Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

This one has certainly taken a turn since I was last on it.

Excellent excess death graphics in that link, pussycatinboots
I might add that in the next OP

May be worth inserting the OP again here:

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3932888-daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-10#97273825
especially this line:

“We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐”

Thanks for all your contributions, @BigChocFrenzy (OP)

Zoe Covid now estimates that we are running at 3,612 new cases a day. Last week, I think, the number was around 4,900 so this gives a 26% drop week on week

That's good news. I've been refreshing their screen to see the update. The week before there was a 47% drop (39% in England) so it's encouraging to see numbers continuing to go down. It would indicate that R is significantly below 1, at least in the community if not in hospitals and care homes.

I think the ONS usually update their community testing results on a Thursday too. Last week the numbers were small so less reliable though.

R Numbers from Zoe app:

imo, the human touch in contact tracking is vital, gains information that an App won't and should be expanded in the UK
(system has worked v well in Germany)

However a reliable App is a v useful bit of kit in the toolbox - if enough people will download & use it

Sam Coates Skyy@SamCoatesSky*

... Watch Health minister Lord Bethell on tracing app

mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1273292902257569795
(video)

• Apps can be intimidating for users, in a way call centres are not

• Apps around the world inc France, Singapore and Norway proved challenging

• App “isn’t the priority for us” and will be ready “for the winter”

"It would indicate that R is significantly below 1, at least in the community if not in hospitals and care homes."

Very likely
We could confirm this if we had age breakdowns for the new deaths each week,
but afaik we have to wait for ONS to reach this date

Deaths have always been predominantly among the 80+ group,
but if COVID is circulating far less among the community, then I'd expect the minority of deaths in the working age population to be an even smaller % than before

Yes I think you're right @BigChocFrenzy but it's the data gathering it does which can then be used by tracers, isn't it?

I wasn't upset by the lack of app per se but by the feeling that the UK government just doesn't know what it's doing.

StrawberryJam imo, it should be tests that should drive tracing,
since these will have the highest chance of producing more positive contacts

The system in Germany from February has been that as soon as someone receives a positive test,
they are contacted by tracking teams based in the local authority.
There were > 20,000 trained trackers, possibly more now

Contacts are traced and then tested themselves

If there are sufficient positive tests in a locality

• 50 / 100,000 population within 7 days -

then there is a localised lockdown around the epicentre e.g. a meat plant

From the start, anyone found positive was given a formal order of mandatory isolation,
with stiff fines & possibly even jail, for being outside their property for any reason, bar a fire etc

The App is now running, but it is a complementary piece of kit, that will only reach those who download and use it fully

There is resistance here, due to memories of Stasi monitoring the population and passed down tales of Nazi control too

Other countries will also have a significant chunk of the population who have no Smart phone / won't download the App / will deliberately leave it at home sometimes

Is anyone else looking at the stats in Wales? I live in England but am from North Wales. South Wales seem to have successfully flattened a serious peak that happened in march/april and cases are now very low there but in north wales they are remaining stubbornly at 30-50 cases and a few deaths a day, not going down at all. i wonder why this is given that lockdown is much stricter in Wales. Am aware of the incident at the meat packing factory in Llangefni but most cases are coming from north east wales, some distance away. It would help if we know if these cases were in care homes/hospitals rather than in the community - that would make more sense if so.

@OhTheRoses

There will be stats around schools and the impact of Covid on various groups.

At 9.27 perhaps you should be on zoom supporting learning rather than on MNet.

I rest my case.

And what "statistic" are you quoting there, precisely?

Bashing much?

I rest my case.

BCF BBC do occasionally come up with a tiny pearl of wisdom

I cannot understand why vitamin d is not being recommended. Does anyone know if it is being given to everyone shielding or in care homes at least? At the very least it would help mood for those not getting out at this time. It is vital for wellbeing.

I really believe having optimum levels of vit D (higher than just being acceptable to NICE guidelines) would prevent deaths and severe symptoms. Have patients been tested for Vit D to see if any of those dying/on oxygen have optimum levels?

I know BAME people living here need in UK much higher doses of Vit D but do they need higher levels on blood tests or just higher dose to achieve same levels?

I just cant understand why it has been so dismissed. Are there concerns about supply of the supplements?

Latest NHS Test and Trace data has been released for the week 4 June - 10 June. Improved reach compared to the initial data.

▶️ 5,949 positive cases transferred to service
▶️ 73% reached to provide contacts

▶️ 44,895 contacts identified
▶️ 91% of identified contacts were reached and advised to self-isolate

Frazzled I found this for Wales, confirmed cases decreasing slowly for the country as a whole.
You can select your local authority for the local table:

Apps can be intimidating for users, in a way call centres are not

There are government trust issues in the UK too.

"Have patients been tested for Vit D to see if any of those dying/on oxygen have optimum levels? "

There have been studies showing such patients have v low Vit D, but that also happens when the immune system is under great stress

It's not been publicised much, maybe drowned out by other news,
but very simplistic info and Vit D supplement recommendation from the NHS here:

www.nhs.uk/news/food-and-diet/the-new-guidelines-on-vitamin-d-what-you-need-to-know/

"The new advice from PHE is that adults and children over the age of one should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10mcg of vitamin D, particularly during autumn and winter."

"Does anyone know if it is being given to everyone shielding or in care homes at least?"

I don't know about care homes, but shielded people outside these and everyone else are presumably expected to get their own Vit D

I am shielding, had Government letter and a few texts - had no contact from any medical person and no information about vitamin D.
I take it anyway, as last year when tested I was very low. Go told me to buy some from a chemist!

So no idea of others in England have had advice but none here. AN elderly family member in a care home - not been told they have been given Vit D ( and they have had Covid 19).

Gp - not Go!

@BigChocFrenzy fab, sorry do you have a link? not coming up

I cannot understand why vitamin d is not being recommended.
Completely agree. Cabs especially for BAME. People leapt to the conclusion that BAME racism was the reason without bothering to consider this.

I think because the NHS moves slowly (bad) and believes in evidence (good). I read today that NICE is fast tracking a review. Don’t know why they didn’t start that 2 months ago when the evidence started to appear, but I am hopeful they will have it in place by the all important winter season.

Sorry, frazzled the App shows the photos, but sometimes Safati won't

You probably already have seen this for Wales, but here it is, with pulldown for local authority:

public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

Vit D is v low risk, with almost no chance of side effects unless at insane doses