Do you reckon we could go on lockdown again

[Italianmoma1983]

If there is another spike ? I’m happy to go back to work but also scared and I can’t really explain why. I’m young and healthy so not really at risk...just a bit scared to leave my bubble

For our economy and society (and health service) to keep rolling along as close to normal as possible, we must have very low levels of virus circulating. This means everyone trying very hard to avoid spreading or catching the virus, regardless of whether they themselves are more at risk.

It needn't mean extreme social distancing, so long as we only relax restrictions gradually, once we're sure local rates are low, and don't get ahead of ourselves and all stop trying before local rates are low and testing is working. Lockdown is temporary, but if, say, all the people under 50 stop bothering with any precautions other than washing their hands, then it might have to come back.

It can't just be about individuals assessing their own risk. Look at all the cancer consultants who are aged over 50 - they can't suddenly stay at home, if you want people to carry on getting cancer treatments. Look at all the grandparents who provide childcare so people can work - they can't do that if there's lots of virus circulating. We need a collective effort to avoid catching and spreading the virus, regardless of what our own individual risks might be. That's how we'll keep rates low, and when testing and tracking kicks in, we'll be able to squash local outbreaks fast, and keep them low.

The lockdown isn't to prevent deaths from Covid19 in the long run. No one can do that, unfortunately.

I understand that, but we cannot stay locked down indefinitely, we cannot socialise indefinitely. There will come a point where a lot of people will understandably refuse to comply. What happens then?

I think a second lockdown is hugely unlikely. Perhaps at a local level in specific areas, but I'm certain this is last national one.

Agree hugely unlikely/ people will tolerate it. The more evidence that emerges showing the infinitesimal risk to the working population shoes that the wrong people were being locked down all along. The Gvt did too good a job scaring people and they won't be fooled again.
The R number that the armchair experts are spouting endlessly is nonsense -it is a theoretical model that has no meaning.

I don't think a second lockdown would fly either

You might not have been asking for @PhilCornwall1 's individual circumstances, @Flaxmeadow, but it wouldn't harm to show at least a smidgeon of understanding or sympathy.

I am also collateral damage in this stupid lockdown. As a result, my children are too.

The R number is a function not just of the virus but also of the the social/cultural/geographical etc environment in which the virus exists
The variables which feed into the R number are multiple and they interact in complex ways

The virus has exposed far too many things that governments do not want their populations to focus on
Because this is a worldwide situation it's much harder for individual governments to cover-up and fool their populations
Because of electronic communications nothing can be kept quiet anymore, the only way for them to stay in power is to try and contaminate the discourse with misinformation, of course this often backfires, there are multiple unintended and unforeseen consequences which then go on to trigger further unintended and unforeseen consequences

I doubt it tbh People are fed up of this one. And I just think we would see massive ignoring if they tried it again
People need to go to work. Bills need paying The economy needs to be kept going
those are the cold hard facts

And boris and his pals know it

I would definitely ignore another one! Just give people the facts and let their own decisions.

The government want us to work anyway so I doubt they’ll do a reversal on that to go through the pain of re-releasing it slowly again.

I don't think the government can afford another business bail out scheme so another lockdown would be unlikely. Social distancing, work from home where possible, yes. But lockdown like this with pubs, cinemas, restaurants etc closed - I doubt it.

The R number that the armchair experts are spouting endlessly is nonsense -it is a theoretical model that has no meaning.

I'm not sure scientists and researchers who completed 8+ years of higher education plus years and years of active experience working would be armchair experts... and I'm not talking about the governments questionable science but all the independent researchers and scientists who have no conflict of interest and have been largely ignored...

People seem to think their right to make there own decision and choices regarding lockdown is synonymous with their right to through that endanger the lives of other people. This is not the case. It's like the decision to not vaccinate your child, that's "your right", but is it correct when it puts a child with compromised immune system or allergies to vaccines at risk and potential death? I actually recently had this happen to a friend who child was in icu due to children in her class not being vaccinated and going into school with preventable illness. It seems their right to make a choice, is more important then a little childs right to be protected from illness and death....

If we let the virus run rampant, ignoring the huge death toll that will unquestionably happen... what about all the adults and children who wouldnt be able to attend school/work due to the risk? Would they just be forgotten about and left to it? And is that ultimately fair? When if the virus is got under some semblance of control, with adequate testing and track and trace these people could go back to work/school?

It's like the decision to not vaccinate your child, that's "your right", but is it correct when it puts a child with compromised immune system or allergies to vaccines at risk and potential death?

It's not at all like vaccinations, which can be easily confirmed as effective in mature, established double-blind clinical trials, having side effects that are absolutely dwarfed by the benefits both in terms of quality life years and cost.

Vaccinations have been filtered though the wisdom of the ages - they are demonstrably the greatest public health success story of all time.

That is nothing like lockdown, which does not have scientific consensus, is not easily confirmed in clinical trials, the costs almost certainly outweigh the benefits, and is a marked deviation from normal pandemic public policy which is to quarantine the vulnerable.