Neil Ferguson - is this Too good to be true?

[LilacTree1]

Resigns after breaking the lockdown?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/

It's a different opinion to mine yes. Also, it's wrong. That's the thing with facts. They can be right and wrong.

Also, it's wrong

Short term and long term effects

The question is a complex one - and no doubt what's been talked about in Downing Street. Balancing the cost of a short lockdown vs a long lockdown.

Cost being human and economic. And societal.

@Smilethoyourheartisbreaking

I wasn’t commenting on the efficacy or otherwise of the lockdown. My point that the evidence of actual cases and actual deaths in NYC indicate Ferguson’s 250,000 estimate was reasonable, that’s all!

As for NYC being crowded... Yes, that will likely have sped up transmission allowing it unfortunately to be a case study. It has no bearing over whether Covid is transmissible - it would just naturally take longer elsewhere (see Bergamo).

As for NYC being ethnically diverse, so is much of the UK! You appear to be arguing for a racial-based social distancing Are we to quarantine Bradford and Brent? . Besides, there is no evidence that being white magically gives you such a significantly lower chance of being affected that it should impact on public policy (Bergamo is hardly especially ethnically diverse).

As for the Oxford study... Events have overtaken it. Much like the 3.4% CFR estimate from the WHO back in early March. I’d be rightly ridiculed if I still referred back to that, but I’m not determined to maximise the CFR as you seem determined to minimise it.

It's obviously complicated.

I am arguing against some people on this thread who say we shouldn't have had a lockdown at all and that a man having a fling is proof that the whole thing was a mistake.

One man was a hypocrite but that doesn't invalidate the science. Getting people to stay home during a pandemic is a no brainer.

I am arguing against some people on this thread who say we shouldn't have had a lockdown at all and that a man having a fling is proof that the whole thing was a mistake.

I agree. It’s beyond stupid, and shows a complete lack of critical reasoning that would embarrass a three year old.

@Derbygerbil

“Cuomo suggested that an infection rate of 13.9 percent statewide indicates that the death rate could be much lower than what is currently indicated. The state is currently reporting 263,460 confirmed positive coronavirus tests and 15,740 coronavirus deaths statewide, which would indicate a death rate of approximately 6 percent. But if the sample in the antibody testing is indicative of the total percentage of New Yorkers who have antibodies, that means as many as 2.7 million New Yorkers may have had the virus. That would indicate a statewide death rate of about 0.5 percent.”

I’m pretty positive that at least half of New Yorkers(city) have had this virus, given how densely populated the city is.

Also this:
www.spectator.co.uk/article/ventilators-doctor-movement

“His utterances had an out-of-the-mouth-of-babes quality. Only someone so fresh would both notice and baldly declare the emperor’s lack of clothes: that ventilators were possibly doing more harm than good. Patients left to breath on their own with very low blood oxygen levels were not perishing as standard medical opinion would have predicted. Dr Kyle-Sidell then used YouTube to further voice his concerns. His first video has now been watched more than 700,000 times. This has to be a world first for one man’s rather esoteric rant about the physiology of mechanical ventilation.”

time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/

“But for COVID-19, the numbers are even worse. Only a small portion of COVID-19 patients get sick enough to require ventilation—but for the unlucky few who do, data out of China and New York City suggest upward of 80% do not recover. A U.K. report put the number only slightly lower, at 66%.”

Who predicted we needed thousands and thousands of ventilators?🤔

nationalpost.com/pmn/environment-pmn/uk-changed-its-approach-after-ventilator-demand-estimate-doubled-doctor-says

Britain toughened its approach to the coronavirus outbreak after estimates of the number of people who would need invasive mechanical ventilation in intensive care doubled, a top epidemiologist who advised the government said on Wednesday.

“The revision was basically that the proportion of patients requiring invasive ventilation, mechanical ventilation, which is only done on a critical care unit, roughly doubled,” Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told a British parliamentary committee.

I am struggling to see what points you are trying to make @mumlove5

I was responding to this:

“Ffs... Look at NYC. Something similar has come to fruition, in a real place, with real cases, and real deaths. I’d respect your position if you argued cogently why lockdown wasn’t the right approach, but the more deeply you deny reality, the crazier your position seems. It’s now up there with 5G and David Icke to me. Stop this madness!”

@Mumlove5

I’m pretty positive that at least half of New Yorkers(city) have had this virus, given how densely populated the city is.

So, you’re resorting to unfounded speculation based on little more than gut feeling that’s at odds with various trials indicating a significantly lower figure.

And even if you’re correct with your speculative 50%, NYC’s figures are very much in line with Ferguson’s 250,000 UK deaths!

Marty I agree. I think he was right to resign because he's a hypocrite who thinks the rules should be different for him, but it doesn't mean that the lockdown wasn't valid or change the science.

@Derbygerbil

Ok, this will be the last time I will respond to you.

All of the recent antibody tests reveal that Sars-Cov-2 is more widespread and less deadly than thought. The more people you test, those who had mild symptoms or who were asymptomatic, the death-rate lowers. Welcome to Antibody testing 101.

All of the recent antibody tests reveal that Sars-Cov-2 is more widespread and less deadly than thought

How deadly do you think it is?

Any government has to plan for the “reasonable worst-case scenario”.
They can't hope for the best,
wait until the corpses pile up and they have all that evidence.

This was Chris Whitty's estimate - not a model - just before lockdown:

No responsible government could ignore their CMO stating this:

https://www.ft.com/content/c43b9c3e-6470-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said the “reasonable worst-case scenario”

was that 80 per cent of Britain’s 66m population would be infected, with an expected mortality rate of 1 per cent or less.

On that calculation a worst case death toll could be in the region of 500,000.

Comprehensive summary of COVID studies and esimated infection rates,

includes New York, so people don't have to invent their own figures

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far

In New York, preliminary results of an ongoing state survey of people approached outside of grocery and big-box stores that were announced Thursday by Governor Andrew Cuomo

found that 13.9% of those tested statewide had coronavirus antibodies,
and that 21.2% of those tested in New York City did

The official estimate of Covid-19 deaths statewide is 15,740,
which makes for an infection fatality rate of 0.58%.

New York City adds in deaths from people who died at home
and had Covid-like symptoms, for a city total of 15,411, which gives an infection fatality rate of 0.86%.

Virus expert Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle prefers using an estimate of the city’s excess deaths over normal (19,200 since March 11), which gives an IFR of 1.08%.

THis financial Times chart shows the spike in total deaths - compared to the historical average - in cities and regions hit by COVID:

SMile It should be reasonable worst case, not the worst case of our nightmares

I support opening schools and restarting the economy in stages from 1 June

However, that will never be possible if those who are very frightened keep hearing the tired old "it's just flu" from those who have never accepted lockdown

We need to be examining what worked elsewhere when looking at how to relax measures

We should learn from countries in Asia such as Hong Kong, Singapore, S Korea
(Hong Kong had 8 deaths out of 7.4 million population)

Implement comparatively cheap & simple measures that work and enable most of the economy to continue:

. wearing masks outside
. taking your temperature and not going out if it is over 37 C
. temperature monitors outside places of work, supermarkets, restaurants, gyms etc. so you aren't allowed in with 37+

Also learn from European countries like Germany:

. mass testing
. mass contact tracing and mandatory isolation of the infected
. early treatment of the ill, including home visits, but also early hospital admission for O2 when tests show low blood O2 or there are breathing problems.

imo, it is also worth giving the advice to eat more oily fish and to supplement with vitamin D3 - that's copying Scandinavia

However, that will never be possible if those who are very frightened keep hearing the tired old "it's just flu" from those who have never accepted lockdown

Indeed, their approach has been counterproductive and self-defeating from the start. I want to start opening up the economy as soon as we reasonably can and recognise we must all accept a degree of risk, but what I’m most concerned about is those who continue to minimise it behaving irresponsibly because it’s all some big hoax and it’s nothing more than the flu, ruining our attempts to get the country back on track.

All of the recent antibody tests reveal that Sars-Cov-2 is more widespread and less deadly than thought

Pure spin... Antibody tests have shown everything from 0.1 to 1.5% CFR, which is amongst the range most people have thought it was, perhaps lower than the earliest 3% estimates but you’ll struggle to find anyone who’s studied Covid who still thinks this. Indeed, the 0.5% figure you quoted for NY (which as @BigChocFrenzy identified is somewhat low interpretation of the results) is right at the top of your range.

If only your last post was the leaked government plan @BigChocFrenzy

Those who think because somebody ever so coincidentally just happened to discover Ferguson with his pants down means everything he says (simple common sense re contagion) isn't valid. Do you think scientist Angela Merkel speaks rubbish too?

She's warned against premature end of lockdowns. I'm inclined to trust her advice given she's done well in keeping her population safe. Germany will, consequently, see a quicker and easier economic recovery.

Convenient for our government he was caught out on the same day it was confirmed we have the highest number of deaths in Europe (and the world). And that despite this our government wants to end lockdown early - but do nothing to help keep us safe. Excellent distraction.

If they wanted to protect lives and the economy, they'd do a further three weeks lockdown.

They should use those extra three weeks to do what they should've at the start of the lockdown (sooner in fact). Get the bloody PPE we need, get accurate tests, get the drugs, start treating patients (and treating early).