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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

966 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/06/2020 19:35

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
StrawberryJam200 · 18/06/2020 00:15

Re test and trace app:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53083340

Warning: it actually brought me to tears.

HateIsNotGood · 18/06/2020 00:23

Seems the latest outbreak in Beijing - in the Big Market that includes a Butcher's Row (as also found here in the UK) is not actually caused by the 'Imported' European Salmon but by the Chopping Board itself which transferred CV19 to the Salmon.

So, even though the original source of CV-19 transfer to the Chopping Board is yet to be identified - poor food hygeine is clear.

I mentioned Butcher's Row above - these are distinct from Fishmongers - why did a mammalian virus transfer to fish? They only did because of poor hygeine - the fish and mammal were both dead and raw meat; together in a manmade and not a natural environment.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2020 00:55

"meat packing plants seem to be prone to outbreaks"

Dippy Seems a combination of people close together indoors doing manual labour in a noisy environment,
so breathing heavily and shouting to be heard

OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 18/06/2020 06:43

And if I understand this correctly, their living conditions (over here) are akin to fruitpickers - work safety and related offices are looking into this.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/06/2020 06:54

imo, the Uk response has been seriously hampered by centralisation,
which is inefficient, unresponsive and v v slow.

From my view of education over 20 years and a friend with a very medical family, including her father who is a viral pathologist who also taught at Oxford and helped with some of the set up of the nightingales, it's been hampered by a mix of centralisation of response within a context where response systems are being and have been decentralised.

Friend's father is hopping mad that existing structures within the nhs, some of which he set up, have not been used re testing, tracing and communications, and between test centres and Gps. There are existing structures he's said that would have made test and trace easier.

I can see how similar structures and approaches that used to exist under Labour, have now gone under the tories and would have made a variety of issues with schools more streamlined.

This includes the fact that the primary curriculum was shifted down a year or more. For example, some key learning that was taught in y3 or y4, 10 years ago, was brought down into y2 and so on, with criticism, so I see it being reset back to what it was, with little negative impact on secondary skills.

Children with send and who are classed as vulnerable are an entirely different, emergency, issue. There are more issues imo around mental health, and secondary learning, results/ exams etc, but goal posts can be changed. You don't stop learning when you leave school.

"A happy child will learn" isn't a flippant empty woo phrase, an unhappy child will definitely not learn anything, and has been shown to be one of the many reasons why racist culture affect the achievements of black children.

The absolute biggest issue within schools is that social services referrals are on the floor. Because schools do this daily. The great lost education chant is a Trojan horse, a necessary one, to get the most vulnerable children back in.

Independent schools have always had an edge and more cash, smaller class sizes and creative teachers not always trained as such, but half the privilege there is the extended network of affluent parents as who you know counts for more after university.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/06/2020 06:56

The analysis around education in the media and on mn and by the average person not in education, as these threads have shown around stats and science, is linear and binary. The bigger picture is far more complex.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/06/2020 06:57

many of my sentences need overhauling, it's too early and I don't have my glasses on

Pussycatinboots · 18/06/2020 07:11

I saw this and thought it was a very visual way of getting the message of how badly we've (uk) handled the situation across when comparing figures with other countries.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53073046

Piggywaspushed · 18/06/2020 07:36

I agree with dippy . Please, I am a teacher who is happy to rant and inform on other threads but I come on here for a respite, having tried to avoid the worst of the anti teacher sentiments found in spots of MN. I am happy to discuss data around ther return to school but don't want the private school vs state school debate and the 'unions are being obstructive' stuff on here!

(FWIW, my head has called our union reps obstructive (mainly because we want to know what we are actually doing, much like the parents! And because we'd like people to clean, and some soap : controversial). Despite this, he has gone ahead and done everything he said he would do, a lot of which is stupid and gives us less than a week's notice of any big changes. Heads are VERY compliant on the whole. My DH works in a private school and there is no way he is working harder than me; they only have one year group back in, and break up in 2 weeks). Across the years, TeacherTapp has shown private school teachers to be less stressed than their counterparts. It flipped recently but has now reset itself again. They also report working fewer hours, even during the pandemic : prior to the pandemic, any reports on state primary teacher hours reported really genuinely excessive worked hours , so there are some stats. Hey ho. Moving on.)

Thanks for the info om meat plants (and thanks for prodding it dippy)

I hadn't though about the living conditions : but that makes sense. They employ migrant labour then?

There has been an outbreak in a UK plant that provides chicken to M and S and KFC and I read meat packing plants were responsible for outbreaks in Europe so I wondered what could be more specific about them than , say, an Amazon warehouse. I expect both are pretty unethical employers!

BovvyDazz · 18/06/2020 07:39

How much of a view can we get of the cases that are testing positive now, how much is community transmission.

These stats from PHE suggests it’s mainly over 65s who are testing positive at the moment... is that because they are the ones with symptoms justifying testing, or does it mean most cases are happening in care home settings still?
My local authority cases aren’t going down as fast as most others (still between 8-10 ); but I don’t know where the cases are.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
BovvyDazz · 18/06/2020 07:51

Also... I’m not sure how much we can trust the data by local authority; as it appears that most cases are now being identified through commercial labs (pillar 2 in green on the attached) rather than via the government testing (which are not included in the figures by region/local authority)?
Or has anyone found data for cases (by day) by local authority including the commercial tests?

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10
Firefliess · 18/06/2020 08:09

@bovvy - I think looking at the trend for over 85s (rather than 65s) is the best indicator of it being care home spread. You can see the later peak in the chart for that she group. But those charts do suggest that's a big part of the positive tests.

OhTheRoses · 18/06/2020 08:16

dippy, piggy I didn't see school bashing I saw some opinions being made and some factual information provided. The fact that state schools have not opened effectively is a massive part of the Covid issue and there will be a lot to emerge in coming years. As there will be in Covid. It is hugely relevant.

May I respectfully remind you that this thread is populated by adults not 8 year olds and as such you have no authority to tell the other grown ups they may not raise a topic that is relevant to the clinical, social and economic aspects of Covid-19.

If you don't like the discussion, wait until it passes to another topic.

Firefliess · 18/06/2020 08:22

I think this has already been linked to below, but it's very interesting data to get a sense of whether countries are reporting anything like all of their Covid deaths. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53073046

It looks like most of the South American ones are seeing huge numbers of deaths not reported as Covid. The UK was missing quite a lot earlier on, but now seems to be recording all its excess deaths as Covid.

alreadytaken · 18/06/2020 09:03

I dont know how to get the grey bits - but this is what you wrote shoots

"And the hospitals still empty even as deaths at home rose slightly last week (this doesn't mean more people dying, as registration/bank holiday anomalies could affect this, but we can clearly see that the hospitals are doing almost fuck all work at the moment)."

Hospitals are empty - as the statistics you quoted show they continued to see patients, even some non-emergncy patients. I see that I need to explain to you a little about how hospitals amnaged. To deal with Covid patients they turned theatres into intensive care units, because theatres have the sort of equipment they need. They also turned normal wards into Covid wards where they could try to keep infected patients away from the others . They had to do that without testing and with inadequate PPE so inevitably some patients with Covid were missed, the staff became infected and you get hospital transmission.

Since your theatres are being used for Covid patients you cant do surgery - and anyway your surgeons are probably tending to the Covid cases while your junior doctors are nurses because you havent got enough specialist nurses.

Your laboratories are roped in to test patients and staff to try and build up the inadequate testing. You are having to scan patients to assess the damage to their lungs, you need blood test to tests how their organs are holding up or if you need to give them other support. Intensive care is, as you might guess, intensive i.e. it uses a lot more resources than normal hospital care. So you have to do less other work.

As the numbers decline your Covid wards are returned to normal wards and you start to take up other work. You need less intensive care so you start to return your wards to normal wards and hopefully your theatres return to doing surgery.

The hospitals are not empty, they are not doing almost fuck all work but the statistics are not yet available to show that. So until they are why not stop making comments about something where you clearly have no understanding of what is happening. And when the statistics are available and they show less work taking place try to understand why it takes time to return to full capacity when you still have people whose recovering is slow in a number of your beds.

alreadytaken · 18/06/2020 09:07

For those interested in vitamin D - NICE finally looking at this - I've posted more info on the studies thread. Spain and France have already started intervention studies but while Spain is planning to report by end June the French study is end July.

cathyandclare · 18/06/2020 09:15

As the numbers decline your Covid wards are returned to normal wards and you start to take up other work. You need less intensive care so you start to return your wards to normal wards and hopefully your theatres return to doing surgery.

I think this is what Shoots was saying. The adaptation back to normal work has been slow and difficult because of the worry of spreading Covid. The numbers of Covid inpatients and those in ITUs have dropped. Surgeons, gynaecologists and other junior doctors are no longer requisitioned to support Covid patients. Many specialities have been quiet for several weeks.

However activity is returning, sadly, they are now increasingly dealing with people who didn't present with significant and worrying health problems until too late because of fear of the virus.

Piggywaspushed · 18/06/2020 09:27

No one said there was bashing roses; this thread is to discuss statistics.

alreadytaken · 18/06/2020 09:32

No, shoots did not say that. She said, without any idea of what was happening, that hospitals were empty and doing almost fuck all work.

Whether some hospitals are being too slow in returning to normal work is something only time will tell. I know, anecdotally, that it is happening. I also know that changed working practises mean that some of it may not be picked up in current statistics. We are going to need to count the video appointments as out patient attendances, for example.

user1493494961 · 18/06/2020 09:38

I think the meat packing plant on Anglesey would be more likely to employ local rather than 'migrant labour'.

cathyandclare · 18/06/2020 09:38

I can only talk anecdotally from medical friends and colleagues. They report very quiet wards and many more empty beds than usual- but that there has been more normal work resuming over the past two weeks. The Colleges and specialist societies have been proactive in producing guidelines for getting back to business safely.

MarcelineMissouri · 18/06/2020 09:38

Hello to all the number crunchers in this thread. I wondered what your views are on the outbreak in Beijing and also the current situation in some US states where numbers seem to be rising. I was reading some twitter threads saying that for some states this isn’t really accurate due to ‘salting’ their figures? I can’t really follow it as it seems to be implying they’re deliberately making things look worse than they really are..?

OhTheRoses · 18/06/2020 09:59

There will be stats around schools and the impact of Covid on various groups.

At 9.27 perhaps you should be on zoom supporting learning rather than on MNet.

I rest my case.

StrawberryJam200 · 18/06/2020 10:06

If anyone's interested, I'm trying to revive the Worried about Coronavirus threads, in order that this one can concentrate on numbers etc as per its original intent.

wintertravel1980 · 18/06/2020 10:09

Zoe Covid now estimates that we are running at 3,612 new cases a day. Last week, I think, the number was around 4,900 so this gives a 26% drop week on week:

covid.joinzoe.com/data

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