Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Sleep NYT stats for the USA show new cases plateaued around 25,000 daily,
but deaths have been slowly decreasing, yesteday 764 deaths

120k deaths so far from 2.1 million confirmed cases

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

@cathyandclare

Slight increase in admissions today. 490 when it's been in the lower 400s. Too soon to panic, but something to keep an eye on maybe.

It often goes up slightly on a monday (which is what is reported on a Wednesday) but is slightly up on this time last week. Worth watching but as you say still early. 7 day averages still key

Or a Thursday even, forgetting what day it is!

arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

This is fascinating! A study into contact tracing in Lombardy. Nearly 70% of under 60s who were traced and tested positive remained asymptomatic

There was a town in N Italy where 1% of the population died (I lost the ref)
37% had antibodies,
so probably hadn't even reached herd immunity

Those 1% dead would presumably nearly all be over 60
That doubling of risk every 6-7 years soon adds up

@BigChocFrenzy out of interest does that mean you don’t think the situation in the US is necessarily quite as bad as it looks at first glance?

@jrobhatch29 The % asymptomatic varies so much between studies, but that is the highest I’ve seen. As you say fascinating.

Unfortunately now they dont release admissions data at the weekend it wont be until Monday that it's clear if admissions are increasing. The data is bumpy but positive tests levelled off a week ago and if young people at the protests went home and infected parents and/or grandparents admissions might rise a week or two later. So Monday will be interesting!

There were 2 outbreaks in meat processing plants in Wales - Anglesey and Wrexham. No idea how much that explains the Welsh figures. Scotland admissions data seems to arrive very much behind England and Wales - so the absence of recent figures is absence and not zero.

The NHS is peculiar about vitamin D - very reluctant to recommend supplementation because it can be damaging in excess, However even the NHS now says everyone should take a small supplement in winter and those indoors a lot should supplement all year.

There may be a study of vitamin D as a preventive as part of this study www.qmul.ac.uk/covidence/about-the-covidence-uk-study/

(Hope it's Ok to mention that - it's not data but it will eventually provide some and they are very keen to get more people signing up).

Excuse my ignorance but what foodstuffs do we get Vit D from? Is that the leafy vegetables one?

Marceline The graphs show US deaths have been decreasing slowly for some time
Cases have plateaued, so deaths may soon do as well, rather than declining

imo, no particular reason to expect a significant spike over the next couple of months,
unless Trump or some of his governor fans do something particularly stupid - always possible !

The USA has a population of 330 million,
so to compare to UK figures at this stage of the pandemic, I mentally divide theirs by 5 and then daily deaths etc look quite comparable

NYC was one of the hardest hit cities in the world with v high infection rate
and also comparatively high IFR, but is an outlier for the USA

It's a huge country, more like a continent,
so different states will have different curve gradients, peaks and timing,
due to e.g. great differences in population density between states.

Oily fish mainly. Mushrooms if grown in sunlight. Egg yolks. Not vegetables in general.

Piggy I choose animal sources for Vit D

Oily fish:
salmon, sardines, mackerel

Also egg yolks

Vit D .... oily fish & eggs (lots of sardines consumed here) - sunlight is best but we supplement year round & have done for ages.

Not much. Oily fish, mushrooms, eggs. Cereal and some orange juice is fortified with vit d

When I tested lowish for vitamin D I was eating food containing vitamin D twice a day most days. I supplement.

?

Oh dear... better get some stock. I eat crap,and certainly none of that stuff , except cereal sometimes.

That's more or less what my mayor is sating too mummy.

Leicester was mentioned in the briefing so Hancock is aware. What that means in practice I don't know.

I supplement. If you are a woman of a certain age, it sort of helps. I can't remember how or why, but my doctor also said to take it (I'm on HRT). I was only taking it between September and April over recent years, but I've kept going this year. Just one a day.

Do you think we are heading for another lockdown? Will the numbers start creeping back up 😩

I think the government are pretty much selling the full lockdown as a once in a lifetime experience tbh. Not sure what has happened to whackamole, though.

This link

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12

with the postcode search tool ...

It’s not actually giving results for a single postcode is it?!? I googled the MSOA that comes up when I search for my postcode ... the area that it’s quoting deaths from covers a very large number of postcodes!

I just had a panicked exchange with my
mum as apparently 25 people have died in my postcode ... which had a population of 93 people in the 2011 census! I had to attempt to explain what a MSOA is and that the tool isn’t a postcode-death count!

Bigchoc there are specific states in the US that look concerning, rather than overall country stats - eg Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, California, all reporting spikes that seem to big to be explained by increased testing...

too big

Piggy Morrisons sell vit D tablets for iirc about £3 for 3 months supply. I think they were £6 in Sains