viruses. Whilst BAME groups are as different from one another as they are from white people, there could be some protective gene that is more common among white people couldn't there? Would be interesting to compare outcomes in counties where the relationship between ethnicity and social class/job role is very different to see if the same statistical difference appears there.

There are a lot of cultural things that put most BAME groups at greater risk too though - keyworker jobs, London, multi generational and overcrowded households, etc. These risks put the individuals at risk, but also expose their family members and people they mix with. So a non-keyworker, Asian person is at more risk than a non-keyworker white person because they're more likely to have taxi-drivers and doctors as their friends and family. I don't think the regression analysis that's been done to try to disentangle it all is able to take into account the affects of having high risk friends (who pray at the same mosque, etc (

Firefliess · 20/06/2020 19:47

@yummyoldbag - yes, see my previous post - there are known genetic vulnerabilities of South American groups to other viruses - so it's not implausible that this one could be fought better by people from some ethnic groups than others. There's also been found to be a statistical link with Covid19 to blood group (group A at higher risk).

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