Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

I recall they did update the name as they were worried people might confuse it with track and trace app and be reticent about joining. I did give them some info - broad location, sex, age etc but nothing v personal

@sleepwhenidie

On the news today they mentioned the apparently disproportionate effect on Jewish people. I haven’t looked at the data, anyone knowledgable on this? It’s been mentioned before I know - could it simply be down to a large Jewish population in London, which was obviously hit hard by the virus?

The data appears to show that rates of deaths of Jewish men per 100,000 are twice those of Christian males, or those of no religion. For women, risk is also elevated.

However, the Jewish sample size, especially in the under 65s, is tiny - only 16 under 65 men, and 7 under 65 women. Way too small to draw any conclusions for that sector.

They don't speculate as to reasons why older Jewish men and women might be at more risk. However, given the entire sample size for Jewish deaths is 453, clusters around specific events, for examples, could skew that. I don't know if any research has been done into whether there are any such clusters. There was some debate in April as to whether Purim, for example, might have led to some clusters, as well as several Hasidic community collective gatherings.

Arizona is looking particularly bad.... 3,200 new cases today and a population of 7.7m. That’s equivalent to the US having 146,000 cases per day!... And Trump has a rally there next week!

Several weeks ago we discussed articles in the Jerusalem Post and a statement by a UK Rabbi,
who were concerned at an earlier stage of the pandemic that UK Jews had a higher than average death rate

Today, Times of Israel:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/jews-other-religious-minorities-have-higher-covid-19-death-rate-uk-study-says/

"The Office for National Statistics said when accounting for factors such as population density, socio-economic conditions and ethnicity,
Jewish males had twice as high a risk of dying from coronavirus than Christian men.

Among females, Jews had 1.2 times a greater risk from dying of COVID-19 than Christians."

"In the period covered in the report, 453 Jews in England and Wales died of COVID-19, accounting for 1.2 percent of total deaths during that time, though they make up 0.5% of the population."

Jewish families tend to be larger with more multi generational households, or at least close interaction between generations. I think that's a likely part of the explanation of both Jewish and Bangladesh groups having higher death rates. Plus the London/urban thing with both.

Grim in the 21st Century;
are nearly 20% of English people really so fucking stupid & prejudiced that they blame Jews for any disaster ?

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/one-in-five-english-people-believe-covid-is-a-jewish-conspiracy-survey-629187

The Oxford Coronavirus Explanations, Attitudes, and Narratives Survey (OCEANS), was published in the journal Psychological Medicine on Friday.

It surveyed 2,500 adults who were representative of the English population according to age, gender, region and income,
on their attitudes toward the government narrative on coronavirus and related conspiracy theories between May 4 and May 11.
......
Presented with the statement “Jews have created the virus to collapse the economy for financial gain,”

5.3% of the interviewees “agreed a little,”
6.8% “agreed moderately,”
4.6% “agreed a lot,” and
2.4% “agreed completely,”

while some 80.8% did not agree with it at all.

God that is depressing @bigchoc!

Hello, long term lurker here!
I’ve been waiting today to see if there’s an update me figure on the proportion of the population with the virus currently. Last week was 1/1700, the week before 1/1000.
Was hoping for a new figure to day.... have I missed it somewhere?

Pretty much the same as last week Tea

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020

It's the ons infection survery published weekly. One caveat is the numbers of positive tests involved is small.

@TeaInTheGarden

Hello, long term lurker here! I’ve been waiting today to see if there’s an update me figure on the proportion of the population with the virus currently. Last week was 1/1700, the week before 1/1000. Was hoping for a new figure to day.... have I missed it somewhere?

The ONS study that came out yesterday said again

"We estimate that an average of 1 in 1,700 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 at any given time between 31 May and 13 June 2020."

But of course that is an average, so will be lower now, as Incidence has been declining during that period, as it also says -

"There were an estimated average of 26,900 new COVID-19 infections per week in England over the course of the study"

and last week's said the average was 31,600 - a decline of 15%. If the 1,700 reduced at the same rate, it would be 1/2000 now.

are nearly 20% of English people really so fucking stupid & prejudiced that they blame Jews for any disaster ?

I doubt it, but I imagine if you presented such statements in Muslim countries you'd get far higher statements of agreement.

Lots of people are stupid and impressionable and assent to stupid fake shit without fact checking. This is universal and it applies as much to supporting Black Lives Matter (which wants to defund the UK police, smash capitalism, etc., which is fine if you agree with that, but most people don't), as it does to agreeing to idiotic conspiracy theories when presented with them

Essentially you could make up any ridiculous shit and people would say yes, because a substantial proportion of humanity is impressionable as fuck. And to the extent that this is influenced by existing prejudices then people will believe it.

For example, it was claimed that David Cameron had fucked a pig. This appears to be a completely made up statement that had originally been quoted by a comedian as 'if you accuse someone of fucking a pig then you force them to put out a 'I did not fuck a pig statement''. Anyway, people were extremely willing to believe that David Cameron had fucked a pig, because they wanted it to be true. Maybe it is. But people who liked Cameron would be less likely to believe it, and those who don't like him more likely.

This is confirmation bias, and sometimes it leads people to reject bad things which people genuinely did do, such as rape, because they don't want it to be true.

I don't think it's accurate AT ALL to say 20% of English people believe Jews created covid-19, because it was a push statement.

The valid polling technique would be to ask an open-ended question, not ask people to directly deny that Jews had anything to do with it.

Also when you present people with no less than 48 statements, all false, and you do it online, with a range of answers from 'do not agree', 'agree a little', 'moderately', 'a lot', 'completely', then you are going to get a lot of people avoiding answering everything with 'do not agree', simply because that's how people answer studies.

It doesn't mean that 20% of people believe this.

If you look at the study

www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/9D6401B1E58F146C738971C197407461/S0033291720001890a.pdf/coronavirus_conspiracy_beliefs_mistrust_and_compliance_with_government_guidelines_in_england.pdf

then of all the 48 ridiculous idiotic statements served up to people online, then the one about Jews came last. People were much more likely to believe that the US created covid-19 as a bioweapon.

People were more likely to believe that it was a conspiracy to make Brexit look better, that the coronavirus vaccine will contain tracking microchips, and all manner of other batshit insane things.

Stupid people ask stupid people stupid questions and get stupid answers.

Who knew.

Ah yes - it also says H"owever, because of the low number of new positive cases, we cannot currently measure a statistically significant reduction. The incidence rate measures the occurrence of new cases of COVID-19." So basically numbers in the study are already so small that it's hard to see differences week on week.

And that utter shite is from Oxford University.

The OCEANS study also concluded that -

The numerous different conspiracy statements, often contradictory in detail, were all significantly associated

In other words, people who agreed/partially agreed that 5G was responsible also agreed that Jews were, that Muslims were, that Bill Gates is, etc. Incompatible statements, but a certain % of the population are just prone to conspiracy theories of all sorts - a conspiracy mentality.

Why would you put a question like that in a survey (re Jews) unless you have some kind of agenda ? I accept that I maybe totally naive when it comes to levels of anti Semitism but I really struggle to believe 1 in 5 people would believe that (I would believe that of a sample, 1 in 5 would be too lazy/thick to give any thought as to an answer though...a bit like a multiple choice question in an exam when you are baffled but have a stab...but don’t admit you don’t know)

Arizona and a rally of 20,000 - what could possibly go wrong?

Thank you both! I thought it was a PHE document which explains why I couldn’t find it...!
Glad to see it’s reducing. The numbers are indeed getting very small, so it’s getting less accurate I guess.
Does data from ZOE feed into this or is just from their 10 positive tests extrapolated up?

"I don't think it's accurate AT ALL to say 20% of English people believe Jews created covid-19, because it was a push statement"

20% of those sampled chose to say they did
That is worrying, whether they truly believed it or didn't care enough not to say they did.

"supporting Black Lives Matter (which wants to defund the UK police, smash capitalism, etc"

Most people support the principles of BLM - that black people are treated unfairly, especially by the police and especially by the US police -
not the political beliefs of a few hardcore activists

Rather like people can support Tory or Labour, without supporting the wilder fantasies of their respective extreme activists

Spain have produced some numbers - deaths increased 1,177 since they last updated two weeks ago. I’m not sure when those deaths occurred. They have produced an excess death number 43,360 - up 56% on expected - between 13 March and 22 May. That’s in a population of 46.9 million.

They say they are “still working to process and provide figures on the number of people who have died from the coronavirus in Spanish care homes”. Does that mean the current 28,313 total does not already include the deaths in care homes? That’s potentially an awful lot of people.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-infections-falling-across-uk-by-up-to-4-a-day-12010421

Coronavirus infections are falling across the UK by between 2% and 4% a day,
according to new government figures.

"Does that mean the current 28,313 total does not already include the deaths in care homes?"

I'm wondering if the care home deaths are mostly included in the 56% rise in excess deaths,
or if there are a considerable number of deaths in care homes - and lone elderly in their own homes - not yet registered.

The ZOE figures aren't accounted in the ons for as far as I'm aware, it's just their positive numbers (but I haven't doubled checked so someone please correct me if I'm wrong). I'd hope the government were looking at both though as think they are both useful tools if used in context.

@BigChocFrenzy

[[https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-infections-falling-across-uk-by-up-to-4-a-day-12010421]]

Coronavirus infections are falling across the UK by between 2% and 4% a day,
according to new government figures.

That's largely positive. Will be interesting to keep an eye on London as things ease (indeed all big metropolitan areas) but think some local increases are inevitable, it's more a case of making sure they are controlled. We don't have the luxury of stopping everything until we are at a point where we have no community transmission, that ship sailed at some point early march if not earlier.

@Littlebelina Zoe report to the government, if you’re an app uses you can get a copy of the report too. I was just trying to post one of their nice graphs but the bloody thing isn’t working atm!