Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

I agree with waiting for double blind tests on drugs with significant side effects, sometimes v severe ones

Thanks Big choc. Yeah have seen that. What worries me is that the numbers for North Wales, despite not being that high, don’t seem to be coming down at all.

Another slaughterhouse outbreak in Germany:
by far the worst new outbreak since lockdown

657 people have tested positive of 983 completed tests at the plant
More positives locally

7,000 people quarantined as a precaution

Plant has been shut down until outbreak is over

All schools in the region shut down until after the summer vacation.
All daycare shutdown until 29 June - this normally runs over the vacation

Smaller outbreaks continuing in care & nursing homes, also churches and the larger family parties allowed in a couple of states

==> Total cases in Germany rocketed from the usual 300-500 daily to 1,800, the highest for several weeks

==> This will raise the deaths after 1-2 weeks, currently has been in single or double digits for weeks

Manageable but as that SKorean article upthread stated:
anyone who thinks we can return to "pre-COVID normal" needs to get real

The "new normal" should allow ft schools and 90-95% of the economy to resume,
but some social distancing measures remain essential

It's interesting how good slaughterhouses are at spreading infection.

I read people complaining about PPE fees at dentists, but it seems that they are going to have to target these sort of places like slaughterhouses for regular random testing, because they are SO good at spreading the virus

I and all my family been on vit d since January and been telling everyone to take it.

I also think we have all had mild covid 19. My daughter was the least mild but she is a teen vampire and never exposes her body to sunlight!!

Wow, that's a big outbreak OP !

It can't JUST be shouting surely?
It does smack of poor working conditions, certainly.

Dentists are not good at spreading viruses. As a result of the HIV and vCJD our cross infection practices are probably far higher than hospitals. The only place you are at risk is in the waiting room where other people spread viruses. The new normal for everyone else is our normal. The only change is to OUR personal protection equipment in order to reduce OUR risk of being infected by patients. Remember it is the patients saliva that is being sprayed around not the dentists or their staff. We certainly don’t wear gloves , masks, respirators and gowns for the patients benefit !

I despair, I really do.

UK virus-tracing app switches to Google-Apple model www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336

@alreadytaken please could you point me in the direction of the studies thread where you mentioned you'd posed about Vit D studies. Thank you 👍

Studies Thread

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?

Outbreaks in slaughterhouses, churches, logistics centres etc have the additional problem that they increase community spread much more than outbreaks in care homes do

In particular, several outbreaks have caused surrounding schools and daycare to close,
whereas care home staff don't seem to spread infection within the community to the same extent - maybe because of better PPE adherence

Note:
This is not school & daycare reopening causing outbreaks;
it is schools being infected via parents working at infection epicentres.

Comment on Kucharski’s paper on tracing/isolation/distancing as pandemic control methods etc

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30512-0/fulltext

On Vitamin D in care homes, my Dad certainly gets daily vitamin D supplements and has done since admission last year (Wales) - I cant believe that this wouldn’t be routine for all residents, given the likely lack of sunlight they would get.

Meatpacking..as well as shouting and working in close proximity, cold temperatures probably also contribute?

ONS modelling shows “a clear downward trend” in the estimated percentage of people in England testing positive for Covid-19.

The ONS said the decline appears to have slowed in recent weeks- with the proportion testing positive dropping from an estimated 0.33% on 26 April to 0.10% by 26 May then 0.07% in the days up to 13 June.

The Zoe figures also show a decline that was slower last week than this week but is still significant and sustained.

Results are provisional because not all swab test results have been received.

Deaths in all settings 135 for today
Cases 1,218

Theory that low temperatures and high humidity favours covid, to explain seafood market outbreak, but I guess meat processing is the same conditions?

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-seafood-idUSKBN23P20T

Absolutely Whatsnext, I thought it was striking that there have been significant outbreaks at places selling raw meat and fish as well as places preparing meat. The original Hubei wet market would come into this category too.

Another outbreak at meat/food processing. In the UK

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53091149

Hence my question about research on transmission temperatures so for example when leisure centres open would ice rinks need extra risk assessments or are there other indoor cold facilities

Slight increase in admissions today. 490 when it's been in the lower 400s. Too soon to panic, but something to keep an eye on maybe.

It's interesting reading about the meat processing plants. I hadn't realised it was such a problem globally. Lots of different theories suggested: temperature - both too hot and too cold, close proximity not workers, long hours, high proportion of migrant workers who are also likely to live communally, the fact that they have been open throughout the pandemic so transmission chains may not have had the chance to be broken. I wonder if it's a sector that often struggles with mass outbreaks or if it's something more specific to the transmission of Covid. They should presumably enforce mask wearing from now on, although it seems the sort of workplace where you should wear masks anyway?

He didn't answer that local lockdown question at al well on briefing. My local mayor is very concerned that the info is not getting to areas in a timely fashion. All he can do is try to urge the residents to stick to cautious behaviour but his PH person is apparently kept almost entirely in the dark by PHE.

the stats coming out of the US look terrifying and no action appears to be being taken in response. Forecast is now 200,000 deaths by end of September and lockdown (what there was) continues to be relaxed? Is there a risk of the US becoming a 'plague state' when the rest of the developed world has got some kind of lid on the virus?

I think they wear hairnets, aprons, boots, gauntlets and gloves and masks in meat processing plants anyway!