The R is close to 1 already

[Realitea]

Just had a worrying update from sky news
Anyone else seen this?
The official estimate has risen slightly over the last week according to SAGE

The 1 in 400 figure came from a separate mass testing study, so I think it took a random population and looked at who had already had it as well as those currently infected. Obviously it wouldn't have picked up asymptomatic cases as we don't have antibody testing, so the real figure could be higher. Then again, having it may not confer immunity. There's still a lot we don't know.

Hospitals and care homes are not hermetically sealed separate communities.

They are not hermetically sealed but care homes are separate environments protected from the rest of the community. You can (and should) be able to minimise and stop the spread via frequent and extensive testing. You do not need to keep the whole country in the lockdown.

Hospitals are different but hospital deaths are going down across the country. The real problem is care homes.

ritatherockfairy are you sure? Because 148,000 is just over 1 in 400 people in England, so if the other study included people who'd already had it I'd expect their number to be a lot higher, unless the tests were done a while ago.

Regional variation is the main factor. London has dropped significantly because it was always ahead of the rest of the country. The other areas is catching up but then will drop. Then by 1 June will dip elsewhere.

I think the mass testing results published yesterday suggested 1 in 400 people have had it.

No, this is the percentage of population who have it now. They didn't test for antibodies.

I love how people are already blaming a 48 hour old losening of lock down on an R figure from 3 weeks ago! (The figure is based on delayed data.) The lockdown fans can't wait to get stuck in!

The one in 400 figure comes from an ons survery where they randomly tested just short of 11,000 people across the country (swab testing for antigens) People were chosen at random (from households who had taken part in other ons surverys over the years). 33 people over 30 households tested positive. They used this figure to extrapolate a national figure. This testing would pick up asymptomatic cases as they would still produce antigens but not people who had a past infection and recover as no antibody testing took place. That study is still to come

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england14may2020

I won’t blame the increase in R to the relaxation of lockdown 2 days ago. But it’s obvious where it’s heading with relaxing the lockdown measures. In 3-5 weeks infection Numbers are going to significantly increase.

I reckon blame in on those who've had enough and broken the restrictions, alongside payday weekend - I noticed a lot more shopping a 2/2.5 weeks ago (in a shop).

Street parties, packed out parks and conga lines in a pandemic have consequences. Who knew?

Every time I’ve had to go out in the past few weeks I’ve noticed more and more cars on the roads. No wonder it’s on the increase.

Generally people should be in their cars for two reasons: driving to/from work; driving to/from the supermarket for an essential shop.

Obviously emergencies/special circumstances apply but in the early weeks of lockdown the first paragraph was being adhered to and now people are driving all over the place for god knows what.

It may be because 20% of the population 'admits' to ignoring lockdown rules - in reality I think that figure is higher as how many people are being honest?

Seem too much of it on my own doorstep and goodness knows what the figures will show after the VE weekend stats kick in.

The rise in figures is thought to be driven by the infection rate in care homes and hospitals, not because a few people are getting in their cars

@witchend that figure is currently have it . The figure for have had it is 10% in London, and that was right before the peak. Likely 20% now?

Hang on, we been told that care home infections have fallen palpably/significantly/a lot by Johnson, its under control !

So any increase in R must be down to other factors? or is he lying?

The roads in SE Cornwall this afternoon were packed, loaded with bicycles, kayaks, roof boxes... local garden centres were v busy. its was as if lockdown. never happened.

I think the Stay Alert message has been taken as Do as you like and travel as far as you can...

The roads in SE Cornwall this afternoon were packed

I was wondering how Cornwall and other resort type places would fare this weekend. I feel for the residents if they'e inundated with day trippers.

wintertravel1980 I don't think Care homes are separate and protected. That hasn't been the case, or else covid would not have got into these homes in the first place. Staff do not live on site, they travel in, they have contact with family, they visit supermarkets, take in parcels, travel on public transport etc,.. and if rates of infection are high in the care home population it has also been true that rates of infection have been high in care staff. This means the staff can infect others outside of that environment. I think the overall RO is what is important. Those in favour of having a regional breakdown in R seem to overlook the fact that people travel for work, especially commuters into London and people are now on route with kayaks and tents to Cornwall. Unless we are quarantined within a few miles of our home address, I don't see the point in lifting lockdown at different rates. I don't believe this will work.

I think R rises whilst cases of infection fall, initially. Individuals who are vectors will now come into contact with more people as lockdown is relaxed, so we will see an increase in cases. We will have a second peak. The RO is not affected by how many people are infected, its driven only by how many people they have contact with and able to transmit virus to. So, relaxing lockdown will drive RO up, and I am inclined to think 50,000 dead is just a starting point. If the data used to work out R is from 2 weeks ago then R was falling ONLY because of lockdown.

Name changed. No, that is officially 236711 cases that have had a positive test overall since this started.
We don't know how many currently have it as the UK isn't providing recovery numbers.

Channel 4 news did a huge segment on care workers. And how they are under paid , under valued, classed as low skilled and why they cant socially distance due to the appalling places some of them live in.

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Add message | Report | Message posterHeIenaDove Thu 14-May-20 19:14:10
A care worker interviewed lives in one room with her son and they share bathroom and kitchen facilities with ten other families
Hardly an ideal living situation to cook healthy meals

A care worker was ill with Covid for 28 days and was brought a hot meal every day by Hare Krishna She has to walk an hour to get to work and same to get home because she cant afford public transport

www.channel4.com/news/charities-demand-care-home-workers-are-paid-a-living-wage

It’s too soon to blame it on the lockdown but it is logical to think the increased activity a couple of weeks ago during lockdown played a part. More diy stores opened, people were told they could drive to exercise, everywhere got busier and everyone had just been paid.

If that had an effect, what effect will last weekend when people broke the rules even more have?

What results will easing lockdown have?

It’s not lockdown bashing to say this, it’s good old fashioned British common sense.

Did someone above suggest Johnson could be lying?

Of course he is lying. It is what he is and what he does.

Anyhow don't worry about the R number. Last week it was the be all and end all; this week it is not so important as the rate of new infections; next week they will have moved on to another scare tactic.

Well duh

We do not know what R is as people who have been ill haven't been tested. They could have infected hundreds of people.. even if you're ill, you can't get tested. People who have been tested haven't got results for two weeks. So the figure for infecting others is incorrect. We are in a total mess, and the government is talking about policies based on an incorrect number.

I don't think Care homes are separate and protected. That hasn't been the case, or else covid would not have got into these homes in the first place.

They should be protected but they have not been because UK did not have enough testing capacity and could not test care home personnel.

Ideally you would test each care home worker (regardless of symptoms) every 3-4 days. People only become contagious four days after they get infected so if you know someone tests negative, they do not pose any risk to the vulnerable population for at least four days even if they catch C19 right after their test.

Testing might be expensive but it will still be cheaper than keeping the whole country in lockdown.