Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Puffin I've also wondered about early cases. But I've then also considered this against the information we've gained from viral load and also considering how people socialise less in jan/feb and that maybe people were getting infected by contact with 1 person carrying the virus rather than 2/3/4+ iyswim?

Itsgettingweird I was corrected on this yesterday, it’s only those who have had a positive test, not just suspected even if put on death certificate.

@itsgettingweird
www.gov.uk/government/news/daily-death-reporting-now-includes-all-positive-covid-19-deaths

‘For the first time from today, Wednesday 29 April 2020, the government’s daily figure will include deaths that have occurred in all settings where there has been a positive COVID-19 test, including hospitals, care homes and the wider community. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales already report out-of-hospital deaths.’

Yes, Millicent government is reporting daily is. But the ONS figures include where covid has been mentioned on death certificate.

Itsgettngweird, the government have specifically said they are only announcing the number of deaths of people who have had positive tests, not of those who have Covid on their death certificates. It's carefully worded.

There will be a discrepancy between ONS numbers and announced numbers.

Yes, but the ONS reporting isn’t daily, it’s weekly, so when you said the ‘daily total’ I assumed you meant the daily reported total.

I know the discrepancy in results but what I was trying to say (not very well!) is they cannot actually hide the true figure as it will be produced 8n the end. Like with all data we have to look at it individually and as a who.e to gain a full picture.
But there is a list of questions I wish were answered to gain a better picture. If our death rate slows is it because more people get to hospital earlier Vs a true massive decrease in cases?

These stats will help us gain a truer picture of the whole pandemic as we move through it.

The government has focussed on not overwhelming the nhs. But has this actually been achieved or rather was it achieved in a way that increased death rate earlier on and contributed to when our leak occurred?

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Thursday APRIL 30th

Total UK cases: 171,253
New UK cases: 6,032
Total UK Deaths: 674
New UK Deaths: 26,771

The school issue is worrying. Our school has approximately 1800 pupils. Inner city school in a deprived area. Huge percentage of pupils do not have English as a first language which may possibly hinder understanding of the plethora of new rules they will be expected to adhere to. Further, a high percentage of kids with learning disabilities, Ditto the same issue. Also, even if all kids were able to be compliant and carried out all expectations to the letter, who is going to clean the school throughout the day. Particularly high touch areas. It's not possible. I don't see how it will be safe.

Then if we go with the untested theory that kids don't spread it. In a school of our size there's a lot of adult staff members. Still plenty of opportunities to spread the virus.

Opinions please.

oldbagface, maybe that’s a conversation for a different thread?

Can someone explain the new cases today to me please? Everything I've seen on social media this evening says BJ said we've passed the peak but there's 6000 new cases today. Isn't that 2000 more than we've had for for the past week or so?

@oldbagface there are a couple of threads going on schools under the Coronavirus topic.
Incidentally, there is no suggestion that secondary age children don't spread it, that research is about under 10s, so roughly primary age ie pre puberty.

Teller we carried out circa 30k more tests today than yesterday (that's tests not people so maybe 15-18k people) and that's nearly twice what we were testing 3-4 days ago. That's bound to statistically pick up and increase positive test rates. Previously a high percentage of people tested were already in hospital. Then care homes and also nhs and social care staff who we know were being exposed.
What it will do is show more accurate data in the weeks to come about percentage of those positive who realise hospital care and in the very sad cases die.

Teller

If you look at the new cases slide from the press conference it splits hospitalisation testing (Blue) from key worker testing (Orange).
www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-30-april-2020

You can see from that slide that severe hospitalised cases are stable or dropping and it is the milder key worker cases that have gone up.

COVID-19 lecture by Chris Whitty at Gresham College today

Video & pdf:

https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/covid-19

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/content.gresham.ac.uk/data/binary/3292/2020-04-30Whittyy_t.pdf

This would increase care home deaths

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall (BBC Newsnight)

Spoke to a couple of council leaders today.

Both spoke of the tremendous pressure that has been put on councils by NHS providers to accept older people back into care homes with "no regard for existing care home outbreaks".

This, they said, is fuelling infection rates.

It's utterly bizarre to send people to care homes when they have tested positive. Bad enough to send them home . We come back to the Nightingale hospitals here - surely this is one use for them? Or are people right when they say the entire London Nightingale hospital was a PR stunt

Placemarking

We discussed on these threads, after some of shoot's contour plots,
the possibility of relaxing measures earlier in some UK regions that have much lower than average infections & deaths,
e.g. Wales, NI and Scotland.

France are doing this geographical relaxation:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-live-news-more-cases-of-covid-linked-syndrome-in-children-as-uk-deaths-top-spain-and-france?page=with:block-5eab108c8f08f76ffc19efe1#block-5eab108c8f08f76ffc19efe1

The French government has unveiled its coronavirus map dividing the country into “green” areas, where lockdown regulations will be relaxed,
and “red” areas, where strict measures will remain in place.

This seems sensible, but I've seen a couple of politicians saying we couldn't go regionally as it would be 'unfair' the only exception may be islands as clearly its much easier to avoid people travelling a distance to take advantage.
Andy Burnham said treating London and Manchester differently wouldn't be tolerated. I forget who else I've heard discuss it.

I personally think regional leadership will be key in testing and contact tracing and I don't understand why its not happening yet.

Hi
Does anyone e have any age data, or ideally % chance of death, for this worried 21 year old poster?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/a3896109-likely-hood-of-dying-as-21-year-old?msgid=96104145#96104145

I wouldn’t have linked but some idiot has said “ooh yes, I know a 21 year old who died”.

I just posted an ONS chart on that thread with some stats to hopefully reassure her

Thank you BigChocFrenzy.

Germany's statistics bureau
have collated and released deaths up to 5 April incl.

There does NOT appear to be any spike up to that date from COVID

Charts:

1. Comparison 2020 (red curve) to 2016-2019
   2020 deaths look LOWER
   (this may change after 5 April as peak was several days later)

2. Deaths March 2020 in age groups

3. Deaths March 2019 in age groups

Charts:

1. Deaths 1-5 April 2020 in age groups

2. Deaths April 2019 in age groups