BA possibly making up to 12,000 redundant. Here we go. Recession looming.

[BubblesBuddy]

Life has ground to a halt and BA don’t think we will be flying in the same numbers as before. This is 25% of their staff. This is serious.

Whilst obviously not at the same scale as CV-19, once a vaccine is found or a cure, then CV-19 will pose no more of a threat to the world than seasonal flu does now & assuming a vacc is found quickly, the worldwide recession will be relatively short lived

Your jaunty optimism about the immediate invention of a vaccine and the swerving of any serious global recession is curious.

When all these many hundreds of thousands, possibly multiples of millions of people hit the dole queues, who is going to be paying for care homes, hospitals and other public services. You?

RR could easily relocate to Germany etc with or without CV-19 .... how many people used to work for British steel, coal mining or ship building?
new industries start up, old ones fail.
Brexit has fucked the foreign owned british car industry, 1 million jobs in total will go... no one gave a fuck about their jobs or the lost taxes.

ONS thinks 41k lives lost to CV already, unless we fix this, the economy will just keep in freefall

My relative is a BA captain and has been treated very well up until now but is on the old contract. I guess these might be the first to go as so expensive?

What do you mean by "old contract" - do you mean the 24 point pay scale..?

Outside of the payscale an individual is on the actual day to day contractural stuff is pretty much the same, with Short Haul vs. Long haul diffferences.

Anyhow, I suspect some of those approaching retirement may be encouraged to leave..but, OTOH, there might be a complication in that some Fleets (aircraft types) may not be resurrected in any great numbers, if at all, if the down turn is prolonged, so that might complicate matters. The Union Reps at BA are going to be working hard over the next few weeks.

It's highly likely it will be way beyond a recession, and even a depression; more like a great global reset.

In time, new industries will spring up and others grow - agriculture, food production, animal husbandry, new methods of transport, new energy, new green industries. We just can't see them yet, and none of us know, yet, where they're going to come from, or how we're personally going to be affected. Pharmaceuticals are likely to change and expand still further. SOME complementary medicine, SOME spiritual industries/religious industries. Communications, surveillance, cybersecurity.

Healthcare and education will change beyond recognition. All those who've been begging for the NHS to be restructured are about to get their wish. And the days of humanity acting like spoiled children playing in the sunshine are probably over.

In time, the domestic holiday market might recover, although possibly never to the levels of pre-COVID-19. On a brighter note, surely even the most cynical and die-hard climate change cynics can't have failed to notice the bluer skies, and the louder birdsong? The increase in insects, including bees? (We'll leave the shocking HS2 project apart for now. It upset me beyond tears to hear that baby badgers were running out of their setts, terrified, as the diggers moved in.)

After the Black Death in the 14th century (and no, we're nowhere near those levels yet, by any measure), things improved for many of the peasants who were left. Some academic lecturers also hold the theory that it gave rise to the Renaissance, eventually, and then to our modern world.

Humanity as a whole is astonishingly resilient. Doesn't mean the rest few years/decades (probably the remainder of my lifespan, certainly) isn't going to be extremely tough, though. (Huge understatement there.)

Huge global depression beginning in a matter of weeks.

However that’s the plan.

First move, get rid of cash. Second move, universal basic income. Then we all belong to “the government”, whoever that ends up being.

Much as I do have huge sympathy for those who will lose their jobs; this is, possibly, a reset button for the planet

Third world living standards here we come.

@notimagain I have no idea about the details of the contract, as I say he is a relative and although we are close I have not discussed it beyond him telling me that he is on a different contract to the newer pilots which is beneficial to him for things like pension. Probably due to his age I guess.

Freeasabirdy..makes sense, and yes there is also the probability he could also be in one of the older BA pension schemes.

Hope it works out OK for him.

Raccoon / yes very true. We will work less in luxury businesses and more in essentials like nhs, food production etc. At least for a year or two.

It’s upset me beyond belief that I will live near HS2 and hear the frigging trains all the time! I’m less bothered about badgers. There’s a very plentiful supply of them everywhere else believe me. My life during the building project won’t be great either and I can’t even get on it when it’s built. It’s whizzing past in the AONB. That means nothing of course to HS2 devotees. To me it means draconian planning restrictions to keep the countryside preserved. It’s ludicrous isn’t it?

What are luxury businesses by the way? Everyone has a different definition of luxury. Do you mean making and designing aircraft, cars, designing homes, new infrastructure and buildings, tourism, cafes and restaurants, beauty, sport and leisure? In fact all the things that make life a little bit good? And all of these employ millions who cannot be rerouted to other jobs. New areas of employment are not sufficiently developed and not everyone lives near a fruit farm! Let’s get all the pilots to pick the fruit. The cabin crew could retrain as nurses or care home workers. Problem solved? We are in a very precarious position and just swapping roles cannot happen.

It’s not what I want but it was a comment on how the economy will shift

How can it shift? There will be work for those employed by the government but many others working in business or commerce will take a massive hit. Farmers don’t just produce more at the drop of a hat. We import the majority of our food. We are currently throwing milk away due to cafe and restaurant closures. There are no new jobs in agriculture. There may be a few in the NHS and caring sector but the nhs is already the fifth biggest employer on the planet. It cannot possibly grow to take on all the future unemployed and who would pay for that? The only safe jobs are public employees.

Apparently nhs are massively understaffed by tens of thousands so jobs there - though how we pay for it all I have no idea

@BubblesBuddy It's not the fact they were badgers that upset me, it's the fact they were babies and must have been so frightened. Still, look on the bright side. Lots of roadkill, eh! Adapt or die, and all that (pretty much what we're about to go through, as a species).

I was born in a part of the country that is never going to benefit from HS2 and I now live in a different part of the country that's never going to benefit from HS2 either. I think it's a spaffing waste of money. A bit like garden bridges that never materialised and many other projects. They'd be better off putting that money into improving the Internet infrastructure.

Hs2 was an idea that looked good before we all discovered zoom etc

Total white elephant now

Some BA staff are furloughed. Can’t BA atleast keep them furloughed for a few months? Why make them redundant now?

I think furlough ends on 30 June? Redundancy with such huge numbers will take a while to see through. This is the first warning of business turmoil. If you are not flying aircraft or have half empty planes you don’t need the staff. They think they won’t need the level of staffing they have now for several years. It’s very likely other employers will do the same and start reviewing now for the end of the furlough scheme.

"Some BA staff are furloughed. Can’t BA atleast keep them furloughed for a few months? Why make them redundant now?"

Do you think that when furloughing ends in a few months that the airline industry will return to normal overnight?
Until a vaccine is available that won't happen.
Even then business travel will take a huge hit as people become more used to zoom, teams etc.

So what does everything of the furlough scheme? How long do can you see the government running it? Until a vaccine comes out?

Or do you think they will run until September maximum then put everyone on universal credit for those who are made redundant? I feel like the sensible thing would be too either give everyone a UBI until a vaccine is found or continue furloughing both costly but one is surely needed

I think furlough ends on 30 June?

It does.

All this furlough (in the UK sense of the word) has done is allow BA and other companies a pause to analyse where this is headed without committing to redundancies straight away.

They've now done their analysis, done the sums, and it is looking very ugly for all employee groups.

Headpotato, no I don’t think the airline industry will return to normal anytime soon.
My point is, BA could keep staff furloughed as long as possible, also the furlough scheme could be extended.
Even if BA want to make 12000 redundant, they could buy the staff some time by keeping them on the payroll.

It’s up to 12,000 just to be clear.

Why do you think a company with very little business can pay people? It’s not the government. No business can do this. Virtually all businesses with reduced workload in the foreseeable future will be making plans for redundancy. It’s the only way they can survive. Or the whole of a company can shut down and everyone is redundant. Of course this will happen to many companies which is why some cabinet members want to open up business quicker than others.

If we pay out even more money from the government to bail out every company that needs to downsize then our children and their children will be paying forever more. It’s not possible.

My point is, BA could keep staff furloughed as long as possible, also the furlough scheme could be extended.
Even if BA want to make 12000 redundant, they could buy the staff some time by keeping them on the payroll.

As Bubblesbuddy says how long do you think a company can pay to keep people on the payroll? I think...scratch that....I know, that one airline was hopeful initially that the downturn in their business would be short lived and that maybe by Christmas they would be back to operating something approaching normal schedules...so yes at that point there was some logic in that airline thinking keeping staff inactive but on the payroll for a few months made sense. That airline are already into the "buy the staff some time" stage.

I think now just from what has been in the general news it should be obvious to all of us that there will be no fast recovery, certainly not in the travel sector...BA have obviously also realised that and worked out that they can't afford to keep all their staff on the payroll for one/two/three years...(delete as applicable).

As has also been said the BA figure is up to 12000...and I'm hearing all or almost all employee groups are going to take a hit.

I do Think that some people truly believe companies have untold wealth and can act as charities. We all need a better education on how business works and the finance behind them. People demonise share holders and owners but they bank roll the companies. They might also be pension funds and large investment companies which have the savings of millions of ordinary people amongst their investors. There does need to be a better understanding that if businesses are not visible everyone potentially suffers.