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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

966 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2020 19:35

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
Coquohvan · 18/06/2020 21:31

@sleep
Yes I agree 20k+ new cases compared to our 1k+ today.
Fear not Trump says its on the decline.

Cedilla · 18/06/2020 21:32

torydeathdrug Dh and I looked ours up and yes, realised after a bit that it's not a single postcode.....more like a local ward, once we read the area names.

That came as a relief looking at a neighbouring area where there have, sadly, been 17 deaths (2 in ours). And we're not in a very built-up area.

ListeningQuietly · 18/06/2020 21:39

Torydeath
THe ONS map is by electoral ward as its linked to the Index of multiple deprivation database
each ward has around 1500 people in it
so rural ones are many miles across
and urban ones care a couple of streets

in parts of the country its possible to workout which wards have nursing homes in them
(death rates in double digits since March when neighbouring wards have low single digits)

whatsnext2 · 18/06/2020 21:42

Graphical analysis of cases, deaths both internationally and within uk

www.iancampbell.co.uk/covid-19/14.html

EugeniaGrace · 18/06/2020 21:56

@whatsnext2 The problem with Ian Campbell’s analysis is that the data it’s based on is confirmed cases per day.

The U.K. would look a lot better in this chart if it continued a head-in-the sand approach of only testing those presenting in hospital with severe symptoms. The graph would also look a lot different if testing had been ramped up to this level around the time of the peak.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 18/06/2020 22:04

Torydeath THe ONS map is by electoral ward as its linked to the Index of multiple deprivation database each ward has around 1500 people in it

No.

An output area is 100 to 625 people, averaging 300.

A lower layer super output area is 1000 to 3000 people averaging 1500 comprising multiple OAs.

A middle layer super output area is 5000 to 15000 people averaging 7500 comprising multiple LSOAs

OA/LSOA/MSOA are confined to one local authority.

These are statistical divisions, whereas electoral wards are political ones. Wards are re-drawn much more often than OAs.

The ONS data is at MSOA or Local Authority level.

Derbygerbil · 18/06/2020 22:13

Assuming the US’s testing regime isn’t significantly better than the UK’s (and despite big issues in the early days I don’t believe that would be the case now), the US’s new infections are running at about 3.5 to 4 times the UK’s level per head of population looking at 7 days averages.

It certainly looks like numbers are rising in a number of states, Texas, Florida and California for instance, with infections rising across the country by 13% across the past week, compared to a reduction of 12% in the U.K.

So in terms of numbers and direction of travel, the U.K. is definitely doing better (at the moment!)

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 18/06/2020 22:25

Guardian has this slightly odd view on ONS data

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/covid-19-excess-death-rates-more-than-twice-uk-average-for-19-english-councils

Odd why? Because it's for W1-23, whereas covid-19 started in W12 approximately, so W1-11 is kind of irrelevant, and because we'd expect more deaths from covid-19 in older LAs, and fewer in younger ones. Also by adding in W1-W11, which might have been a mild winter with fewer deaths than average, we'd show no excess deaths for the year when in fact there were fewer deaths in January-March and then excess in April/May.

Also it claims

[Excess deaths] is considered the gold standard for measuring the full impact of Covid-19 crisis because it accounts not just for people who have died directly as a result of coronavirus. For example, it includes the deaths of those who may not have sought or received treatment due to lockdown measures, deaths caused by a lack of basic care or nutrition, and undiagnosed coronavirus deaths.

However it doesn't really, because the registrations won't have happened yet for some indirect covid-19 causes such as murder, suicidide, etc. A better way would be to compare week-by-week occurrences by ICD-10 code

icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en

and to exclude those causes from previous years that would be registered late.

In particular

V01-X59 Accident
X60-X84 Intentional self-harm
X85-Y09 Assault
Y10-Y34 Event of undetermined intent
Y35-Y36 Legal intervention and operations of war

would be removed from previous years death counts, and compared to this years without those causes, by week of death. We don't really care about car accident deaths registered in June that occured in November for example.

It's not clear what's meant by this:

Excess deaths are calculated by taking the total number of people whose deaths were registered in 2020 and comparing it with the average number of deaths in the five years prior.

Presumably for the same weeks.

It makes this rather bald claim:

"There is a strong correlation between high excess death rates and age. For example, the rural South Lakeland area’s excess death rate stands at 39%, almost twice the national average, and the area is one of the oldest in the UK when measured by median age."

However median age is not particularly relevant - the relevant figure would be the population over 80. And in general if South Lakeland is older than average then the existing death rate would have reflected that.

We expect deaths to include some level of deaths due to illness, which is largely due to age, and some due to premature death from suicide/murder/accidents. Therefore it doesn't obviously follow that age would mean high excess death rates, as while the premature death registrations would not rise in covid-19, the death rate is likely to rise in proportion to previous years - a very young area would have a lower death rate to start with so any rise would be a bigger %.

It's not clear if they are just stating things as fact here without evidence, but it seems that way. I would look more towards a particularly large number of care homes relative to population, and the size of the over 80 population, not just 'the median age' is higher.

torydeathdrug · 18/06/2020 22:32

A middle layer super output area is 5000 to 15000 people averaging 7500

^ thank you, I couldn't find how many people were in a MSOA ... that will be very reassuring to my mum (I did say that I think I'd have noticed 25% of my neighbours dying in April).

Redolent · 18/06/2020 22:32

Arizona’s case numbers per capita are ridiculously high, apparently worse than Lombardy at its peak. Huge consistent rises in cases and hospitalizations.

Tweet from Harvard epidemiologist here:

mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1273047315121606661?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fox10phoenix.com%2Fnews%2Fharvard-epidemiologist-says-arizona-is-currently-the-worst-off-amongst-u-s-states-in-terms-of-covid-19

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
Firefliess · 18/06/2020 22:45

@shoots I'm not sure your can tell easily whether excess deaths were Covid or not by looking at the age groups - most Covid deaths are old people, but so are most deaths from all causes. In fact the odds on dying from Covid (if you catch it) are about the same for all age groups over 20 as the risk of dying from something else over a 12 month period. What would be a much better indicator would be a gender split. About 2/3 of Covid deaths are men, compared with 50% of deaths overall, so if the unexplained excess deaths are disproportionately men, then they are probably undiagnosed Covid. I'd love to see that analysis of UK death rates this year, if anyone knows whether it's been done?

(You cannot do it using the census output areas that the guardian was trying to use because the male/female ratio doesn't vary much between areas.)

RapidRainbow · 18/06/2020 22:53

Does anyone know where I can find daily new cases by area? It all seems to have switched to overall cases

torydeathdrug · 18/06/2020 23:00

Has anyone seen anything about this anywhere? It's behind teh Times paywall so I've only read the snippet

"China recorded a tenfold surge in infections recorded as flu at the end of last year, a study has found, suggesting coronavirus may have already spread to thousands of people and was being misdiagnosed.

Health authorities reported 1.2 million cases of influenza in December, compared with 130,442 recorded in the same month of 2018. The figure was also nearly twice that of the previous year’s peak month for flu, January, when 608,511 cases were registered."

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-flu-spike-in-china-last-year-suggests-earlier-outbreak-fm869vt70

I wonder how many deaths there were from this December 'flu'.

Derbygerbil · 18/06/2020 23:01

About 2/3 of Covid deaths are men, compared with 50% of deaths overall, so if the unexplained excess deaths are disproportionately men, then they are probably undiagnosed Covid.

Very good point... would be interesting to see this analysis.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 18/06/2020 23:40

bout 2/3 of Covid deaths are men, compared with 50% of deaths overall, so if the unexplained excess deaths are disproportionately men, then they are probably undiagnosed Covid

No not directly. We've already had an ONS excess deaths analysis which you can Google if you want, but essentially excess deaths beyond the covid-19 are in very old people, and as time went on they decreased. So someone dying in early April in a care home is less likely to have got covid-19 diagnosed than in early May, even if they both died of the same thing.

Anyway, the death causes that went up were 'signs/other' which includes 'old age', and 'Alzheimers'. Best guess is this was in fact covid-19.

Because a 60-year-old who died of covid-19 is likely NOT to have been in a care home but in a hospital, they would have been tested and recorded with the same.

So anyway, 60 year olds of either sex wouldn't be 'excess deaths', but 90 year olds are quite likely to have been 'undiagnosed covid-19', and these are around 2/3 women as a population because of men dying sooner.

So you really need to adjust by the age and sex on a local level. These stats are available by LA (count of population by age and sex). Not sure about MSOA.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/06/2020 01:40

Sweden serology:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/18/world/europe/18reuters-health-coronavirus-sweden-immunity.html?

the study, the most comprehensive in Sweden yet, showed only around 6.1% of Swedes had developed antibodies [by end of May]

"The spread is lower than we have thought but not a lot lower," Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told a news conference, adding that
the virus spread in clusters and was not behaving like prior diseases.

"We have different levels of immunity on different parts of the population at this stage, from 4 to 5% to 20 to 25%,"

OP posts:
Pussycatinboots · 19/06/2020 06:54

^The ONS map is by electoral ward as its linked to the Index of multiple deprivation database each ward has around 1500 people in it

No.

An output area is 100 to 625 people, averaging 300.^

LQ was correct originally, I think, - our estate has 100 homes, mostly 4 bed, the neighbouring one is mainly 3 and 4 bed and the other bigger 80s built ones are 2-3 and 3-4 beds. There's way more than 625 in the area (30+ in the 10 houses in our road alone) I think there's probably more than 1500 too.

Firefliess · 19/06/2020 08:02

@pussycat There are two layers of output areas Lower and middle (LSOA and MSOA) MSOAs are larger and contain a few LSOAs. They aren't all exactly the same size though, especially if new housing has recently been built.

@Bigchoc That's interesting about the Swedish scientists saying it isn't behaving like other diseases and there are more clusters. I wonder if that's some property of the virus (some super-spreaders and others who are hardly infectious) Or whether it's related to behaviour - people have responded to Covid in ways they don't normally, so many people are very isolated, whilst others still have to work/travel in crowded places, which could affect patterns of transmission.

DippyAvocado · 19/06/2020 08:19

Re. antibodies, not sure if anyone has linked this yet (apologies if they have) but research from Wuhan seems to show that asymptomatic sufferers have a much lower immune response and antibodies may disappear from their blood fairly soon after they have the virus, although this doesn't necessarily mean they don't have immunity.

DippyAvocado · 19/06/2020 08:22

The research was initially published in Nature Magazine.

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

Pussycatinboots · 19/06/2020 10:41

Fire I looked at the LSOA for us, which is one Council ward. There's original housing stock from pre-60s, then different "phases" of housing developments mainly from early 80s to 2001(mine).
No way there are less than 1000 in our ward (which has had 1 death).
I also looked at my home town. I was poll clerk and presiding officer for elections for a few years there, so I know there were min 1500+ on the elec roll (a few yrs ago) for our "ward" (which has had 4 deaths). No new housing there, anything from 1 bed flats to 6+bed big houses.

Might just be my area, but who knows?

BigChocFrenzy · 19/06/2020 11:38

Fireflies Scientists agree now that COVID spreads via "clusters" rather than evenly, e.g.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-alll^

SARS-CoV-2 .....Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three.^
But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all.
.....
That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k),
which describes how much a disease clusters.

The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people
.....
in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1
“Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,”

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 19/06/2020 11:42

A few days ago,
Merkel and the leaders of the 16 German states agreed that ft schools would return after the vacation
(providing COVID risk does not rise v sharply)

Staff & students can continue to individually choose to wear masks.

Education will be prioritised, so measures will taken to reduce the risk of infection coming in from outside

  • which requires some continuing restrictions on adults
e.g. keeping:

. the ban on all large events - including Oktoberfest until at least end October
. the 1.5 meters in public until cases drop sufficiently
. mandatory masks in public transport and in shops,
. contact limits - currently 10 people can meet, more in a couple of regions
. automatic local lockdowns when new cases reach 50 / 100,000 pop in 7 days, (or proportionately, to lock down just care homes etc)

OP posts:
wintertravel1980 · 19/06/2020 11:47

I'm sure everyone has already seen this but just in case:

The UK’s chief medical officers have agreed that the Covid-19 threat level should be lowered one notch to “epidemic is in general circulation” from “transmission is high or rising exponentially”.

The joint biosecurity centre recommended the Covid-19 alert level should move from level 4 (a Covid-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially) to level 3 (a Covid-19 epidemic is in general circulation).

whatsnext2 · 19/06/2020 12:43

The Bergarmo antibodies were NON random sample and close contacts, hence high percentage.

In other news, covid detected in a Milan waste water from mid December (in Italian)

www.iss.it/comunicati-stampa/-/asset_publisher/fjTKmjJgSgdK/content/id/5422725

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