Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Was just coming to post that! Good news!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/steroid-found-to-help-prevent-deaths-of-sickest-coronavirus-patients?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Age is so dominant a risk factor that even being 10-15 years older would be riskier than all but the most serious health conditions,
let alone sex or race

Risk of dying from COVID, if infected, increases at 11–12% each year
==> risk doubles every 6–7 years
==> risk multiplies x ~ 8 every 20 years

==> a 50-year-old has ~ 8 x the risk of a 30-year-old
==> a 62-year-old has ~ 64 x the risk of a 22-year-old

Exellent news

dexamethasone appears to reduce damage of cytokine storm so helps the most serious cases,
but not the milder ones

Very significant:
"For patients on ventilators, it cut the risk of death from 40% to 28%.
For patients needing oxygen, it cut the risk of death from 25% to 20%."

Age was not listed on the equalities risk assessment. "Gender and gender reassignment" were lumped together. But that's another thread.

Claiming you are the other sex does not change risk of COVID

Maybe transmen on very heavy doses of testosterone could have slightly higher risk,
considering that study on increased risk for balding men

However, they would still retain the advantage of their double X-chromosone, which appears to play a greater role than hormones, considering that risk is sex-differentiated even for age 90+

Age was not listed on the equalities risk assessment. "Gender and gender reassignment" were lumped together.

^so the only two significant risk factors (age & sex) were not included what was the point of doing it?

Great news on dexamethasone. A cheap, available and well understood medication too.

This really shows the value of well run clinical trials like Recovery, over the sort of anecdotal reports we've been seeing. I was on a thread and people were calling for patients to be given drugs willy nilly just in case they helped, without appreciating that they could also potentially cause side-effects and worsen outcomes.

Ignoring age-dominated risk makes a complete mockery of any COVID risk assessment

Why on earth even bother about risks for those aged under say 50 of increasing 20% for some conditions,
or even 200% for more significant comorbidities, e.g. T1

..... when age alone increases the risk x 6,000 % for the very oldest vs very youngest staff ?

I was thinking that the whole thing was a knee jerk panicked exercise.

Apologies, it was recognised as a factor but there was no guidance so it would be updated accordingly re age.

It was gender and gender identity. even worse

So either sex was absent entirely or is "gender" but no extra risk identified. However I believe it's all from the government guidance and also to be reviewed as needed.

Are the figures out for today?

Age was not listed on the equalities risk assessment.

Age is on ours. Age, ethnicity, health issues (diabetes, asthma), BMI, gender erm, I think that's it.

@Spritztime

Are the figures out for today?

Yep another decrease compared to previous Tuesdays

93 deaths across the UK

That’s the preliminary figure.

Thank you @AlecTrevelyan006. That's positive.

What about confirmed cases? I never seem to be able to find the figures anywhere.

That's very low. Are the care home figures included? They're usually very tardy with those. But whatever, it's an encouraging indication after two low weekend days.

"gender" ?
SEX, SEX, SEX !
< awaits automatic application of MN porn filter >

It's a reversion to the days - which I'm ancient enough to remember - when some people were embarassed to use the word "sex" at all

Encouraging for Tuesday, but the rolling 7-day average shows the more reliable trend

233 all settings. 7 day rolling average down to 155.

@Spritztime positive tests announced 1,279.

.

Sorry for interjecting but does anyone know why Spain hasn't announced any deaths for the last two weeks?

Do you think it's just going to bobble along around 200 give or take 20, and people will just be desensitised to it? Is that reasonable to expect? 200 ish deaths a day?

The numbers are still falling slowly when you look at the rolling average. It looks like they'll fall a little more to below 200 ( as it's below that on average already), although that obviously depends on the impact of the lockdown changes and our response to new clusters.