The R is close to 1 already

[Realitea]

Just had a worrying update from sky news
Anyone else seen this?
The official estimate has risen slightly over the last week according to SAGE

[ineedaholidaynow]

South West is really high too, although our numbers with the virus and dying with it are very low. So does that mean are numbers are going to go up suddenly?

[MiniTheMinx]

Predicting R is not a science, it's like predicting the weather. It's a guess. It will almost definitely be over 1 by next week,....that's my guess.

[TeddyIsaHe]

This is based on hospital and care home data (admissions and deaths) and is from 2-3 weeks ago.

It is not reflective of relaxing lockdown.

[wintertravel1980]

From Guardian:

A likely explanation is that as the overall levels of infection have fallen, hospital and care home settings are making a relatively bigger contribution to the overall estimate of R. Lockdown restrictions have less impact in these settings and there are still concerns about the levels of testing available in care homes.

They really need to separate community transmissions from care home. If the Guardian's explanation is correct, the trend we are seeing is in fact very positive for the community.

Of course, nobody should minimise the care home tragedy but it is not addressed via a country wide lockdown.

[TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair]

Here's someone sensible reassuring people about this twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1261319738824839168

It will go up and down and it rose in Germany when they came out of lockdown but then it then went down again. It's small clusters of cases dragging the number up.

And I agree, as much as care homes need to be protected, we can't lockdown the whole country because of them having cases. It's a dreadful overreaction. The virus still isn't a risk to the vast majority.

[LarkDescending]

For those who like to get into the numbers, this is interesting as to the complexities of R:

unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-headline-covid-figures-dont-tell-you/

[EwwSprouts]

It seems that R in London is significantly lower than elsewhere. Not seen any explanation of why though.

I live up north. When London was in the thick of it COVID had hardly arrived here. Hospitals were preparing & not filling. It's just going through our NHS, prisons & public facing workers this month.

[MrsMuffins]

This is based on data that is three weeks out of date apparently - so actually nothing to do with the R rate as it stands today

[Needmoresleep]

After reading a few threads about lockdown, I am not surprised it has fallen so much in London. Everyone I knew was being very careful, there were orderly queues outside supermarkets and general observation. Perhaps Londoners are socially distanced anyway, so as long as we did not get on the tube, transmission was gong to fall.

Then posters saying that they not bothered because they live in a village, and that sort of thing. How do they think clusters emerge. Or my in-laws saying they had seen other relatives, because other relatives just seem to take walks in their village and therefore walk past their retirement flat (and presumably are then invited in for a socially distanced coffee.)

R rates in different areas will be interesting. Perhaps we will need to follow Germany and France and have hot spots/red zones, and increase local restrictions when needed.

[wintertravel1980]

Thanks for the link, @LarkDescending

The problem is the press and social media will ignore the scientific complexities and nuances, focus on the headline number and start yelling "Bring the lockdown back, don't even dare to talk about school opening, etc, etc".

[Dreamscomingtrue]

The R is low in London because it was 2 weeks ahead of the rest of the country with positive cases. It is higher up in the North now because that is where London was 2 weeks ago.

[thatgingergirl]

Thank you wintertravel1980 - that's a clear explanation and reassuring.

[nellodee]

I think R is lumpy, not smooth, and that's why we are seeing the big variations. I think @EwwSprouts is right, it's gone through the public facing people in London and is now doing the same in other places.

I think we have managed to keep these care workers, nurses, etc, fairly separate from the rest of the population. When we start bringing more people out from lockdown, we will get new and different lumps, whilst front line Covid nurses, for example, may well be getting their own bit of "herd immunity" within certain workplaces.

[thedancingbear]

Thank you wintertravel1980

I honestly don't think the great British public should be allowed anywhere near statistical information, their level of understanding is so poor.

Even if the R rate is .99, that would be really good news. Exponential factors apply in both directions, and the virus will fade over time.

[PickUpAPickUpAPenguin]

Boris said last Sunday that it was between 0.5 and 0.9 and I gather from the press conferences that it's hard to calculate the figure and the figure can fluctuate a lot in a short amount time. After the sunny weather, VE Day and loosening if restrictions I'm not surprised to hear that it's risen. The tube trains can't be helping and not seen any pics of London buses

[merrymouse]

It seems doubtful that they would have figures for the last 4 days already.

[thedancingbear]

You need to look behind the brute facts guys As wintertravel1980 has pointed out, the increase in R is a paradoxical effect arising from the number of cases having fallen. This from the Guardian live blog explains a bit better I think:

The slight increase, and narrowing in the range, is not linked to relaxations that have occurred this week as the estimate is based largely on hospital admissions and deaths data, which reflect the levels of transmission two to three weeks ago.

A likely explanation is that as the overall levels of infection have fallen, hospital and care home settings are making a relatively bigger contribution to the overall estimate of R. Lockdown restrictions have less impact in these settings and there are still concerns about the levels of testing available in care homes.^

[Noti23]

If this is what’s happening to the R rate in Germany and the U.K. then America is going to be a bloodbath!

[mag12]

People have become too relaxed. Even before the lockdown was lightly eased people were meeting others they don’t live with, going out and about etc!

[Kazzyhoward]

Even if the R rate is .99, that would be really good news.

Considering the severity and length of the lockdown, 0.99 isn't good news at all. It means that it'll go above 1 at the slightest hint of a relaxation of the lockdown restrictions. It needs to be a lot lower to be considered good news.

[Kazzyhoward]

After the sunny weather, VE Day and loosening if restrictions I'm not surprised to hear that it's risen.

People who caught it last weekend won't even have symptoms yet so there's no way they'll be included in any statistics.

[Dodie66]

Hancock said the R rate is based on a survey they did 2 weeks ago. So this is not what it is now. It might be even higher

[Realitea]

I have a question that might seem a bit thick. They say the R is higher in care homes and hospitals. Do they mean just covid parts of hospitals? I just came out of hospital for a non covid related reason and I’m more than a little worried. It’s been five days now and feeling fine.

[HesterShaw1]

Of course it will go up. Restrictions have eased. The same thing happened in Germany and it's now going down again.

[Ormally]

London will also be seeing the result of people who usually commute for work (huge numbers) not going in and back out, and not making up its usual transport density. A few of the boroughs have higher concentrations of figures than others.

I do reckon that VE day as a calendar benchmark will not be without its results sometime.