Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Has there been any outbreaks in shops or supermarkets? I am frequently told that this is high risk but I have not known or heard of any outbreaks amongst shop staff.

Probably not since lockdown as the risk has been kept low. The expectation that people should keep 2m apart means that even if some don’t, they won’t tend to get much closer than that for more than a few second.

Much more concerning are the scrums outside some London stores this morning. I think the Government need to relax the 2m rule but compensate with mandatory face coverings. It’s pointless it being voluntary as those most likely to spread it are those who are least likely to wear a mask!

I think the Government need to relax the 2m rule but compensate with mandatory face coverings. It’s pointless it being voluntary as those most likely to spread it are those who are least likely to wear a mask!

Agree

"Has there been any outbreaks in shops or supermarkets?"

None in Germany since relaxing lockdown, even thouh all shops have been open for weeks now

BUT
the outbreaks after those large family parties were allowed caused several schools and kindergardens in that area to be closed

• they'll remain closed for iirc 14 days

Outbreaks in meat plants have also caused school closures, but more locally than the parties,
as the workers normally live in the close vicinity and their DC to school locally

Always been 1.5m in Germany

• will probably be dropped completely for schools here from late August, but I don't know if that's just schools.

Masks compulsory wherever 1.5m cannot be kept for indoor premises

Optional masks for students & staff in schools
and imo there has been far too much anxiety about teachers in masks not being able to do their job - they manage ok in Germany and the kids are used to seeing masks, so just accept it

I hope this is taken into account when unlocking measures are made. I'm thinking that things like singing, gyms, sports classes, school PE, nightclubs, dance classes etc would need to be considered.

In that case theatre is fucked.

@Mybrowneyedgal

Has there been any outbreaks in shops or supermarkets? I am frequently told that this is high risk but I have not known or heard of any outbreaks amongst shop staff.

I know in early March there were cases traced back to a shop in Radstock. Sure there must be others.

@BigChocFrenzy do you think that activity in the gym is less likely to increase the risk of transmission than group singing?

Chaotic In my heavy lifting classes, it's often group farting especially when the vegans attend 😂

Sorry, I don't know
I'd have thought we breathe much more heavily than singers

I don't attend church anyway, because I'm agnostic

It is interesting though that gyms - so far - have had no outbreaks here, but several churches have

Most unusual - WHO warning the Uk about its lack of effective contact tracing:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/14/who-cautions-against-further-lifting-lockdown-england

.... coronavirus lockdown should not be further lifted until the government’s contact-tracing system has proven to be “robust and effective”
....
Dr Hans Kluge, the WHO’s director for Europe, cautioned that the UK remained in a “very active phase of the pandemic”.

It might be that singing uses deeper breathing (diaphragmatic if you do it right) so from lower in respiratory tract?

It might just be the age profile of worshippers vs gymgoers, in the absence of large scale randomised testing.
Older churchgoers will be more likely to be symptomatic and get tested, and younger, slimmer, fitter people at the gym (typically, there are exceptions both ways obviously) will be more likely to remain asymptomatic at the same viral load.

Our local Lidl got shut for a weekend because loads of the staff came down with covid. No idea if it came from a customer or elsewhere tho. Think they just shuffled staff from other stores to fill the gaps, and reopened the following week.

There does seem to be some evidence that singing is particularly high risk - www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/did-singing-together-spread-coronavirus-to-four-choirs

It's a shame for me as I'm a much keener singer than I am gym-goer!

Yes the WHO warning is concerning. Hard to know why the contact tracing isn't robust yet - is it IT teething issues? (they certainly had some), people being too sick to answer phones or fill in online forms? People refusing to self isolate because they need to work to earn money? People naming others as contacts but the contacts not believing that they're really at any risk? I assume they'll be collecting some of this info, and it has only been running a couple of weeks, so you'd hope it would improve. I wonder whether they'll start to use a bit more force with people who won't comply - the legislation they passed allows them to.

@Mybrowneyedgal

Has there been any outbreaks in shops or supermarkets? I am frequently told that this is high risk but I have not known or heard of any outbreaks amongst shop staff.

Wasn't there one months ago in a Lidl somewhere?

@BigChocFrenzy

Most unusual - WHO warning the Uk about its lack of effective contact tracing:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/14/who-cautions-against-further-lifting-lockdown-england

.... coronavirus lockdown should not be further lifted until the government’s contact-tracing system has proven to be “robust and effective”
....
Dr Hans Kluge, the WHO’s director for Europe, cautioned that the UK remained in a “very active phase of the pandemic”.

I get where WHO are coming from, and think it's shocking that in the world of tech and mobile devices and media, no one can get their head round a tracing app.

But I'm quite wary of them too, I still don't trust them after the suggestions they were pretty slow to report the pandemic

I also think what one of them said from WHO that this could be here for 5 years means we do need to try and live amongst it or there will be literally no jobs, industry or anything left. Kids need to be in school, shops need to be own widely (barely any bothered where I am) and we need to except it's this or very serious consequences. We know far more now than at the start.

todays figures actually look pretty good. Positive tests have levelled off but hospital admissions are still going down except for Wales. Of course it could be a time lag and they'll all be in hospital next week but I suspect there are more younger people getting tested, not getting it badly and so not being a burden on the hospitals. Now we have to wait a week or two to see if their parents and grandparents get it from them.

Scotland could open up faster than England, Wales needs to be more cautious. But if Scotland hold on a bit they could be opening up everything because they are closer to eliminating the virus.

I wonder if the problem with contact tracing is lack of experience by those doing it and trying to build up this organisation from scratch

Even 10 years ago, the UK had 10,000 environmental health staff based at nearly 350 local council offices.
They had expertise in contact tracking for previous diseases, food poisoning etc,
but they were cut back to 226 staff operating out of 9 offices.

Countries like Germany had retained these skilled public health workers,
so they were able to rapidly expand capacity in March & April,
taking in many other local public officers from all fields - again spare capacity available there -
with the experienced staff supervising them.

Completely new staff were also recruited and trained, but were then working for team leaders who knew their job

As with mass testing and labs, large scale-contact tracing is much more effective when organised and performed by local authorities

Unfortunately, the UK is one of the most heavily centralised of all democracies
and all aspects of the response to this crisis seem to be centralised too

Even 10 years ago, the UK had 10,000 environmental health staff based at nearly 350 local council offices.
They had expertise in contact tracking for previous diseases, food poisoning etc,
but they were cut back to 226 staff operating out of 9 offices.

Holy shit

10,000 to 226. That's not just fewer, that's different.

Austerity did so much damage to our society and our ability to cope.

in the world of tech and mobile devices and media, no one can get their head round a tracing app

It's almost as if giving your mates contracts for things they don't really know anything about is a bad idea. But you know, the Tories still keep doing it.

Personally I wouldn't go anywhere near an app developed by any of Cummings' mates, and not many people I know would either. No data security, and information given to known liars and cheats.

Can anybody tell me where you can find the current U.K. Covid alert level? I have googled but can only find newspaper articles which state what it was a few days ago. I’m hoping it’s really simple to find and I’m just being silly!

Nihiloxica We pay a lot of tax in Germany, but all main parties postwar had a consensus that public services must be kept to a good standard,
paid for by taxes, not borrowing

There are 400 local administrative authorities in Germany, which receive massive budgets from central govt taxation for public health, health services, schools etc

• budgets which have increased in real terms nearly every year.

Schools are well-equipped, especially wrt loos and sinks
They have received a lot of extra money for deep cleans etc but staff have to buy their own PPE if they want it.
Classrooms are pretty spacious, especially considering the smaller class size and afaik teachers don't have to buy any supplies out of their own money.

So getting kids back to school / education has been easier and was prioritised:
each group has school half the week and online classes the rest of the week, but some schools are already ft and probably all will be after the summer vacation

The level of healthcare is noticeably homogeneous around the country, no postcode lottery
Also, rationing has never been a part of the health system here,
which is why all COVID cases were treated fully from the earliest stages, including home visits, which is a factor in the low death rate.

butterside Afaik, the Uk has not officially moved down from level 4 to 3, because the level can only be set by the CMO, not the govt
So this chart is probably now in a dusty cellar somewhere

Reports are that Whitty & Valance are on the brink of resigning over the 2m,
so a new CMO may be chosen who will be more amenable to setting the desired low alert level, as well as 1m

Merkel overruled her chief virologist, Christian Drosten, by relaxing lockdown and opening schools on 4 May:
he and some others wanted lockdown to stay until R0 was 0.2 or 0.3, whereas other scientists wanted particularly to open schools.

He accepted amicably enough that she had to consider economy & education, not just public health
However, he does express high respect for Merkel's performance and there is no question about who is in charge - she doesn't thump the table, but she's the boss
And she was right to relax lockdown; we're doing fine so far.