Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I report most days on the app and today have been asked whether I still have periods as they are looking at links between COVID and menopause.

I think I've had mild covid and my first period when ill was 7 days (day 19) early and this month's was 5 days early (day 21). I am 46 but it seems a huge coincidence because I am normally v regular.

People might like to look at the thread 'Pandemic affecting menstrual cycle'

The UA page on the study in En is here. It hasn't been updated I saw the latest info on RTBL.

Besides the point but I have a dislike of both RTL and RTBF as representative news outlets for Belgium. I’m okay with Le Soir and L’Echo and a whole other bunch of francophone news outlets. I just can’t stand the quality of reporting. Both of them tend to behave like an extension of the PS. One of the reasons why I also dislike The Guardian’s reporting about Belgium (it’s also not very good for the Netherlands but less so). You’re better off reading a Dutch, German or even French newspaper. Both don’t do a proper job holding the politicians to account. If you split those numbers by region you’ll notice big differences. Flanders doing a whole lot better than Brussels and Wallonia. They can barely be bothered asking the relevant questions. Simple ones really: Why do we have 6 ministers (Nine or 8 – depends how you look at it- for the whole country) with a competence somewhat related to health (between the Brussels and Walloon regions – Flanders has one) and this is happening, … . Or the whole return to school debate, I also dislike the majority of the Flemish nationalists, but that doesn’t mean that everything they say or do instantly has to be discarded. So no debate. They ended up with their local speciality: nivellement par le bas. It’s just so frustrating. Another example; free laptops for poor/vulnerable children during the lock-down light. Their multiple ministers messed up to such a degree that almost all laptops ended up with Flemish/German speaking students. Honestly it would be depressing, if it wasn’t so laughable.

That said I’m not experiencing any COVID related issues. Maybe if you count the 50 € supplement (I suppose for the extra PPE; refund at the end of the year) I had to pay for seeing the dentist last week – dental erosion. I don’t think the hospitals are severely under stress either. One of my friends specialises in euthanasia/end of life care in one of the biggest hospitals. They had a relatively easy run so far; apart from three days when they transferred her to a COVID ward. Oh and credit where credit is due; I’m self-employed and I’ve already received all financial compensations from both the federal and regional government; so there’s that I suppose.

@Molteni

You need a varied diet of news in this country.

Bxl is doing especially badly. Approx 10% BE pop live in Bxl and approx 10% of cases BUT 15% of deaths in BXL and 1:4 of cases in Bxl resulting in death.

I don't know whether it's to do with most severe cases being sent to hospitals in Bxl or some commuter belt distortion - people tested in Flanders so registered as a case in Flanders but then being admitted to hospital in Bxl (for example people living in Zaventum being admitted to St Luc). I can't think of a reason why the fatality rate would be so much higher in Bxl compared to Flanders or Wallonie.

Pfrench. I got sucked into arguing on your thread! A free people seem to get the issues but not most of them.

Does anyone know where I can find out how many people in today’s death figures actually died during that period?

(Ps Educating, it was my school where a couple of kids were eating the hand sanitizer. It's Sen and a few can be known scoff the paint etc when we aren't looking.)

No urban myth, Baaaahhhhh

I also remember the newspaper article a couple of weeks ago reporting that the 111 criteria for admission to hospital for COVID had been reduced by iirc 3 levels of severity,
to tackle the isssue of people being told to wait until their lips turned blue

Several posters on the MN "Burning" lungs threads had reported weeks earlier that ambulances refused to take them,
because the hospitals would just send them away again unless their lips were turning blue

France now has 22,000 cases in hosptial ( come down a lot)
The uk now has 11,000
Deaths in hosptial france today 118
Uk deaths in hosptial 400 plus

The hosptial figures in the uk are not making sense to me! Have wondered for sometime about this and think there must be something in the late addmissions theory.

ONS to 2 May, showing hospital deaths falling, but not care homes

"Other" - presumably including those who die at home ? - is v small

Still concerning that the daily new cases in the Uk are not falling as in other countries and remaining at a higher level, daily 5-6k

==> R0 doesn't look much below 1.0 over the UK as a whole

Looking at the care home deaths, are these new cases still in care homes, meaning yet more deaths there ?
Also in some English regions, cases still haven't fallen very quickly

OK, the Uk is - sometimes ! - increasing testing, but not to near the the level of e.g. Germany
so that doesn't explain the continuing UK new case levels

If the govt holds to its 5 criteria, then lockdown looks like staying, in its main elements, for some weeks

Oh, I*ve just seen that the last several graphs I put up on the App aren't visible on Safari 🤯

This happens on MN sometimes, no idea why

I've just seen that the UK intends to start quarantining people who fly in from 14 days from the end of May.

Key workers like lorry drivers will be exempt.

It's rather late in the day isn't it?

That link is startling!
Now fewer cases in 60-69 than in some of the younger age groups.
But really need the layer between
Positive and dead.
which is Hospitalization and icu.
That is the effect of testing the key workers.

I came to same conclusion that you need to know who is getting ill now and why.
Is it care home staff/nurses/drs/ supermarket workers or teachers.
They need to improve the ppe and treat all patients as cv. Because realistically even if someone doesnt have it going in they may well do by when they leave.

Also it really annoys me when people keep saying the deaths in age xyz are low.
Well they may seem so but -lockdown so possibly in nhs capacity and you need to x12 at least if we presume 5% immunity. Doesnt make them seem so low. And that is only to get to 60%...

there isn't such a thing as 100% immunity as if you reach a certain level, perhaps 30% the virus' spread is stopped by the existing level of immunity

It would be slowed but they reckon 60% or more likely 80+.need herd immunity because it's so contagious and 1 person infects so many.

Will be interesting to follow nyc where they have 25% maybe to see if they go inti another peak.

Almost half of nrw cases are key workers, the definition of keyworkers have massively expanded though. Even taking that in to account, community spread still seems worryingly high.

Sorry if this has been said before; I was told by someone working on the stats that care home death reporting used to be a month; now it's 48 hours. Is it possible there's still delays in making sure care home data is up to date?

I listened to the select committee discussions yesterday that took place (I think) on Wednesday.

There is relative agreement from the experts that spread in the wider community is fairly under control but there are still big problems in care homes and hospitals. I suspect the testing for both of those would be spread across pillar 1 and pillar 2 so it might not be easy to pick out.

We are still only identifying (they suspect) perhaps a quarter of the cases that exist so actual figures are estimated to be around 20,000 per day. Given how much lower hospitalisation rates are now are it makes you wonder how many people were being infected per day at the peak.

The experts in the select committee briefing were fairly clear that they really need the sample data from the ONS before they can get a better handle on the numbers of people who might have/have had CV.

It was quite interesting.

Sunshine,

Unless we have local pods of immunity, based on hospital and care home workers and their whole circle of friends, family etc, I fail to see how you can have infection In one section of the community not spreading into the general community.

This is where mathematical modelling becomes really hard, as instead of modelling an epidemic, you have to measure hundreds of epidemics separated by both setting and locality, and a factor as how one affects the other.

They said there would be infection coming out of those environments (via HCPs) but that the main areas of transmission were care homes and hospitals. It’s not my opinion, just relaying the evidence (as I understood it) that the experts gave to the select committee.

They did say if I remember correctly that there was essentially a different epidemic in care homes and hospitals from that in the wider community.

The entire select committee briefing is on iPlayer.

I've read this morning that some German towns have been put on lockdown again due to the rise in infections again

Can’t seem to reconcile UK announced new cases every day and the corresponding England figures on the UK gov coronavirus page coronavirus.data.gov.uk/.
Figures for yesterday were 4,649 new cases UK total but the attached graph from the same page indicates ~1,700 new reported cases for England alone (actually totted up the total number to 1,702). It seems unlikely Scotland, Wales & NI would make up the additional nearly 3,000 cases. Can anyone explain this discrepancy or my misunderstanding? Appreciate any help.

Surely they are starting to attempt to trace all contacts of fhe infected people.
Daily testing of care home staff too would help.

It's all linked to kw and general public not wearing masks.
Is the reality care homes cant be protected and it needs to burn out (sadly) once the carers are all immune