Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

All the contact tracers had to give personal info - passport, current bill etc etc for security checking. All the info already been hacked- doesn’t fill one with confidence.

Can somebody do the maths for me please?
Today's briefing said 28 deaths in England, 38 total in UK.
But Wales had 4, and zero in Scotland and NI.
So where are the other 6?

@BruceAndNosh

Can somebody do the maths for me please? Today's briefing said 28 deaths in England, 38 total in UK. But Wales had 4, and zero in Scotland and NI. So where are the other 6?

Here - courtesy of Twitter stats guru @rp131.

It's because they add yesterdays number for Scotland and Ireland with today's NHS numbers for England and Wales (hospital deaths), plus the adjustment from PHE for deaths outside hospital in England and Wales.

@PatriciaHolm thank you. I would never have worked that out!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/covid-19-can-damage-lungs-victims-beyond-recognition-expert-says

The [House of Lords] committee also heard from Prof Adrian Hayday, the chair of the department of immunobiology at King’s College London,

who supported arguments that socioeconomic factors were key to understanding why there had been high levels of infections among black and minority ethnic communities in the UK.

“In studies of patients in London hospitals, black, African, Asian and minority groups show higher rates of admission to hospital,
which shows they are more likely to have become infected under conditions where the virus dose is maybe high...

“But once they are in hospital they do just as well as anybody.

The hypothesis is they are disproportionately suffering from socioeconomic factors that make them more likely to receive high-frequency, high doses of infection.
That is not to say the hypothesis is correct, but it is perfectly valid until proven otherwise.”

Activities & risk:

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

Sources:
• Indoor vs outdoor https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v1.full.pdf…
• Duration/ventilation https://researchgate.net/publication/340418430AirborneetransmissionoffCOVID-19epidemiologiccevidencefrommtwooutbreakk_investigations…
• Proximity, masks (and check the studies used in the meta-analysis) https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext#%20…
• Singing https://cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm…
• Super-spreading https://researchsquare.com/article/rs-29548/v1

CDC: High SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm
....
Superspreading events involving SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have been reported.
.....
Following a 2.5-hour choir practice attended by 61 persons, including a symptomatic index patient,
32 confirmed and 20 probable secondary COVID-19 cases occurred (attack rate = 53.3% to 86.7%);
three patients were hospitalized,
and two died.

Transmission was likely facilitated by close proximity (within 6 feet) during practice and augmented by the act of singing.

What are the implications for public health practice?
The potential for superspreader events underscores the importance of physical distancing, including avoiding gathering in large groups, to control spread of COVID-19.

Enhancing community awareness can encourage symptomatic persons and contacts of ill persons to isolate or self-quarantine to prevent ongoing transmission.

That practically kills community events, choirs, theatres, life music...
I hope those people who develop materials are getting busy improving masks - make them "singable" so to speak.

Yes i was thinking months ago re the singing that kids doing xmas concerts certainly must spread the germs. In fact we were ill the week of xmas concert for nursery. Dd 4yo had fever then cough. I caught it and had chills fever cough fatigue.
Makes you wonder have many fewer ill GP and elderly we would have a year without the concert .
I assume southern hemisphere doesnt have these issues as its summer so may also be outside.

Isnt theatre doing live tv showings?

I expect children Xmas singing in elderly home will be a thing of the past.

Long-time lurker, fascinating thread.

I'm wondering about a "second wave". Looking at the Worldometer data for deaths and new cases in France, Italy, and Spain, there seems (to my uneducated eyes) to be no sign whatsoever of a second wave.

Is it too early to look for a second wave?

Thanks for that information and explanation bigchoc, saw it on twitter but hard to read.
France is now reporting clusters and that seems to be the focus going forward in trying to keep on top of the situation.These so far have been small ( in cases)but have around 100 of clusters. Also read something about cheese for vitamin K ( sounds good to me) and a self administered test with very fast results ( accuracy i dont know).

BigChocFrenzy - I can't help thinking German rates are also lower because German public buildings including hospitals are so very clean.

I wonder how the UK and Germany compare for MRSA for example? I was so shocked here when Brits had to be advised to wash their hands, when getting home, before eating, after using the toilet, etc.

Second wave seems to be who you ask.

Something I read in the guardian was musing more over whether it would be clusters and then a second wave or just a full on second wave, and the article wasn't even actually about a second wave.

I feel that if we have localised lockdowns it could prevent such a huge one, but the issue is the winter as, as the issue shown above, more people will stay inside.

Perhaps it's about whether we have a second lockdown that's implemented earlier and harder so that we get out sooner?

Sad to see NZ has had new cases, from the U.K.

Mentioned in here which is a thought provoking read

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/covid-19-can-damage-lungs-victims-beyond-recognition-expert-says?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Dirty air too - I notice the air quality and it's impact on my asthma locally. Lockdown had an amazing effect.

I've started following a local air quality twitter and noticed it's worse when my lungs are worse seasonally.

So could air pollution impact a second wave? Cars are certainly pretty much back to normal traffic here but I think there's interaction with air pressure etc,

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/16/coronavirus-uk-has-legal-duty-to-review-air-pollution-targets-say-lawyers?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

The Choir master was devastated when he realised that the practice had so many cases and sadly deaths from it. On USA TV in March when Trump was still in denial. He possibly still is!

"We are starting to give messages to countries and regions saying, if you are starting to have cases, in those cities where you have a high level of pollution, reinforce your level of preparedness, because you might have a higher mortality.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/is-air-pollution-making-the-coronavirus-pandemic-even-more-deadly?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Random google

"Cold air is denser and moves slower than warm air. This density means that cold air traps the pollution but also doesn't whisk it away. Air pollution in winter remains in place for much longer and therefore is breathed in at a higher rate than during the summer."

Don't localised clusters only stay that way/die out if track and trace is working well and people comply with new requests to self isolate and or local lockdowns?

I'm concerned that some countries may do better at that than the UK......

Yes, I imagine so. It's not going to be properly running till sept but at least in a way we have the summer on our side at the moment.

I do wonder about the warnings of raves though, and then they all hit the shops...

That appears to be the policy in France. Jumping on the cluster, testing and isolating. Seems to be working at the moment so far. I am now keeping a record of clusters.

It's the policy in Germany too
and our virologists think we may avoid a 2nd wave, maybe just a small winter increase on current v low deaths & cases

Probably depends on tightening up this winter, wrt crowds

• I wonder if Christmas markets will be banned, because they seem a similar risk to the carnivals that were early superspreader mass events here. Despite being outdoors, thousands of people rammed together for hours, shouting to be heard ....

OhtheRoses Children here are taught at an early age about handwashing and the schools are well-equipped with loos and sinks, more spacious school buildings generally, including classrooms

I've long thought it seems "cleaner" in public buildings here,
but also cleaning services have not been cut back over the years, as in the UK

ONS weekly update

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending5june2020#main-points

So looking at all deaths we're pretty much back to the 5 year average.