Neil Ferguson - is this Too good to be true?

[LilacTree1]

Resigns after breaking the lockdown?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/

I’m not reposting my posts from this thread, however new antibody tests are proving this virus is more widespread and less deadly than thought... 0.1 - 0.5% IFR.

New findings are showing the virus has been in France since Christmas. In Italy, people were going to the hospital with a strange pneumonia around Christmas as well.

Medical paper:
www.news-medical.net/news/20200407/Lessons-from-Italys-COVID-19-pandemic-underscore-the-need-for-more-research.aspx

German Virologist:
unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds-covid-fatality-rate-of-0-24-0-36/

• IFR of Covid-19 is 0.36% and could be more like 0.24%
• Lockdown happened too fast
• Vaccine may never come, 'partial immunity' from low-dosage spread a better bet

Mumlove5 "He [Dr John Ioannidis] questioned the highly inaccurate Imperial Model from the beginning. He mainly said we need more reliable data and we’re going into this blindly.

Absolutely we needed more reliable data and of course we were going into this blindly. So you think we should have ignored it and counted up the dead later to know who was right?

You are struggling to understand how things work in the real world and that's understandable.

How did the journos know? Either a neighbour or just as likely someone whose toes he tried on further down the ladder, or who has a long held grudge. Academia can be most unpleasant!

This also draws attention away from todays Which report.

twitter.com/DrFrancesRyan/status/1257582196963106817?s=20

Frances Ryan
@DrFrancesRyan
Today’s report by Which? echoes my Guardian investigation last month: many disabled people are struggling to access food during lockdown, with some forced to break shielding and go to a supermarket because the government’s shut them out.

@LastTrainEast

Yup, I do know how the real world works. No one should make brash knee-jerk decisions without reliable data... Especially decisions that destroy economies and livelihoods.

No evidence that the inaccurate, un-peer-reviewed, flawed model would have come to fruition. It was a hypothetical mathematical model which made a prediction causing mass hysteria.

I honestly do not care about Fergusson either way. I don’t know the man and I’ve not studied the intricacies of his numerical models. I expect very few of his detractors have either....

But the fact that he seems to have become a figure of hate for those who thought the lockdown was wrong, because his models vastly overcooked the deaths simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

He predicted c.250,000 deaths. NYC has had 19,100 deaths in a population of 8.4m. Scale that up to the UK and you have 150,000 deaths. Given that the death toll from NYC is sadly incomplete, and given that it “locked down” as cases spiked, it’s clear that the death toll has the potential to be much higher still (only 20-25% apparently have antibodies).... As such his modelling on the impact of continuing on the path we were on in early March seems very reasonable. You could even argue that it’s undercooked when you take NYC antibody levels and the even worse figures from Bergamo into account!

He may be a hypocrite. Other models of his may have been out. Lockdown may not have been the answer.... But his modelling on the 250,000 doesn’t seem to have been too wide of the mark.

No evidence that the inaccurate, un-peer-reviewed, flawed model would have come to fruition. It was a hypothetical mathematical model which made a prediction causing mass hysteria.

Ffs... Look at NYC. Something similar has come to fruition, in a real place, with real cases, and real deaths. I’d respect your position if you argued cogently why lockdown wasn’t the right approach, but the more deeply you deny reality, the crazier your position seems. It’s now up there with 5G and David Icke to me. Stop this madness!

Look at the Oxford model

What do you think of the statistics from Bergamo and NYC?

19,415 deaths. That's quite a lot for a city like NYC

The person who talked about the Oxford Model seems to have been very quiet since then.

At least on Twitter. And Google isn't doing much either

Have you been to NYC? The density of population is twice as much as London. With an awful lot of BAME and deprived areas

I know - my question is - what do you think of the statistics?

The thing from the Oxford model that is important - but it's important anyway - is to get and to do large wide spread antibody testing.

I think it would be very interesting to do a large, random (and it would be interesting to see how it varies around the UK) testing to see the percentage of people who have antibodies.

Purely random samples.

Even if blood was used from non Covid 19 patients - just to get an estimate.

The first death in France was mid December. If the UK had done a complete lockdown of all businesses for 3 weeks we'd have nipped this thing in the bud with minimal loss of life but the government are still stealthily applying the herd immunity whilst appearing to give a shit.

First UK fatality was beginning of March

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

We were told that we would have to lockdown at the right time, because the UK would not stick at it.

I wonder what they think of that guidance now?

From that:

The government is still deciding what measures will be taken in the delay phase, but has previously said this could include banning big events, closing schools, encouraging people to work from home and discouraging the use of public transport

This guy is a complete disgrace! Who the hell does he think he is. Judging and demanding of others - yet he does what he likes...

How did they catch him?

I find a lot of the posts on this thread utterly utterly weird, shocking and upsetting because there is a total lack of SENSE.

He did something wrong. Clearly. Like Boris Johnson when he had his affairs. A lot of powerful people do things like that. That's not to diminish what he did and it also make quite amusing headlines.

BUT, BUT what on earth has his fling got to do with the science? What on earth? Viruses spread with contact. A child knows that. Over 30,000 people have died. Any scientist, indeed any human being would conclude that a lockdown was necessary especially in a country with a high population density and poor supply of PPE and tests.

People who are arguing on here that because ONE of the many SAGE scientists had a fling, we should end lockdown are utterly bonkers. There is no logic to that argument at all.

There's no logic and it's also immoral. How many deaths would it take for you to take it seriously? Covid 19 has already killed more people in London than the blitz but you need to hug your mum or go to the hairdresser?

@martysouth

Do YOU read the DAILY Express with its CAPITALISED headlines

Sorry for the SHOUTING! I am upset at the stupidity and selfishness.

t means I see things differently to you

TBH - I am not sure how I see things.

I see different patterns through the country
I see an NHS that seems to be coping
I think we should have got our track, trace and test system up and running earlier.
I see that people were locking down anyway - especially with regards to schools - and all the implications of that.

There are not different perspectives on whether the lockdown is necessary or not. It's not a political opinion or a preference. Viruses spread by contact. To stop the thread of this deadly virus people have to stay home. That's all there is to it.