The R is close to 1 already

[Realitea]

Just had a worrying update from sky news
Anyone else seen this?
The official estimate has risen slightly over the last week according to SAGE

Yes just seen this. They are saying due to care joke spread they think

Care home

Hopefully they’ll be questioned about this today

But there's still staff going in and out, bit concerning whatever. It shouldn't be that way in care homes but that's a separate thread 😔

I guess it is it makes me so sad to think of those poor people in homes, the fear and not being able to see their families breaks my heart

It'll be over 1 before the end of the week.

Was that across the country or by region? I’m concerned because we are in the NE where the R is higher.

It's confusing that London's number seem to be reducing apple.news/AQChr2oq-SKqjEdQMD53_xQ but the R rate seems to be going up. Does this mean cases in London might go up too? Worrying because public transport is going to increase next week isn't it?

It seems that R in London is significantly lower than elsewhere. Not seen any explanation of why though.

Surely the R is calculated by what is happening in the community Care homes included would distort the figure ?

Maybe the mass VE day street parties have contributed too

It is Rosie, but there's still staff coming and going. Same with hospital admissions staff have to go home, not every member of staff gets ppe (me). Even though we have a small cluster of our team all postive this week. I'd like to say this is a blip and hope it is

It would always overstate the guesstimated R, which would be a protective margin of error.

They may be seeing some of the first infections resulting from VE day parties.

Too early for that, Judy.

Or it could be as a result of the massive increase in testing, and those results are now filtering through.

Surely the R is calculated by what is happening in the community Care homes included would distort the figure ?

I fully agree with the theory but Patrick Vallance mentioned at one of the briefings that they are usually referring to the aggregated R0 that includes transmissions in the community and care homes.

The government is very wary of perception that they are disregarding / de-prioritising care home transmissions but the reality is you address two issues separately. Care home spread can and should be minimised through extensive and frequent testing of residents and personnel. Community transmissions are managed through social distancing and - in the worst case - lockdown.

London is lower, because London is further ahead in the curve than most of the rest of the UK.

It remains to be seen if it stays that way now.

@wonderstuff

I would assume because London got hit first didn't it - so would make sense for us to be ahead now as well because more people probably caught we it stuffed on tubes for the month after feb half term after everyone came back from skiing. So more people in community are now immune compared to other areas.

O don’t worry according to another post on MN today London will be virus free by the end of the month!! So Sod the rest of us 🤣🤣🤣

Are we really surprised that people are no longer staying home , and the R rate has increased?

The Mayor or Council Leader from Gateshead has said their R is 1.1 and has advised residents to ignore the governments "Lert" advice and stick with "Stay Home".

Gets it all over with then