The R is close to 1 already

[Realitea]

Just had a worrying update from sky news
Anyone else seen this?
The official estimate has risen slightly over the last week according to SAGE

[Pumpkinpie1]

It’s the responsibility of the government to govern not evade responsibility by playing divide & rule. Repeatedly Ministers have ignored their own safety guidelines, lied and mislead the public blaming them rather than accept any responsibility
No one wants to be locked down & making snide remarks about those of us in vulnerable households is extremely offensive

[MiniTheMinx]

wintertravel1980 I agree that would be a good strategy. However people are reporting that they are waiting 2 weeks for their test results.

[Luddite26]

My husband started with symtoms on 13th March and my symptoms didn't start till 3rd April! That's 21 days difference so OP referring to your hospital stay 5 days isn't very long for symtoms to show or you can can be asymptomatic.

[wintertravel1980]

So much is written about testing - but it is not accurate.

The later you perform the test, the less accurate it is. People in hospitals might have been infected for a while and C19 is much harder to detect at advanced stages of infection. For hospital admissions, lung scans may actually be more reliable than traditional swab tests.

Tests performed within 5 days from the start of infection appear to give much more accurate results.

[Noextremes2017]

To answer my own question - a very questionable one!

[Noextremes2017]

So much is written about testing - but it is not accurate.

I know of somebody in hospital right now who has been tested 4 times

Negative
Positive
Negative
Positive

What kind of a test is that?!

[wintertravel1980]

I don't think Care homes are separate and protected. That hasn't been the case, or else covid would not have got into these homes in the first place.

They should be protected but they have not been because UK did not have enough testing capacity and could not test care home personnel.

Ideally you would test each care home worker (regardless of symptoms) every 3-4 days. People only become contagious four days after they get infected so if you know someone tests negative, they do not pose any risk to the vulnerable population for at least four days even if they catch C19 right after their test.

Testing might be expensive but it will still be cheaper than keeping the whole country in lockdown.

[urkidding]

We do not know what R is as people who have been ill haven't been tested. They could have infected hundreds of people.. even if you're ill, you can't get tested. People who have been tested haven't got results for two weeks. So the figure for infecting others is incorrect. We are in a total mess, and the government is talking about policies based on an incorrect number.

[purplebunny2012]

Well duh

[Noextremes2017]

Did someone above suggest Johnson could be lying?

Of course he is lying. It is what he is and what he does.

Anyhow don't worry about the R number. Last week it was the be all and end all; this week it is not so important as the rate of new infections; next week they will have moved on to another scare tactic.

[excitedmumtobe87]

It’s too soon to blame it on the lockdown but it is logical to think the increased activity a couple of weeks ago during lockdown played a part. More diy stores opened, people were told they could drive to exercise, everywhere got busier and everyone had just been paid.

If that had an effect, what effect will last weekend when people broke the rules even more have?

What results will easing lockdown have?

It’s not lockdown bashing to say this, it’s good old fashioned British common sense.

[HeIenaDove]

Channel 4 news did a huge segment on care workers. And how they are under paid , under valued, classed as low skilled and why they cant socially distance due to the appalling places some of them live in.

Bookmark
Add message | Report | Message posterHeIenaDove Thu 14-May-20 19:14:10
A care worker interviewed lives in one room with her son and they share bathroom and kitchen facilities with ten other families
Hardly an ideal living situation to cook healthy meals

A care worker was ill with Covid for 28 days and was brought a hot meal every day by Hare Krishna She has to walk an hour to get to work and same to get home because she cant afford public transport

//www.channel4.com/news/charities-demand-care-home-workers-are-paid-a-living-wage

[Witchend]

Name changed. No, that is officially 236711 cases that have had a positive test overall since this started.
We don't know how many currently have it as the UK isn't providing recovery numbers.

[MiniTheMinx]

wintertravel1980 I don't think Care homes are separate and protected. That hasn't been the case, or else covid would not have got into these homes in the first place. Staff do not live on site, they travel in, they have contact with family, they visit supermarkets, take in parcels, travel on public transport etc,.. and if rates of infection are high in the care home population it has also been true that rates of infection have been high in care staff. This means the staff can infect others outside of that environment. I think the overall RO is what is important. Those in favour of having a regional breakdown in R seem to overlook the fact that people travel for work, especially commuters into London and people are now on route with kayaks and tents to Cornwall. Unless we are quarantined within a few miles of our home address, I don't see the point in lifting lockdown at different rates. I don't believe this will work.

I think R rises whilst cases of infection fall, initially. Individuals who are vectors will now come into contact with more people as lockdown is relaxed, so we will see an increase in cases. We will have a second peak. The RO is not affected by how many people are infected, its driven only by how many people they have contact with and able to transmit virus to. So, relaxing lockdown will drive RO up, and I am inclined to think 50,000 dead is just a starting point. If the data used to work out R is from 2 weeks ago then R was falling ONLY because of lockdown.

[TwentyViginti]

The roads in SE Cornwall this afternoon were packed

I was wondering how Cornwall and other resort type places would fare this weekend. I feel for the residents if they'e inundated with day trippers.

[jasjas1973]

Hang on, we been told that care home infections have fallen palpably/significantly/a lot by Johnson, its under control !

So any increase in R must be down to other factors? or is he lying?

The roads in SE Cornwall this afternoon were packed, loaded with bicycles, kayaks, roof boxes... local garden centres were v busy. its was as if lockdown. never happened.

I think the Stay Alert message has been taken as Do as you like and travel as far as you can...

[namechanged984630]

@witchend that figure is currently have it . The figure for have had it is 10% in London, and that was right before the peak. Likely 20% now?

[cadburyegg]

The rise in figures is thought to be driven by the infection rate in care homes and hospitals, not because a few people are getting in their cars

[JinglingHellsBells]

It may be because 20% of the population 'admits' to ignoring lockdown rules - in reality I think that figure is higher as how many people are being honest?

Seem too much of it on my own doorstep and goodness knows what the figures will show after the VE weekend stats kick in.

[Jeffersona]

Generally people should be in their cars for two reasons: driving to/from work; driving to/from the supermarket for an essential shop.

Obviously emergencies/special circumstances apply but in the early weeks of lockdown the first paragraph was being adhered to and now people are driving all over the place for god knows what.

[4cats2kids]

Every time I’ve had to go out in the past few weeks I’ve noticed more and more cars on the roads. No wonder it’s on the increase.

[Jeffersona]

Street parties, packed out parks and conga lines in a pandemic have consequences. Who knew?

[Whitewinetonight]

I reckon blame in on those who've had enough and broken the restrictions, alongside payday weekend - I noticed a lot more shopping a 2/2.5 weeks ago (in a shop).

[Rhianna1980]

I won’t blame the increase in R to the relaxation of lockdown 2 days ago. But it’s obvious where it’s heading with relaxing the lockdown measures. In 3-5 weeks infection Numbers are going to significantly increase.

[Littlebelina]

The one in 400 figure comes from an ons survery where they randomly tested just short of 11,000 people across the country (swab testing for antigens) People were chosen at random (from households who had taken part in other ons surverys over the years). 33 people over 30 households tested positive. They used this figure to extrapolate a national figure. This testing would pick up asymptomatic cases as they would still produce antigens but not people who had a past infection and recover as no antibody testing took place. That study is still to come

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england14may2020