Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The Centre for Towns thinktank (founded by Lisa Nandy) was analysing the last GE and noted that
many of the now de-industrialised areas in Northern England have seen a huge demographics change over the last 20+ years,
with young people moving out and the % of elderly rising sharply

This is significant enough to increase COVID death rates in those areas

PHE weekly surveillance infographic is out. A plateau in admissions with Covid-19

Although lower than a week ago

I'm not sure if this has been linked already. It's the Google mobility reports.

www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

It gives a breakdown of how much time people are spending in places like parks, transport hubs, supermarkets, etc by country and by region.

Well against the spirit of data and info, but anecdotally of those working age left in the NE, many have worked through the lockdown in manufacturing. Yes, the office staff have been working from home, but many have still been off to keep the factories going.

The South Wales Valleys have generally older and sicker populations than average, unfortunately, which ties in with those data for the NE @BigChocFrenzy. And probably provides a large part of the explanation, if not all, for the Cwm Taf Health Board metrics

I dont know why everyone thinks there is rising cases in north east. I live in south tyneside which is one of worst areas... Today we have no new cases or deaths. We have had several days over past week with no deaths and only 1 or 2 new cases a day. Sunderland has no new cases today either

Jrob Teesside is still seeing new cases, and more deaths. 3 today, 3 yesterday, 2 the day before that, I believe

With over 46,000 Covid on death certificates, a population of 66 million and antibody tests showing 7% infections, with infection rates roughly spread broadly evenly across age demographics, this gives a case fatality rate of c.1%. (Of excess deaths are used as a proxy, the figure is higher still).

That would give 660,000 deaths across the UK. Assuming 75% is required for herd immunity, that gives 500,000 deaths if we let it go through the population. This suggests Ferguson’s estimate on numbers back in March wasn’t far from the mark, even if a full lockdown wasn’t necessarily required to achieve significant suppression.

Infection rate is spread through age groups but fatalities isn’t. Applying a blanket risk across all age groups is too general and leads to overestimation of deaths. There are considerable less 80+ than 1-45 yr olds.

@BigChocFrenzy

"1000 times NO. BAME people are NOT dying in significant numbers.

Exactly
For deaths, AGE is absolutely dominant and only a v small % of BAME people are very elderly

COVID is overwhelmingly killing v elderly white people

Young and middle-aged Black people and certain Asian groups may be at higher risk than whites of the same age - and we have to consider occupation risk distorting that too -
but very few of any colour are dying under age 45
(and almost no children)

London does have a much higher % infected obviously, because it's a world city with a huge number of international connections and an 8 million pop

However, because of its high % BAME - and hence younger - population,
London probably has a lower death rate of those infected than other areas of England

I don't quite understand how if age is the biggest factor, according to ICNARC the median age is 60? with almost 50% mortality? It appears that middle age is more dangerous according to their stats?

I appreciate a lot of the very elderly won't be put through intensive care but lot of 70 plus year old seem to be missing?
The distribution of age and sex is presented in Figure 6. The distribution of ethnicity, matched on 2011 census ward for location of patients critically ill with COVID-19, is presented in Figure 7.

0.9
1.9
4.2
8.4 8.4
4.5
0.61.2
3.9
9.5
19.8
21.3
13.3
1.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
16-30 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
%
Age at admission
Females critically ill with COVID-19 Males critically ill with COVID-19
© ICNARC 2020

Figure 6 Age and sex distribution of patients critically ill with confirmed COVID-19
66

Sorry it wouldn't let me edit quote or past a graph apparently.

@oralengineer

I completely agree it’s a blunt tool and recognise it’s a mean.... and for most the risk is far lower than 1%, but as a headline rate i think it’s still useful in assessing the risk relative to other illnesses such as the flu and for estimating total potential deaths. There are still some people who insist it’s no worse than the flu.

ICNARC is a selected group of people admitted to icu. Many elderly and frail people will not go to ITU

But for a large percentage of the population it is no worse than flu. Having been triaging patients for the last few weeks I’ve found that the age groups who have the least risk are the most risk averse.Lack of life experience and inability to risk assess they have become overly risk averse and it will take a long time to talk them down.
It was an effective way of enforcing lockdown but as more information becomes available I think it is important to make it clear that for the younger age groups they had overestimated the risk. Perhaps not just yet. Fear is a very powerful tool.

Thanks @cathyandclare

with infection rates roughly spread broadly evenly across age demographics

Definitely not. Many care homes will have got herd immunity. 20% of deaths are hospital acquired infections AIR.

The former group will be all old, the latter disproportionately so.

The ONS stats explicitly exclude care homes, which is a bit shit when they have been most of the deaths for weeks.

Infection stats that is.

"But for a large percentage of the population it is no worse than flu."

Yes, v v low risk for children and pretty low for young adults

However, from about age 45+ the risk of dying if infected with COVID becomes more significant, especially with comorbidities
and definitely from 65+ which is a good chunk of the population

The Association of Actuaries have been monitoring mortality rates:

Any opinions from this group on Independent SAGE and their document that schools should not reopen on 1st June?

www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Independent-Sage-Brief-Report-on-Schools-5.pdf

But when DO you open the schools?
Proper testing and tracing ain't gonna happen.
The damage to kids and their parents by being out of school for even longer
outweighs their risk of COVID
and yes more parents may need to work from home to reduce pressure on grandparents
but that is going to happen even if the schools are shut

when WOULD these people have the schools open?
bearing in mind most of them will have gone to well resourced private schools so have no real concept of what is really not-- going on.

The exaggerated fear for children is a natural consequence of a society which would involve SS
and get parents into serious trouble for risking 1 in a million chances of
e.g. spontaneous combustion if left briefly at home, or abduction if sent to the local shops

Very different from my 1960s childhood - and not all changes are improvements for kids

imo, teachers are mainly concerned for their own welfare, as their average age is about 40 and it is claimed that up to 30% of them are vulnerable in some way (an extraordinary figure )

However, they also seem to believe from their training that almost any risk is unacceptable and would e.g. report if a 6-year-old walked or took the bus on their own to school
whereas this is expected in most Germanic and iirc Nordic countries, as a part of a child developing independence & competence in everyday life

It is normal here (germany) to see small children playing outside their gardens without adults, in pedestrian areas.

imo, countries that allow children more freedom like this are less worried at the idea of school return, as they are used to judging small necessary risks

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves

I was referring to the ONS stats here:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england14may2020#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

But hadn’t appreciated they didn’t include Carr homes. However, given that only 4% of over 65s live in care homes, their omission may not distort the figures that much...... (though appreciate that % will rise in over 80-90s).

Care homes not Carr homes!

BCF that does say over 60k?
bloody hell!