Do you reckon we could go on lockdown again

[Italianmoma1983]

If there is another spike ? I’m happy to go back to work but also scared and I can’t really explain why. I’m young and healthy so not really at risk...just a bit scared to leave my bubble

This sums it up better then I could put in words...

Absolutely. If I was putting money on it I would say October.

Our hospitals have coped. And they have further capacity to cope.

Alice (and anyone else who says yes) do you think they would extend furlough again to do it? And for how long.

I reckon opening schools will cause a peak, and I would be very surprised if we get to September without another lockdown. Here is why..

Literature suggests children spread it like adults (most the research that argued children didnt spread it had huge flaws in methodology and limitations... but people dont read the limitations sections, not realising flawed research can and does get published on the understanding that academics can critically evaluate it).
The BIG issue with children being as infectious as adults is that that current literature suggests they dont display systems as severly or as often (one piece reported that on testing children, they were displaying viral loads equivalent to very ill adults while remaining asymptomatic). Which although they are not directly more infectious, there lack of symptoms means they will come into contact with a lot more people before the adults around them start becoming ill; then a adult with a equivalent viral load. So in this sense they are potentially more dangerous spreaders of Covid as they are able to do it covertly, whereas adults would get ill and hence start to isolate a lot sooner. Also I read some research which suggests that children have 4x the amount of social contacts compared to adults (which is easy to see really), which would also allude to them spreading it much quicker and further then adult equivalents.

But ignore the risk of a second wave, I find it very concerning that evidence of a Kawasaki like disease is being reported and people are going... well it's only a few children etc etc.. well wasnt that the attitude about the very first few cases of Covid and we can see the figures that show us how that turned out........ 😟😟

Literature suggests children spread it like adults (most the research that argued children didnt spread it had huge flaws in methodology and limitations... but people dont read the limitations sections, not realising flawed research can and does get published on the understanding that academics can critically evaluate it).

Can you please post a link to the 'un-flawed' research suggesting that children spread covid19 like adults? Thanks.

@oneandtwenty Your understanding of mental health problems is severely defective.

Unnecessary fear and hysteria is not the way to solve this. Social media is fuelling it as well.
We all have a duty to not pass our paranoia on to our children (NB this differs from passing on basic hygiene rules and encouraging them to use their brains). They will have to live with this for longer than we will and we need them to feel secure, relaxed and happy, not paranoid and hysterical. I actually genuinely fear for the long-term effects on children if the adults don't get their act together

Well said, @Angelil

As for the 'well, you'll have to pay the fines for not complying, then' rejoinder: am I really going to tell anyone IRL that I'm not complying, other than the people who are not complying along with me?

Well this is optimistic in here. I think hospitals will prepare doesn't mean it will happen literally means nothing.

Oh no that won't happen no second lockdown will happen.

@MarginalGain Because we would have both corona and flu so more beds needed in hospitals that already have no beds. Or do you mean we dont shut down the UK normally because we have no beds?

That is true, and maybe we wont go back into lockdown we will just accept our elderly and vunerable dying. At least with flu we can vaccinate and keep numbers down, protect the majority of the vunerable population.

The problem is theres so many unknowns still. I think what strategy we follow very much depends on whether we can get a vaccination

Our hospitals have coped. But they wouldnt have without lockdown.

If we could come out of lockdown slowly then I think we will be fine, but we dont seem to be able to. Groups of about 20 adults today in our parks, sitting around drinking.

Yes and we almost definitely will. We'll come out, the death toll will rise again, we'll go back into lockdown and repeat until eventually we keep the cases and deaths minimal.

I think given how long it took the Gov to act, how difficult some people found our 'lockdown' and how quickly people are being released from it another wave is pretty much inevitable. Whereas if we could hold the line a few more weeks it would buy us time to test, contact trace and quarantine individuals as needed. It's very frustrating.

The Hammer and the Dance piece in Medium is excellent.

@OneandTwenty

it has never been the rules that you couldn't stay outside of their house if you respected social distancing. It's not ideal, but it's better than nothing

Yes it was! The old rules were do not leave your house unless you are going to essential work or buy essential supplies. So therefore going to have a chat in someone’s garden was not a valid reason to leave your house. The new rules specifically say do not socialise in houses or gardens. It’s 1 person meets 1 person in a public place.

I think there will be a more localised approach to restrictions. There won’t be any kind of national lockdown again as we simply could not fund it.

I don't think so. The people who aren't following the rules were likely never following the rules and the rest of us will be as visulant and cautious as ever.

@OneandTwenty

Ihaven't stopped working and no-one I know has.
I can buy anything online, buy non-contact for all the local shops, and many shops have completely reopened here.
I have to stick to walking and driving to visit things, and watch tv instead of going to the movies.
I have never stopped being able to see local friends at distance

So yes, it's pretty shit and I don't want to dwell on the holidays we have already cancelled and the travel I can't do. But it's not remotely the house arrest people claims it is, and I really don't want it to become stricter and lose out on my summer.

Like most people, I have cancelled all my annual leave so far and really hope to be able to take them in the summer!

Really? Well that's jolly nice for you! I live on my own, am self employed and by boyfriend lives 14 miles away with his two kids. He may as well be on the moon. My mum is 200 miles away (also on her own and I am extremely worried about her mental state) and so is my sister and her family in the other direction (5 people in a 3 bedroom terraced house, small garden). My business has been completely halted and I have no idea when it can start again, my hobbies were sports based at the leisure centre (shut obviously) and none of my good friends are in walking distance. However they all have their families who are unlikely to want a single person to be the other household they link with in the case of these bloody social bubbles.

I am glad you are finding the lockdown so pleasant. Personally I cannot stand much more of it.

Sorry about my hyperbole. You did say you were finding it shit. And I know it's not a race to the bottom.

Our hospitals [will] not have capacity to deal with extra coronavirus cases in winter.

I reckon all the non-emergency care will be stopped, again. Like now.
all preventive & routine care unless it literally is needed to stop immediate death. All the targets are gone & the whole hospital staff will be framed around dealing with any infections. I also reckon that majority of British population will support this, even if it goes on for a few years.

It's not always simple to compare - lets keep this a kind place to be

Yes I definitely think it will spike again as soon as they open the shops!

MarshaBradyo I don’t think they would.
Primarily because it is not sustainable on such a large scale.
And a lot of businesses will simply not be able to continue with their existing model.
Two of my clients have started taking advice on makings their staff redundant. And they will start the process next week. It is absolutely clear they will have zero trade for at least 6months so they can’t keep anyone on because there simply is no business and cannot adapt to anything else at present.
But other businesses may be able to readjust their trade. And businesses who didn’t need to close to start with may remain open next time around as they might be able to continue trading (garden centres are a prime example). Some businesses on reduced trade could offer reduced hours or wages to match the businesses’s profitability.

But the society at large really, really needs to get on board with the idea that personal responsibility is key, common sense should be used all the time and all businesses must implement safety measures (HSE and Medical Whatever Board and local authorities must draw up clear and concise plans). The money should be spent in implementing concrete preventative measures.

However, a second wave would hopefully be contained with more flexibility to actually going to work.

I reckon all the non-emergency care will be stopped, again. Like now.
all preventive & routine care unless it literally is needed to stop immediate death. All the targets are gone & the whole hospital staff will be framed around dealing with any infections. I also reckon that majority of British population will support this, even if it goes on for a few years.

But we can’t keep stopping preventative and routine care. Surely very few people would support that going on indefinitely, it smacks of ‘we must stop Covid-19 at any cost, anyone else is collateral damage’

But why would you treat and support one illness, say cancer, and not treat and support another , say covid?

If you get to the situation we were in during March, you have few options. Either you deal with the short term urgent problems , pushing the slightly less urgent to one side. or you leave the critically unsupported, dying when they could have been saved, leaving them in pain when they could have been treated

Or you somehow magic up a load of fully trained doctors and nurses from the magic hospital tree

A lot of people won't tolerate another lockdown, so no it won't be as effective

Doctor friends I know expect second wave in October