Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

What has surprised me are the stats on smokers, another of the many aspects that need to be researched

Smoking has a protective affect in areas with very high levels of malaria.

Anti-marial drugs are amongst those being used to treat patients.

I was looking at some Scottish stats linked on here (not sure if this thread, sorry) where the deaths split by sex was pretty much 50:50.

There are far more women than men in the 80+ age group, so a 50:50 split implies a higher risk for men

Thanks glass, rally interesting

Floopsy With Belgium having such a high number of deaths / million - even considering their COVID counting methods -
it's sobering that the antibody tests are still well down in single digits

Do you have study links and sample dates - publication date will be an unknown amount of time later

btw, there was one study of blood donors cancelled because it was found a significiant number of people who had had COVID had participated,
thinking their antibodies could then be given to help patients

I don't know if that was in Belgium, but it shows that even a group of blood donors group need to be analysed to check how representative they are for a study

"one study of blood donors cancelled"

• to be precise, their report was withdrawn after it was realised that the blood donors were not the typical group they had aassumed

@BigChocFrenzy

The UA page on the study in En is here. It hasn't been updated I saw the latest info on RTBL

They're testing the blood taken as part of regular outpatient screening.

@DownyBuds - same here; I found it difficult to answer as I'm peri menopausal & haven't had a period for nearly 100 days. I'm not sure what conclusions they can draw from me!

digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs-pathways

OK, this data is for the big hitters. Please look and give me a breakdown. What is shows in summary is that 111/999 calls etc are going down, as are admittances. Well, that we knew. Does it tell us whether different areas had different criteria for hospital admittance. I am keen to find out whether the "blue lips and at deaths door" is an urban myth, a localised phenomenon, or a government policy.

With respect to smokers, there is a hypothesis that nicotine is protective.

Algorithms that I've seen from from various GP surgeries (I've been revising as a potential returner) and the NICE guidelines do not support the 'stay at home til you turn blue.'

However, cyanosis is one of the red flag signs, so may be given as reason to phone back/call 999. I think the big problem is the happy hypoxia- so if people are walking, talking and not complaining of severe breathlessness with seriously low Oxygen levels, the severity of their illness may not be pocked up.

@Baaaahhhhh I can give my own anecdata that I was left at home with no medical assistance other than via phone call long after I would normally have been in with pneumonia.
There was an article a couple of weeks back (I think Sunday Times if you want to search?) that reported that 111 had changed the threshold for admittance because people were being left too long - which does imply it was policy at the start and has recently been changed as policy makers realised it was a terrible idea.
Whether it was national or local policy I don't know, but for what it's worth I live in a very rural area with a hospital almost empty so I can't see why they would have put it in place here as a local policy except to prevent infectious people going to hospital and spreading it.

@cathyandclare I don't think the issue has been with GPs, but 111. And most GP websites are saying call 111 with covid symptoms, not them.

@BigChocFrenzy

The report on the Red Cross study in BE is [[https://www.sciensano.be/fr/coin-presse/43-de-la-population-belge-a-developpe-des-anticorps-contre-le-coronavirus here]]

Only available in French or Dutch

I was asked about periods today too

Thanks @space. I've found the figures; they were in the p and j. www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2147608/coronavirus-in-scotland-how-does-geography-gender-location-and-age-affect-covid-19-deaths/

But for a lot of other countries even with the deaths being mainly among older folk and there being fewer older men, the sex split is still much less equal. So there may be something different about Scotland, I think?

Grr autocorrect, meant to address @spacie

Deaths in Belgium are equally split but there are a huge number of cases for which they don't have any data.

@GlassOfProsecco yes, I didn't know whether to check 'I don't have periods any more' or 'My periods have stopped', or 'I do have periods', they could all apply to me! And you can't go back and change answers on it can you.

I'm peri menopausal and last period was in early Mar, but I suspect it's anxiety which has temporarily halted them, it's happened to me before!

@Baaaahhhhh

I am keen to find out whether the "blue lips and at deaths door" is an urban myth, a localised phenomenon, or a government policy.

Unless these people were alone, even then a taxi to hospital. If myself or my DH or any members of our family, had those symptoms, we would be making our way to A&E irrespective of what 111 said.

In the early days in March of COVID symptoms, the advice was wait seven days see how your symptoms are worsening call 111.

@BigChocFrenzy @Floopsy

I agree, the Belgian study shows soberingly low levels of antibodies... With a death rate of 0.0735% currently (Worldometers), that equates to 1.2% CFR, so above NYC but below Bergamo.

Alongside whether the studies have representative samples, the other big questions for me are, firstly, the accuracy of these tests (potential for false positives and negatives) and, secondly, the extent, if at all, some people have a level of innate immunity that means that they were able to fight the virus before they became infected to the extent of requiring antibodies, or produced so few that they are not picked up by an antibody test. I’ve read conflicting accounts on this, but I’m no epidemiologist so am not sure what to make of it... clearly if there are substantially numbers with innate immunity, that changes things significantly.

The USA Abbott tests are apparently only 85% accurate.

I have also been curious about the obesity information as the percentage of overweight and obese patients in hospital is very similar to the percentage in society in the reports I have read
It is known that there are difficulties intubating very large patients which may affect the morbidly obese

I got the periods question on the app today too. I wondered if they were investigating the male/female split and looking at effect of oestrogen on risk as it asked if I was on HRT

Is it 419 for whole of uk today?

You may well have already seen this, but I came across it for the first time today when looking for data about hospital admissions.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883790/COVID19_Weekly_Report_6_May.pdf