BA possibly making up to 12,000 redundant. Here we go. Recession looming.

[BubblesBuddy]

Life has ground to a halt and BA don’t think we will be flying in the same numbers as before. This is 25% of their staff. This is serious.

Shame for folk losing jobs, but we do just need to fly less.

I was amazed at this furlough scheme and thought the costs would be absolutely astronomical and open to people taking advantage. Especially since the salary was set quite high. It is absolutely unsustainable. But as regards to BA, air travel needs to be massively cut back if the planet is to survive.

So whilst the death rate begins to fall because of the lockdown- the negative side of the lockdown is mass unemployment.

That’s to do with the pandemic, not the lockdown. All of the countries I was due to fly to with work this year have banned travellers from the U.K. If the lockdown ended tomorrow and the FCO lifted its advisory against overseas travel, I still wouldn’t be able to enter those countries.

It’s hugely sad for those losing jobs. My daughter’s best friend is a stewardess and hasn’t heard anything but expects to. It’s all she ever wanted to do but luckily will have good family support.

In terms of the business survival , they haven’t kept up and were complacent. They were more expensive than the no frills carriers but weren’t competing with the top carriers like Emirates or Cathay. I’ve had a few reasonable city breaks but had just as good experience using EasyJet and Booking.com. They can’t hold their own against Ethiad and other flagship airlines that had national subsidy.

Sad but someone will take the place they vacate. We should fly less to protect the environment; hopefully that will be something positive Coronavirus brings.

@GCAcademic

That’s to do with the pandemic, not the lockdown. All of the countries I was due to fly to with work this year have banned travellers from the U.K. If the lockdown ended tomorrow and the FCO lifted its advisory against overseas travel, I still wouldn’t be able to enter those countries.

Yes that’s true and I do agree with what you say and probably not the best example I could have used.

Equally though, I suppose I was thinking if BA could see a future then they could have furloughed their staff surely?

You’re right in that works wide travel in the short term will be impacted, however people won’t be in a position to fly even when countries open borders up, because of the lack of finances.

Airlines will be struggling across the world. Many won’t survive. Virgin and Norwegian don’t look good unless they can get significant funding very quickly.

A worldwide recession has already started;
very likely a Global Depression is coming

Unfortunately I agree. Things are going to be bleak.

BA are always making people redundant.
They will hire them again next summer.
Wonder how many extra people the supermarkets/zoom/amazon etc have employed.

In terms of the business survival , they haven’t kept up and were complacent. They were more expensive than the no frills carriers but weren’t competing with the top carriers like Emirates or Cathay.

Well in terms of passenger experience you may well be impressed with Cathay or Emirates..

OTOH if we are genuinely talking business survival then one look at balance sheets over the last few years would rather suggest Cathay really aren't in a position to be giving BA lessons in "business survival"...

Emirates - it's tougher to compare, since they do have the advantage of, shall we say, a friendly Government...

I guess that cabin crew have hospitality skills so can get jobs elsewhere once we are back open , but pilots are a different matter.

Unfortunately once furlough ends there is going to be mass closures and job losses across hospitality, even those that don’t close are going to have to cut a lot of staff and hours. Jobs elsewhere are going be become few and far between.

BA won’t rehire if this continues. And they don’t believe it will be back to normal by next summer either.

Other state owned airlines might be bailed out such as Emirates. This is just the start. If BA contracts and other airlines too, the future is bleak at airports, for aircraft manufacturers such as BAe, for catering companies and pilots plus crew.

BA pay better than the budget airlines and the average pay for pilots is £167,000. However if you are a cleaner or a pilot, unemployment is a serious dent in your life.

Emirates has more than a friendly government. They own it.

a recession was on the cards due to Brexit. Unfortunately the pandemic has caused this to happen sooner and probably worldwide

@Parker231

There is absolutely zero comparison between Brexit and the impact of this pandemic. Borders closed. Flights grounded. The planet is under house arrest. Global economic activity is paralysed. Entire industries are facing an existential threat; tourism, hospitality. In the capitals of the world, silence and birdsong. Put your shoehorn down. There is no comparison.

The impact of the global shutdown is causing carnage in other sectors.

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/us/coronavirus-houston-texas-oil.html

There is a comparison. Brexit was forecast to cause a recession particularly with the no deal we are heading towards. COVID 19 has started it earlier and it has a worldwide impact rather than only UK and possibly some other European countries for Brexit.

12000 is bad but the UK is looking at unemployment going to 3 or 4m if not higher.

We locked down way too late and our lockdown isn't even a lockdown... just a few restrictions, so the economic hit will be longer and harder, as a PP said, other countries wont let us in either.

Should a vaccine be found, then the economy will recover, if not, we are in for a dramatic change to our lives.

TBF i look at the 1000s of excess deaths in care homes and that makes me far more sad/angry than a poorly run airline laying people off.

BA are already furloughing over 30k staff but they claim the government won't be able to keep that going for a year or two.
Even then air travel won't have returned to anything like current levels.
BA bosses also probably see this as an opportunity to get rid of any expensive legacy staff still remaining.

There is a comparison. Brexit was forecast to cause a recession particularly with the no deal we are heading towards. COVID 19 has started it earlier

You really don't get it, do you? Brexit looks like a parochial council matter compared to this. Do you reckon the predictions about 300, 000 job losses in the US oil sector are because of Brexit??

I get !!! I’ve spent the last three years advising businesses on Brexit contingency planning. Forecasting is my job.

I’ve spent the last three years advising businesses on Brexit contingency planning

That is last year's news. It is irrelevant in the light of this. This has caused a cessation of global economic activity.

TBF i look at the 1000s of excess deaths in care homes and that makes me far more sad/angry than a poorly run airline laying people off
They are not laying people off though. That implies that they will have a chance to get their jobs back. 12,000 who pay the taxes that pay for those care homes are losing their jobs at a time when it will be hard to find another one.

It also won't be just 12,000 jobs lost. It is the entire supply chain which will be many multiples of 12,000 jobs. Cleaners, airport staff, caterers, the people who build and design aircraft, the corner shops that make sandwiches for the employees who do all these jobs, the taxi drivers who take people to the airport... 12,000 direct jobs may go, but it could very easily be 150,000 or even more jobs lost, and countless businesses go under.

For example, are you aware that the entire future of companies in this country like Rolls Royce is in jeopardy because of the current situation with the air industry. That's another potential 26,000 people on the dole, plus all their supply chain too.

When all these many hundreds of thousands, possibly multiples of millions of people hit the dole queues, who is going to be paying for care homes, hospitals and other public services. You?

A no deal Brexit will have a long term effect on the UK economy, with no fix.

Whilst obviously not at the same scale as CV-19, once a vaccine is found or a cure, then CV-19 will pose no more of a threat to the world than seasonal flu does now & assuming a vacc is found quickly, the worldwide recession will be relatively short lived.

But by pursuing no-deal, we are just making the economic hit from CV even worse for the UK, as there will be no extra world trade for us to try and tap into, so we get a double hit.

My relative is a BA captain and has been treated very well up until now but is on the old contract. I guess these might be the first to go as so expensive?

Point of order because we may have some American readers.

"Furlough" in American airlines generally means that you are made redundant, zero pay, but have priority for re-employment if the airline starts rehiring verses somebody who hasn't worked for the company before...

I'm not sure the UK "furlough" is the same animal..

BubblesBuddy - thanks for clarifying that Emirates is states owned - I was having a "senior, not sure so I'll be vague" moment when I posted earlier but I suspected that was the case.

It's going to be a new Global Great Depression

And it's coming at a time when there is increasing awareness that we just cannot continue to ignore climate change. Much as I do have huge sympathy for those who will lose their jobs; this is, possibly, a reset button for the planet.

But It's brutal, and no one ouid be chosen to just cancel the travel industry. However it has been cancelled by the pandemic, and perhaps this is also a whole new opportunity for a less harmful leisure and holidays