Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Based on all of the knowledge shared here so far, do people think it’s likely we’ll be able to travel abroad in September?

I’m hoping to visit family in South Africa but can’t keep up with the changing rules. I miss them like mad.

So looking at all deaths we're pretty much back to the 5 year average.

No. Firstly as I observed last week, the weekly registrations are shit because of bank holidays.

Secondly, we have 8782 deaths in the main three venues (care homes, hospitals, at home), and 9429 overall SO FAR that occurred in week 23. But this EXCLUDES motor accidents, suicides, poisonings, drug overdoses, etc., as these won't be registered for months. Probably around 500 of these. And some more will be registered in the following week - 400+ deaths were registered in the last week for week 22 (compare current week's graph with previous).

So this week (by occurrences) deaths are down by around 200 from last week, which is a continued fall, but we are still definitely for sure above average. If we consider 9429 ALREADY registered, and 400+ to be registered in the next week, a few more hundred in the following weeks, and then maybe 400 more over the year ahead we are around 8% above average. At the very very least 5%.

Definitely 'elevated deaths'. Not as bad as normal winter. Not justifying any 'lockdown' from the deaths alone. Only further contagion could justify that.

And the hospitals still empty even as deaths at home rose slightly last week (this doesn't mean more people dying, as registration/bank holiday anomalies could affect this, but we can clearly see that the hospitals are doing almost fuck all work at the moment).

Which of those links shows the daily infection rate and where the highest number of cases are?

I'm interested in BAME as a 'risk factor', particularly this bit:

“In studies of patients in London hospitals, black, African, Asian and minority groups show higher rates of admission to hospital,
which shows they are more likely to have become infected under conditions where the virus dose is maybe high...

So, I work in a school where we have currently risk assessmed BAME colleagues as not able to be in school. We have a very high % of BAME employees (majority). When we made the decision, it was the right thing to do - mostly because of other risk factors for some of these guys.

But I'm worried that the report doens't really answer any questions about how we move forward - particularly for September. We can manage now, although we can't get any more children back in school, but it's not sustainable to have such a huge number of staff 'working from home' if we're back to school full time. Or even part time frankly.

Is a school a condition where virus dose is high? Probably not now, but what about in November, when virus dose of everything is high in schools.

I wonder how other organisations are doing this. The NHS for example.

So, I work in a school where we have currently risk assessmed BAME colleagues as not able to be in school. We have a very high % of BAME employees (majority).

Lol that's batshit crazy. If there is any risk inherent to being BAME, it's certainly smaller than the risk associated with being male. And far tinier than the risk associated with being older.

Unless the only people left working are in their 20s and 30s this is unconscionable.

And in good health, I should add

There's almost certainly a trivial risk, or zero, associated with being black, Asian etc., once you adjust out the increased likelihood to be morbidly obese, have diabetes, etc. And on an individual level a healthy young BAME person is at no risk whatsoever.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves Additionally of course, and I think you have noted this before, it is not even "BAME". I wish, wish, wish, there was better reporting of which specific parts of BAME are more at risk ie: Bangladeshi. I did see it written somewhere, buried in the small print.

And also this is nothing new. There are already so many health reports highlighting increased risks for certain BAME communities with regards to other health issues. The main issue with any poor health outcome, for any community, is socio-economic first and foremost.

Of course.

It wasn't a risk factor on our general risk assessment, although I had been concerned at asking a >50 year old, Indian, asthmatic man to come to school for training via public transport. He came in, but by car so I felt less bad (he HAD to frankly - his inability to do anything remotely was unsustainable too.)

The person who was most worried about it, and initiated us changing our risk assessment, is Pakistani. Older, but not >55. And female. At that point a black African person on our management team (who is at home because she's asthmatic) had not mentioned anything at all. Presumably because she was already at home. Not that I'm suggesting anything.

We've got lots of very anxious staff too, who currently aren't in. But that's another issue.

Anyway, glad I'm not making the final decision on this.

Is a school a condition where virus dose is high?

Does that matter wrt BAME?

As I understood the evidence - grateful to be corrected - including the testimony yesterday was not that BAME individuals (when corrected for sex, age, ill health etc) get sicker when they are exposed to high viral doses but that they are socio-ecomically predisposed to being exposed to high viral doses in the first place. Classically the taxi driver or care worker - more likely to be in occupations regularly & frequently exposed.

I wish, wish, wish, there was better reporting of which specific parts of BAME are more at risk ie: Bangladeshi.

Eh, we really don't know if any BAME people are at inherently greater risk than white people, but black people have had the greatest excess death rate thus far. The best thinking is that there's not necessarily a greater risk simply by skin colour, but because of huge employment, housing, differences, as well as significant health differences.

Anyway it seems to me that it would be entirely illegal and direct race discrimination to keep ethnic minority people off work. Sure, if people have asthma or are 60 that would be reasonable, but you can't base your decision making on skin colour at all!

Age discrimination is not illegal and indeed it is sensible given that covid-19 discriminates very clearly on the basis of age. Sex discrimination is illegal, so that's probably not a good thing to do. Health and age should be the first priorities, and following the legal categories created by the government of 'shielding' people, even if other people might be at higher risk. Skin colour is not a legal risk factor!

I thought the equalities act made discrimination by sex, race and age illegal? (bar specific exemptions)

Two new cases of CV in NZ announced today.
Bot travelled in from the UK....

They're going to have to think strategically about Christmas.

Eg the Xmas heaving can't happen. Online stuff will go crazy.

They commented that the panic buying in food shops was akin to Xmas but they weren't prepared for that at that time.

Also, how many will break any SD to be able to let their hair down?

Things could have changed hugely of course by then but I'm not sure what.

It's going to be an interesting Xmas.

Interestingly, our local authority has created a risk assessment specifically detailing equalities from the EA. BAME had priority as a possible factor but still uncertain. Things like pregnancy were covered by clinically vulnerable risk assessment. Religion was obviously no risk.

Am I the only one who feels at odds with the term BAME? It's too broad a term to be useful (generally)? I'm white though so can't really comment. I've seen some people mention it as an issue on twitter.

I should add, we didn't keep anyone off work. We said that the expectation would be that while we didn't know recommendations of the report, anyone who felt at risk shouldn't come in to school. If you want to go in, you can do an individual risk assessment.

BAME people are currently in school as they were low risk on the risk assessment and wanted to come in.

Also, whether they are in or not, it makes no difference to the running of the school at the moment. We don't have space for other year groups, so that's that. September however....

@NeurotrashWarrior

Am I the only one who feels at odds with the term BAME? It's too broad a term to be useful (generally)? I'm white though so can't really comment. I've seen some people mention it as an issue on twitter.

No, I feel similarly.

Particularly now it is pronounced as a single word.

"Minority Ethinic" is a particularly strange category.

Answering my own question; note this is 5 years old and there are several references to low levels of employment and poverty, as well as stop and search rates. Chillingly prediction for the current climate.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/22/black-asian-minority-ethnic-bame-bme-trevor-phillips-racial-minorities

September however....

Quite.

I feel like there's two versions of September looming, as obviously heads are currently sorting out the Covid free parallel universe of teaching staff and classes.

And then Covid September...

Sorry you're right. age discrimination also illegal and covid-19 not a valid exception.

We desperately need trustable sources of information on children and transmission. Sweden missed an opportunity, but I notice that Germany are doing something. At the moment I can't see how we can go back full time in September, which is terrifying from both sides of the situation for me.

Religion was obviously no risk.

Religion in the form of churches, mosques and synagogues has been a very significant factor in the spread of covid-19. In some countries the refusal of religious people to stop gathering for religious events has hindered measures against covid-19

It had no risk in regards to our school environment.

This is unofficial but quite interesting measure of R by LA

r.winter.cx

Just announced that dexamethasone first drug to significantly improve outcomes

Dexamethasone is first life-saving coronavirus drug www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281