The R is close to 1 already

[Realitea]

Just had a worrying update from sky news
Anyone else seen this?
The official estimate has risen slightly over the last week according to SAGE

[SodaSloth]

Funny that London R rate is lower, the very place the banks, stock exchange etc are.

Also the R rate is a week behind according to journalist who was on sky just the briefing started can't remember his name

[MarshaBradyo]

Yes I agree Nellodee it will be lumpy and some areas will push it up. London is low reportedly which is different to this thread.

[MarshaBradyo]

Not definitive yet though of course. We may see a rise due to relaxation.

[MarshaBradyo]

Hancock said the R rate is based on a survey they did 2 weeks ago. So this is not what it is now. It might be even higher

That’s pertinent information thanks, I did not know it was lagged

[wintertravel1980]

Yes, looks like the government has once again fallen into the simplification trap. They have already been there with "Stay at home".

R0 may (and will) go up and down and it is necessary to understand both the details and the general context. The headline is important (i.e. R0 over 1 over an extended period of time is bad) but it does not give the whole story.

Increase in R0 does not mean the lockdown is not working.

[Eyewhisker]

Not only is R based on data from 2-3 weeks, and disproportionately reflecting the situation in care homes, R is still in a range 0.7 to 1 so 1 is the very top of the range.

[CoronaLonaSad]

Well the government don't care. They have capacity in the NHS now so they will let the cases rise again until we r close to capacity again, then lockdown for a few weeks, then start again ...

They want her immunity and this is their strategy

[thedancingbear]

^Even if the R rate is .99, that would be really good news.

Considering the severity and length of the lockdown, 0.99 isn't good news at all. It means that it'll go above 1 at the slightest hint of a relaxation of the lockdown restrictions. It needs to be a lot lower to be considered good news.^

I meant that an R of below 1 is good in general, rather than at this point in time. If we were in full lockdown and the R was still nearly .99, we'd be in deep shit

[maresydoats]

UK well England is either on the way to herd immunity or not. Which is it?

I know it is a difficult task, but wonder sometimes.

And our teachers need to be protected also. But hey they are only childcare facilities for a good many people. Disgraceful.

Oh God, this is a tough time.

[CoronaLonaSad]

Sorry .. 'herd'

[Chig]

I think the VE Day street parties may have contributed to this.

Our street party was awful, no social distancing. We stayed well away.

[TerrapinStation]

Maybe the mass VE day street parties have contributed too

Waaaaaaaay too early for any kind of effect from VE day, how with the absolute slew of information available about transmission times and how statistical data is reported does anyone still think this could be the case less than a week later.

I despair.

[Bagelsandbrie]

I have a suspicion that even if the R does go above 1 they might say it’s now on the way down or will be soon and keep going with easing the lockdown, herd immunity and all that. I don’t think they’ll stop unless it dramatically leaps up.

[user68901]

TerrapinStation - exactly! There was a thread about Boris and obesity- clearly half the posters had absolutely NO clue of the context.

[Gwynfluff]

only childcare facilities for a good many people

schools have always been interdependent with societal need. It’s no different now. And yes in the last 20-30 years it’s been necessary to be dual income and a reliance on kids in school with wraparound care to make that happen.

[Bluewarbler27]

Apparently the data is 3 weeks old.

[MiniTheMinx]

LarkDescending, thank you for the link, it made sense of what I intuitively think but didn't have the theory to explain. The modelling is not reflective of the facts.
I don't think its helpful for anyone to suggest that the overall R is pushed up by transmission rates in hospital or care homes if it's used as an excuse for pushing for greater or quicker relaxation of social distancing and lockdown. Hospitals and care homes are not hermetically sealed separate communities.

[Witchend]

We are nowhere near herd immunity.
For there to be herd immunity there needs to be 80% immune.

We haven't yet had confirmation that getting it once means you're immune for a start off.

But let's assume it does mean that (and it doesn't mutate enough to get round that).
The official figures are around 200k in a country of population 60million.
Lets say 10 times as many people have had it as the official figures. That's still only around 3%.
If 100 times as many people have had it, then 30% have had it which isn't halfway there yet.

[sonjadog]

It is far too early to have any results from VE day parties. Secondly, the R will go up and down, it isn't just going to go down smoothy. Thirdly, while the R today ay be higher than that based on data from a few weeks ago, it might also be lower. No need to despair.

[SusieOwl4]

The figures take a while to come through . They are on a time lag .

[Devlesko]

We will be back where we started in a fortnight, I'm surprised anyone would think differently.
The change in reporting figures and the lack of clarity in guidance was intentional.
It's still being considered as herd immunity, gov just aren't saying this anymore.
Those that can/will stay in, will be ok, hopefully.
Those who have to/choose to are the ones they want/need to catch it.

[ritatherockfairy]

The "R" measured today tells you how the virus was behaving 2 weeks ago. Will be interesting to see where it is in two weeks time.

We are a long way from herd immunity. I think the mass testing results published yesterday suggested 1 in 400 people have had it. I thought herd immunity needed that to go up to 60%

[psychomath]

Witchend if by 'official figures' you're talking about the ONS report from the other day, the estimate was that 180,000 people are currently infected and caught the virus within the last two weeks. Obviously a lot more people than that will have had it previously and recovered. I agree that we're currently nowhere close to herd immunity nationally though.

[ritatherockfairy]

Apologies to @Witchend - you put that much better than I did

[psychomath]

Sorry, that should have said 148,000 (in England), not 180,000.