Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The French study also suggests that there were other nasty respiratory bugs circulating that could have been mistaken for COVID,
but these had a far higher % of mild symptoms and v few of the hospitalised cases

So another indication that many who thought they had COVID - and with mild symptoms - before the epidemic officially reached e.g. the Uk could be wrong

Brazil, an advanced emerging powerhouse, in BRICs and G20, would normally be expected to be among the countries most able to cope in S America

However, the irresponsibility and wilful denial of the COVID crisis by their far right President Bolsonaro has caused them to have one of the worst death rates, still climbing, no peak yet.

Even when deaths are normalised by population,
among their neighbours only Peru - with longstanding structural problems and great economic inequality - has suffered worse
and the Peruvian govt is at least proactive in following standard advice for epidemics

Thanks @FingonTheValiant and @BigChocFrenzy, sounds fascinating and useful. Being lazy and not reading it myself - how many people total tested? When, presumably just prior to lockdown? What sort of area, affluent/not, % BAME?

Bigchoc,

I am not a Brazil expert but, to be fair, in countries like Brazil, letting Covid burn may be the best strategy. They have a median age of 31.4 (latest 2015 data) and only 9% of their population is 65+, so herd immunity may be the best strategy.

Hard lockdowns in developing nations can cost more lives than they save. There are already heart breaking stories coming from South Africa of close to starvation for many people whose subsistence income has dried up.

Thank you for putting in the links BigChoc, I was doing an online class!

The French study also suggests that there were other nasty respiratory bugs circulating that could have been mistaken for COVID,

Anecdotal but we as a family had 4 separate bad viral cough infections between October and the start of feb this year. There were a lot going around.

Stawberry I’m just trying to find that info for you.

But Oise was one of the first clusters in France and were put into local lockdown on the 1st March, they’d been back at school for one week (from 24th Feb) after two weeks holiday. And the French scientists considered that this early lockdown had slowed down the epidemic significantly there. The antibody study was done from the 30th March to 3rd April. So a month after lockdown.

The French have really only reported it in terms of the antibody testing, so most reports only talk about the 661 people tested for antibodies, but they were already known to be positive. I’m not sure how many people were tested in the initial survey to work out who was positive or not,

Strawberry so the specific town was Crépy-en-Valois. Population of just over 15,000. It’s an unusually young population. Lots of families. Unemployment is in line with the national average. Median disposable income per “unit” is 21,020€. That seems pretty good to me. The level of poverty is 12%, which is low. I’ve compared it to similar size towns I’m familiar with. Crépu has about 2000€ extra disposable on average, and about 8% less poverty.

In France it is against the constitution to collect data on ethnicity, so I can’t give you a BAME breakdown, however one site has information for “foreigners” and “immigrants”. Both of which are slightly lower than national average. “Foreigners” is the official category for people like me, born overseas, with a permanent residence in France, or temporary but working or studying in France, but not seasonal workers and not boarder hoppers, and who are not French nationals. “Immigrants” is the foreigners plus the ex-foreigners who are now French citizens.

www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/1405599?geo=COM-60176+FRANCE-1

www.linternaute.com/ville/crepy-en-valois/ville-60176/demographie

larry Brazil is officially an "advanced emerging economy," not a developing nation

Big difference to say India, which has GDP per capita under $3,000 whereas Brazil is nearly $12,000

There is a vast range of possible compromise between hard lockdown
and continually mocking the crisis in public,
refusing to help stricken cities, or to order any precautions at all

e.g. the Brazilian President publicly wiping his runny nose on his hand and then shaking hands with a woman spectator

The President is completely failing in his duty to take what sensible measures can be done
Measures that even a much poorer country can do

My brother lives in Brazil & is really worried. He's lucky that they live in a decent area & can work from home.

The president tested positive & then held a huge rally where he was shaking hands with loads of people, he's worse than Trump!

Have they recalculated the previous deaths?

This chart looks quite different now.

Is there a total For today?

473

Thank you!

@ILavaYou where have you seen this? I haven’t seen it anywhere yet.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

NEW: with major caveat that these are ❗️ provisional ❗️ figures,
today’s data from monitoring report suggest excess deaths in England may have peaked in week ending 17 April.

Provisional data for week ending 24 April show very slight dip

PHE "All-Cause Mortality Surveillance"

has underlines in the name, so I hope this link works

==> Report

Nope, you have to click on report link in his tweet

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1255865248839499776

"In week 17 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall
and by age group in the 15-64 and 65+ year olds and in all regions in England
through the EuroMOMO algorithm.

In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 17.

Statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Scotland in week 15."

Nate Silverr@NateSilver538* (US stats geek)

Korea now seems to think the so-called "re-infections" it found are actually just false positives.

A lot of smart epidemiologists thought this was likely the case all along, so not a huge surprise,
but passing this along for people who freaked out earlier.

Sorry - but can someone please give me the link to the daily slides (shown on the briefing)

Thanks

@AmelieTaylor

Here is the page with daily slides. The slides for the current day are usually added after the conference.

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

@wintertravel

Thank you 🌷

So another indication that many who thought they had COVID - and with mild symptoms - before the epidemic officially reached e.g. the Uk could be wrong

Interesting. My mum mentioned in late Jan/early Feb that quite a lot of people she knows weren't well and she was surprised because everyone had had the flu vaccine. So we wondered whether it was possible that there had been early cases of covid but then why would none of those people have been hospitalised even though they felt grotty. They all recovered with no lasting effects as far as I know.

From my understanding if covid is suspected then it's added. That's without a test or not. So the daily total is those who have been tested and are confirmed to have had covid 19 at time of death and then they add on those who are registered as having dies of covid via GP death certificate or PM.

There certainly felt like they were trying to avoid admitting people to hospital at the beginning. Maybe to avoid a breech but I think a lot of it came from the fact 111 and 999 were overwhelmed but no one has ever focussed on this or questioned it.

It would be Interesting to have the data of number of people accessing nhs online, calls to gp services, calls to 111 and calls to 999 over the 3-4 week period up to the peak. Specifically from mid March to mid April.

I would also like data on those released from hospital to care homes.
I would like to know how many of those were tested for covid (and then of those who was in for non covid related illness and who was in with respiratory illness). Then of those not tested who then developed it within 2 weeks.
But also I would like data on how many were discharged when it was known they had covid. Because that is a service level decision and will have had an effect on a) number of free beds and the stat on not breaching capacity b) possibly explain why the peak has followed that of the one in hospital when many care homes locked down before the official one.

I don't feel we have enough of the nitty gritty data to explain and understand the full picture.